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火电建设项目融资动态风险研究

发布时间:2018-04-28 00:44

  本文选题:火电 + 建设项目 ; 参考:《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文


【摘要】:火力发电现今仍然是我国电力能源来源的主力。在我国其他电力发电量占全部电力发电量的比重仅为30%左右。火电企业的发展对我国国民经济社会的发展具有重大的作用。由于火力发电具有发电量大、技术成熟、厂址限制少等特点,在相当长的一段时期内,火力发电的发展和建设仍然是一项重要的议题。对火电建设项目融资风险的分析和管理,有利于降低火电建设项目的建设成本,对于火电建设的发展和项目融资的多样性具有重要作用。本文从动态的角度来对火电建设项目融资风险进行分析和预测,对于火电项目的建设和火电企业的发展具有一定的理论和现实意义。任何项目的建设都会面临到经济、社会、技术、政治等相关的风险,火电建设项目在具有共性风险的同时,也具有其独特性,并且在风险的影响因子方面也具有不同于其他建设项目的特点。对风险缺乏合理分析和预测的项目,很容易出现偏差,从而造成资源的浪费和企业或者国家的损失。经过对文献的阅读和整理,本人发现,现今对火电建设项目融资风险的研究,对风险的动态性考虑较少。火电建设项目融资风险是不断变化的,对其研究如果仅仅限定在某一个时段,就会对火电建设项目决策产生不利的影响。本文将火电建设项目融资的风险看成一个完整的系统,并对系统进行细分,形成不同的风险子系统,对子系统之间的关系进行研究和分析,以一种动态的视角来分析项目融资风险的变化。首先分析了现今对火电建设项目融资风险研究的背景和意义,进一步对国内外相关研究现状进行分析和整理,考虑到风险的动态性问题,对国内国外相关论文进行阅读和分析,发现相关的研究较少,从而提出系统动力学的方法和优势,以及对风险动态性研究的重要性。其次建立了火电建设项目融资动态风险的系统动力学模型,并将其细分为不同的风险子系统,对各个子系统的影响因子以及各个子系统之间的相互影响进行分析,通过不同的关系建立相应的逻辑函数。最后对所建立的模型进行实证研究,表明火电建设项目融资动态风险模型具有一定的合理性和科学性,同时为火电建设项目融资的风险规避提出了合理化建议。
[Abstract]:Thermal power generation is still the main source of power energy in China. In our country, the proportion of other electric power generation is only about 30%. The development of thermal power enterprises plays an important role in the development of our national economy and society. The development and construction of thermal power generation is still an important issue for a long period of time due to its characteristics of large power generation, mature technology and limited site. The analysis and management of the financing risk of thermal power construction project will help to reduce the construction cost of thermal power construction project and play an important role in the development of thermal power construction and the diversity of project financing. This paper analyzes and predicts the financing risk of thermal power construction project from the dynamic point of view, which has certain theoretical and practical significance for the construction of thermal power project and the development of thermal power enterprise. The construction of any project will face economic, social, technological, political and other related risks. Thermal power construction projects have their own unique characteristics as well as common risks. And the risk factors also have different characteristics from other construction projects. Projects that lack reasonable analysis and prediction of risks are prone to deviations, resulting in waste of resources and loss of enterprises or countries. After reading and sorting out the literature, I find that the research on the financing risk of thermal power construction project has little consideration on the dynamic nature of the risk. The financing risk of thermal power construction project is constantly changing. If the research is limited to a certain period of time, it will have a negative impact on the decision of thermal power construction project. In this paper, the risk of thermal power construction project financing is regarded as a complete system, and the system is subdivided to form different risk subsystems, and the relationship between the subsystems is studied and analyzed. This paper analyzes the change of project financing risk from a dynamic perspective. First of all, it analyzes the background and significance of the research on the financing risk of thermal power construction project, and further analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad, considering the dynamic problem of the risk, reading and analyzing the related papers at home and abroad. There are few related researches, so the methods and advantages of system dynamics and the importance of risk dynamics research are put forward. Secondly, the system dynamic model of dynamic risk of thermal power construction project financing is established, and it is subdivided into different risk subsystems. The influence factors of each subsystem and the interaction between each subsystem are analyzed. The corresponding logical functions are established through different relationships. Finally, the empirical study on the established model shows that the dynamic risk model of thermal power construction project financing is reasonable and scientific, and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the risk avoidance of thermal power construction project financing.
【学位授予单位】:华北电力大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F426.61;F406.7

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