制造业上市公司财务危机阶段性预警的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-30 11:13

  本文选题：财务危机　切入点：阶段性　出处：《财会月刊》2014年18期

【摘要】：财务危机的形成具有阶段性特征,有必要根据所选取指标表现出的差异性来判断不同的财务危机阶段,从而对财务危机进行阶段性预警。本文选取了我国2010~2012年首次因财务状况异常而被*ST的43家制造业上市公司作为财务危机组样本,按照1∶1原则以同期43家非ST公司作为配对组样本,运用财务和非财务指标进行阶段性分析。研究发现:在财务危机爆发前五年,两组公司显著性差异指标在各年是不一样的,随着时间的推移,显著性差异指标个数呈现出一个逐渐增多的趋势;同一预警变量在不同阶段模型中的系数也表现出很大差异。
[Abstract]:The formation of financial crisis has the characteristics of stages, it is necessary to judge different stages of financial crisis according to the difference of the selected indicators. In this paper, 43 listed manufacturing companies whose financial situation is abnormal from 2010 to 2012 are selected as the sample of financial crisis group. According to 1:1 principle, 43 non-St companies in the same period were used as matched group samples, and financial and non-financial indexes were used to analyze the stage. The study found that the significant difference indexes of the two groups were different in each year five years before the outbreak of financial crisis. With the passage of time, the number of significant difference indexes shows a trend of increasing gradually, and the coefficients of the same early warning variable in different stages of the model also show great differences.
【作者单位】： 绍兴文理学院经济与管理学院;宁波大学商学院;
【基金】：浙江省自然科学基金项目(项目编号:LQ13G020007)的研究成果之一
【分类号】：F406.72;F224
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本文编号：1685671