上海宝钢现金流风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 06:28

本文关键词： 宝钢钢铁行业现金流风险　出处：《石河子大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在我国的经济建设和社会发展方面,钢铁行业一直占据着举足轻重的地位,目前钢铁行业正处于产能过剩的“寒冬”时期,不少钢企陷入全面亏损甚至破产的困境。对于资金投入高密集,现金流量大的钢铁企业来说,钢铁企业的辉煌可以由很多因素造就,但是造成钢企破产的原因只有一个,那就是资金链的断裂。可见现金流对钢铁企业的重要性,钢铁企业可以没有好的利润,但是不能没有正的现金流,否则企业将面临现金流短缺所造成的财务困境,甚至会给企业带来破产的风险,因此现金流的平稳运转对钢铁行业有着至关重要的作用。本文以我国钢铁行业的龙头企业宝钢股份有限公司作为案例公司,深入探讨企业所存在的现金流风险并提出应对措施。首先,对国内外文献进行梳理总结,大部分学者认为现金流风险与企业价值有着密不可分的关系,对现金流风险的管理不善会给企业带来不同程度的财务困境,从而影响到企业的价值,尤其针对已经步入“寒冬”的钢铁企业。目前,能否对现金流风险的有效管理关乎着钢铁企业的生死存亡。本文希望通过研究,有助于深化对现金流风险管理的认识,为钢铁企业管理现金流风险提供一些参考。其次,总结本文所使用的相关概念和理论基础,其中包括对钢铁行业、现金流、现金流风险的概念界定以及对DSO理论和最佳现金持有量理论的阐述;再次,在对钢铁行业现金流风险诱因进行详细分析后,选取25家A股上市钢铁企业,运用财务指标法对钢铁行业现金流结构和现金流各项能力进行分析;最后,对案例公司宝钢股份进行介绍,运用财务指标法和比较分析法对案例公司的现金流结构状况、现金流各项能力以及导致现金流风险的诱因进行了详细的分析,运用主成份分析法构建宝钢现金流风险预警系统。在前述分析的基础上,总结本文的研究结论。在近期,由于汇率波动大,钢铁产品市场需求降低、宝钢采取宽松信用政策和钢铁价格大幅下降等风险诱因的存在,宝钢存在一定程度的现金流风险,其中包括现金流的短期偿债能力不足,流动能力较差,成长能力不稳定和收益能力降低等风险。最后,针对以上现金流风险问题提供相应的应对措施,主要措施如下。首先要成立专门的现金流风险管理机构,完善宝钢审计体系的同时还要提升产品竞争力,这样才能巩固市场领先地位。其次,加强汇率风险管控;聚焦海外目标区域,提升海外市场竞争力。最后,建立完善现金流风险监控体系。
[Abstract]:In China's economic construction and social development, the iron and steel industry has been occupying a pivotal position. At present, the steel industry is in the "cold winter" of overcapacity. For iron and steel enterprises with high capital investment and large cash flow, the glory of steel enterprises can be created by many factors, but there is only one reason for the failure of steel enterprises. That is the breakage of the capital chain. We can see the importance of cash flow to iron and steel enterprises. Iron and steel enterprises can have no good profits, but not without positive cash flows, otherwise the enterprises will face the financial difficulties caused by the shortage of cash flow. Even bring the risk of bankruptcy to the enterprise, so the smooth operation of cash flow plays a vital role in the steel industry. This paper takes Baosteel Co., Ltd, the leading enterprise of China's steel industry, as a case company. This paper discusses the cash flow risk in enterprises and puts forward some countermeasures. Firstly, the paper summarizes the literature at home and abroad, and most scholars think that cash flow risk is closely related to the enterprise value. The mismanagement of cash flow risk will bring different financial distress to the enterprise, which will affect the value of the enterprise, especially for the iron and steel enterprise that has entered the "cold winter". This paper hopes to deepen the understanding of cash flow risk management and provide some reference for iron and steel enterprises to manage cash flow risk. This paper summarizes the relevant concepts and theoretical basis used in this paper, including the definition of the steel industry, cash flow, cash flow risk, as well as the DSO theory and the best cash holding theory. After detailed analysis of cash flow risk inducement of iron and steel industry, 25 A-share listed iron and steel enterprises are selected to analyze the cash flow structure and cash flow ability of steel industry by using financial index method. This paper introduces the stock of Baosteel, and analyzes the cash flow structure, the ability of cash flow and the inducement of cash flow risk by using the method of financial index and comparative analysis. The cash flow risk early warning system of Baosteel is constructed by principal component analysis. On the basis of the above analysis, the conclusion of this paper is summarized. In the near future, due to the large exchange rate fluctuations, the market demand for iron and steel products is reduced. Baosteel adopts loose credit policy and the existence of risk incentives such as steel price drop, Baosteel has a certain degree of cash flow risk, including insufficient short-term cash flow solvency, poor liquidity, Finally, to address the above cash flow risk, the main measures are as follows. First, set up a special cash flow risk management organization. To improve the audit system of Baosteel, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of products so as to consolidate the market leading position. Secondly, we should strengthen exchange rate risk control, focus on overseas target areas, and enhance the competitiveness of overseas markets. Finally, Establish and improve the cash flow risk monitoring system.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;F406.7;F272.3

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