环境的不确定性对能源行业资本结构决策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 05:11

本文关键词： 环境的不确定性能源行业资本结构系统GMM　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济“新常态”引领能源行业的发展进入“新常态”,经济“新常态”要求加快构建清洁、高效、安全和可持续的现代能源体系的进程,使得能源行业的发展形势发生了一些明显的变化,能源企业面临着众多挑战,因此能源企业必须寻求新的突破点,以获得发展出路,保持平稳发展。环境不确定性增加了企业各种战略失败的风险,以往关于环境不确定的研究多集中于外部的客观因素,而忽略企业内部的因素。管理者作为决策者在管理中处于主导地位,其决策是否恰当,对企业的发展水平有实质性的影响。与其他行业相比,我国能源行业的发展受环境的影响比较大,作为国家的支柱产业,能源行业的健康发展对保障民生、市场经济的稳定运行具有深刻影响。因此,研究环境的不确定性对能源行业的健康发展非常有意义。近年来,针对能源行业资本结构的研究大多还是基于微观视角,同时考虑宏观和微观视角的文献非常少。论文基于宏观和微观视角,研究环境的不确定性对能源行业资本结构决策的影响。论文先对有关资本结构的影响因素进行文献综述,并分析了我国当前能源上市公司的发展状况和融资状况。论文以MM理论、权衡理论、委托代理理论、市场择时理论和信息不对称理论为理论基础,采用GDP季度数据的标准差衡量外部环境的不确定性,采用营业收入连续三年的滚动标准差来衡量内部环境的不确定性,以盈利能力、企业规模、成长性和资产担保能力为控制变量,根据证监会行业分类,选取了我国能源上市公司2008-2015年在沪深两市A股正常上市交易的107家上市公司作为研究样本,对影响能源上市公司资本结构的环境的不确定性进行了实证研究。研究结果发现:能源上市公司的资产负债率呈现上升趋势,外部环境的不确定性对资本结构具有显著的负向影响,内部环境的不确定性对资本结构也是显著的负向影响。盈利能力与资本结构呈显著负相关关系,企业规模与资本结构呈显著正相关关系,而成长性和资产担保能力与资本结构没有显著联系。最后,论文根据实证结果,结合能源行业的行业特征,提出一系列政策建议,并对研究的局限性和展望进行了阐述。
[Abstract]:The economic "new normal" leads the development of the energy industry into the "new normal", and the "new normal" of the economy calls for speeding up the process of constructing a clean, efficient, safe and sustainable modern energy system. The development situation of the energy industry has undergone some obvious changes, energy enterprises are facing many challenges, so energy enterprises must seek new breakthrough points in order to obtain a way out. Environmental uncertainty increases the risk of strategic failure. Previous studies on environmental uncertainty have focused on external objective factors. And ignore the factors within the enterprise. Managers as decision makers in the management of the dominant position, its decision-making is appropriate, has a substantial impact on the level of enterprise development. Compared with other industries. The development of energy industry in China is greatly affected by the environment. As the pillar industry of the country, the healthy development of the energy industry has a profound impact on the protection of people's livelihood and the stable operation of the market economy. The uncertainty of the environment is of great significance to the healthy development of the energy industry. In recent years, most of the research on the capital structure of the energy industry is based on the micro perspective. There are very few papers considering both macro and micro perspectives. The thesis is based on macro and micro perspectives. This paper studies the influence of environmental uncertainty on the capital structure decision of energy industry. Firstly, the paper reviews the influencing factors of capital structure. The paper is based on MM theory, trade-off theory, principal-agent theory, market timing theory and information asymmetry theory. The standard deviation of GDP quarterly data is used to measure the uncertainty of external environment, and the rolling standard deviation of operating income for three consecutive years is used to measure the uncertainty of internal environment. Growth and asset guarantee ability are control variables, according to the industry classification of CSRC. In this paper, 107 listed companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2008 to 2015 were selected as the research samples. This paper makes an empirical study on the uncertainty of the capital structure of energy listed companies. The results show that the asset-liability ratio of energy listed companies is on the rise. The uncertainty of the external environment has a significant negative impact on the capital structure, and the uncertainty of the internal environment has a significant negative impact on the capital structure. There is a significant negative correlation between profitability and the capital structure. There is a significant positive correlation between enterprise size and capital structure, while growth and asset guarantee ability have no significant relationship with capital structure. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper combines the industry characteristics of energy industry. A series of policy suggestions are put forward, and the limitations and prospects of the research are expounded.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.2

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