温室年均净现值法投资决策分析与国外经验借鉴

发布时间：2018-03-09 05:26

本文选题：温室投资　切入点：时间价值　出处：《世界农业》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为探究温室投资风险与报酬率之间的关系,将时间价值和风险报酬这两项基本价值因素引入温室风险管理研究,并借鉴国外净现值投资决策理论,运用投资评价的净现值法和时间价值、风险报酬的测算方法,分别对2014—2015年浙江省杭州市郊3种类型温室的投资回收额、期望报酬率、风险报酬率、净现值、年均净现值进行计算和分析。结果表明,资金时间价值上,3种类型温室的投资回收额从低到高依次为:单栋塑料温室连栋塑料温室玻璃自控温室。投资风险价值上,玻璃自控温室的投资总报酬率最高。3种类型温室的期望报酬率介于14.25%~17%,单栋塑料温室期望报酬率的标准离差最小,投资风险也最小。玻璃自控温室的年均净现值最大,投资方案最优,但其投资回收期较长。针对不同类型温室提出调整温室产业结构、优化投资组合、规避投资风险的建议,以期为中国温室投资决策分析提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the relationship between greenhouse investment risk and return rate, two basic value factors, time value and risk reward, are introduced into greenhouse risk management, and foreign NPV investment decision theory is used for reference. Using the method of net present value and time value of investment evaluation, the calculation method of risk reward, the amount of investment recovery, the expected rate of return, the rate of return on risk, the net present value of three types of greenhouse in Hangzhou suburb of Zhejiang Province in 2014-2015, respectively, The average annual net present value (NPV) is calculated and analyzed. The results show that the investment recovery amount of the three types of greenhouses in the time value of funds is from low to high: single plastic greenhouse, multi-span plastic greenhouse glass self-control greenhouse, and investment risk value. The total return rate of investment is the highest in the glass self-controlled greenhouse, the expected return rate of the three types of greenhouse is between 14.25 and 17, the standard deviation of the expected return rate of the single plastic greenhouse is the least, and the investment risk is also the smallest. The annual net present value of the glass self-controlled greenhouse is the largest. The investment scheme is the best, but the payback period is long. The suggestion of adjusting the greenhouse industrial structure, optimizing the investment portfolio and avoiding the investment risk is put forward in view of different types of greenhouse, in order to provide scientific basis for the decision analysis of greenhouse investment in China.
【作者单位】：浙江农林大学暨阳学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“面向电商供应链的温室生态经济系统价值流改善途径与方法”(编号:15YJCZH183) 浙江省自然科学基金项目“杭州市郊连栋塑料温室作物-环境-经济系统耦合关系及其价值流动效益分析”(编号:LQ14C130004) 浙江农林大学暨阳学院科研发展基金预研项目“基于价值流动的温室经济最优管理与成本控制”(编号:JYYY1401) 大学生科技创新活动计划项目“大棚蔬菜种植成本与利润核算方法”(编号:JYKC1522)
【分类号】：F302.6;F327

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