基于EROI方法的榆林市煤炭投入产出评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 07:36

本文关键词： 煤炭生产投入产出 EROI评价模型预测　出处：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在对煤炭生产可行性进行评估时常常选择财务指标作为评判标准,但财务指标仅能评价煤炭生产的经济价值而忽略了煤炭作为自然资源的生态价值。EROI(能源投入回报)方法既能够评价煤炭生产活动的经济效率,还能评价煤炭生产活动的生态价值。为此,本文以榆林市为研究对象,利用三阶EROI模型对煤炭生产的投入产出进行实证研究,主要工作和结论如下:(1)系统的分析了榆林市煤炭资源现状和煤炭开采现状。通过实地调研和文献资料梳理,分析了榆林市煤炭资源赋存条件、煤炭开采的技术、成本、资金以及环境承载条件现状,指出环境污染严重、生态失衡加剧、投入产出效率不高是制约榆林市煤炭行业可持续发展的主要问题。(2)构建了榆林市煤炭生产的三阶EROI评价模型。根据榆林市煤炭产业特征和煤炭生产现状,以煤炭开采洗选业为EROI研究边界,构建可以将环境治理投入考虑在内的煤炭生产三阶EROI评价模型。其中三阶EROI评价模型能源产出包括原煤,能源投入包括直接能源投入、间接能源投入、劳动力投入和环境治理投入。(3)对榆林市煤炭生产的三阶EROI评价模型进行了实证分析。首先,基于1995年至2015年间的历史数据对榆林市煤炭生产三阶EROI值的历史趋势进行分析。其次,选择ARMA模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和ARMA模型与灰色GM(1,1)模型的组合模型对榆林市煤炭生产的三阶EROI值进行预测。热当量法计算的三阶EROI预测结果表明,在2018年至2020年期间小于1,Divisia加总法计算的三阶EROI预测结果表明,在2016年至2020年期间小于1。由于当EROI值小于1时,煤炭生产活动的能源投入大于能源产出,榆林市煤炭生产活动并不能给社会带来净能源。以上研究成果对煤炭资源富集区的煤炭生产投入产出评价研究具有重要参考价值。
[Abstract]:In the evaluation of coal production feasibility often choose financial indexes as the evaluation standard, but financial indicators can only evaluate the economic value of coal production and ignore the ecological value of coal as.EROI natural resources (energy return) method can evaluate the economic efficiency of coal production, but also the ecological value evaluation of coal production activities for this. This paper, taking Yulin city as the research object, carries on the empirical research by using the three order EROI model of input and output of coal production, the main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) the system analyzes the status and present situation of coal mining of coal resources in Yulin city. Through the investigation and analysis of the literature review, the occurrence conditions of coal resource in Yulin city coal mining, technology, cost, capital and environmental carrying conditions, pointed out that the serious environmental pollution, ecological imbalance, input-output efficiency is not high About Yulin City, the main problems of the sustainable development of coal industry. (2) to construct three order EROI evaluation of coal production in Yulin city. According to the model of Yulin coal industry characteristics and the current status of coal production, coal mining coal washing industry for the study of EROI boundary, construction will produce three order EROI evaluation model of environmental governance investment account of coal the three order EROI. The evaluation model of energy output including coal, energy inputs including direct energy input, indirect energy input, labor input and environmental governance. (3) the three order EROI evaluation model of coal production in Yulin city conducted empirical analysis. First, analyze the historical trends of Yulin's coal production of three order EROI the value of historical data from 1995 to 2015. On the second, choosing ARMA model, gray GM (1,1) model and ARMA model and grey GM (1,1) of Yulin coal production combination model The three order EROI value prediction. Three order EROI prediction calculation results of thermal equivalent method showed that in the period from 2018 to 2020 is less than 1, three order EROI prediction results of Divisia sum method showed that in the period from 2016 to 2020 due to less than 1. when the EROI value is less than 1, the coal production activities of the energy input is greater than the energy output Yulin City, coal production can not bring net energy to the society. The research of coal production input-output evaluation the above research results on coal resource rich region has important reference value.

【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21;F406.7

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