耀华玻璃股份有限公司财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 14:34

本文选题：财务风险预警 + 主成分分析法　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：现代公司所处的经营环境比较复杂,使得公司时刻面临多种风险,其中最关键的风险是财务风险。如果公司不能及时发现已经存在或潜在的风险并进行化解,会给公司正常的经营活动带来不良影响,严重的还公司的其他利益相关者造成损失,进而会波及到其他行业。而防范与化解财务风险很重要的一项措施就是公司建立合适有效的财务预警模型来监测自身财务状况,该模型应该能够使公司管理者及早识别财务风险的征兆,并及时采取措施、调整经营策略,从而来改善自身经营状况,尽可能的减少损失。因此找出适用公司自身的财务预警方法意义重大,这不仅可以帮助企业更好的发展,还有助于改善我国经济环境。本文在总结了国内外学者对公司经营状况进行风险预警研究的基础上,对财务风险预警的相关理论进行回顾。考虑到对耀华玻璃进行财务风险预警管理的适用性,选择了结合主成分分析法和功效系数法两种基本方法来构建财务风险预警模型,同时具体分析了所选两种方法的基本应用原理。在模型的构建过程中,首先依据公司特点建立了适用于耀华玻璃财务风险预警的指标体系,选取该公司5年的财务数据进行指标计算;其次,运用主成分分析法确定了各项指标的权重;然后,结合功效系数法确定功效系数和变量标准值,对耀华玻璃的财务风险进行预警研究。最后,根据耀华玻璃多年的财务数据,对所建预警研究模型的有效性进行了验证。通过对耀华玻璃的经营现状从偿债能力、盈利能力、资产运营效率等方面的具体分析,结果证明所建立的财务风险预警模型的确可以反映出该公司的财务风险程度,进而促使管理层及时采取防范措施。该模型的建立从微观层面来看可以有效的帮助耀华玻璃公司提高自身抵抗财务风险能力,从宏观层面来看也能为建材整个行业的其他公司财务风险的控制提供一定的理论依据和实证支持。
[Abstract]:The modern company is in a complex operating environment, which makes the company always face a variety of risks, among which the most critical risk is financial risk.If the company can not find the existing or potential risks and resolve them in time, it will bring adverse effects to the normal business activities of the company, which will seriously cause losses to other stakeholders of the company, and then will spread to other industries.One of the most important measures to prevent and resolve financial risks is that companies should establish appropriate and effective financial warning models to monitor their own financial situation. The model should enable managers to identify the signs of financial risks as early as possible.And timely measures to adjust business strategies to improve their own business situation, as much as possible to reduce losses.Therefore, it is of great significance to find out the financial early warning method of the company itself, which can not only help enterprises to develop better, but also help to improve the economic environment of our country.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the risk early warning of the company, this paper reviews the relevant theories of financial risk early warning.Considering the applicability of financial risk early warning management for Yaohua Glass, two basic methods, principal component analysis method and efficacy coefficient method, are selected to construct the financial risk early warning model.At the same time, the basic application principle of the two methods is analyzed in detail.In the process of constructing the model, firstly, according to the characteristics of the company, the index system of financial risk early warning for Yaohua glass is established, and the financial data of the company for 5 years are selected to calculate the index.The weight of each index is determined by principal component analysis, and then the financial risk of Yaohua glass is studied by using the efficiency coefficient method to determine the efficiency coefficient and the standard value of variables.Finally, based on the financial data of Yaohua Glass for many years, the validity of the model is verified.By analyzing the current situation of Yaohua Glass from the aspects of solvency, profitability and efficiency of assets operation, the results show that the established early-warning model of financial risk can indeed reflect the degree of financial risk of the company.And then urge management to take preventive measures in time.The establishment of the model from the micro level can effectively help Yaohua Glass Company to improve its ability to resist financial risks.From the macro level, it can also provide some theoretical basis and empirical support for the control of financial risk of other companies in the building materials industry.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.71;F406.7

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