股权集中度、自由现金流与过度投资

发布时间：2018-05-01 22:41

本文选题：产能过剩 + 股权集中度　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：《中国产业经济2015年度报告》指出,2015年我国产能过剩的矛盾较上一年更为严重,由过度投资引发的产能过剩已经对我国的宏观经济产生巨大的影响,产能过剩总量的加剧和越来越多过剩行业的增加,已成为阻碍我国经济稳定增长的巨大阻力。2015年,工信部公布我国产能过剩行业有钢铁、煤炭、电解铝、水泥、平板玻璃、船舶等行业。同时,近年来我国正在不断着力推进落实供给侧结构性改革,并且围绕“三去一补一降”五大任务推进方案落地,使得去产能成为当务之急。因此结合该背景,本文基于产能过剩类上市公司当前普遍存在的过度投资现象,探寻自由现金流与过度投资的关系,并引入股权集中度,探寻三者之间的关系,试图为缓解我国产能过剩类上市公司的过度投资问题提供建议。本文首先着眼于国内外现有的研究,对股权集中度、自由现金流与过度投资的相关文献进行分析,为本文的研究奠定理论基础和提供指导方向;接着在自由现金流假说、委托代理理论和信息不对称理论等理论基础上,对股权集中度、自由现金流与过度投资相互之间的关系进行详细的理论分析,并提出相应的假设。在实证部分,本文选用产能过剩类上市公司2008—2015年共824个平衡面板数据作为研究样本,借鉴Richardson模型来对过度投资进行衡量,即取模型残差作为被解释变量过度投资,进而选取了股权集中度、自由现金流以及控制变量构建多元回归模型,借助Stata统计软件进行多种分析后得出结论:自由现金流与过度投资呈显著正相关关系;当公司自由现金流为正时,更容易发生过度投资的行为;股权集中度可以有效抑制自由现金流与过度投资之间的相关关系。最后,本文根据研究结论,为我国产能过剩类上市公司的转型升级提出了切实可行的建议,主要表明我国产能过剩类上市公司在运营过程中应合理运用自由现金流和有效把控股权集中度,且国家应进一步深化改革,继续淘汰落后产能并消化过剩产能;同时本文文末也分析了本文研究存在的局限性与未来研究方向。
[Abstract]:The "Annual report on China's Industrial economy 2015" points out that the contradiction of overcapacity in China in 2015 is more serious than that in the previous year, and overcapacity caused by overinvestment has had a huge impact on China's macro-economy. The aggravation of total overcapacity and the increase of more and more overcapacity industries have become a great obstacle to the steady growth of our economy. In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that China's overcapacity industries include steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum, cement and flat glass. Shipping and other industries At the same time, in recent years, our country is constantly pushing forward the implementation of supply-side structural reform, and focusing on the "three go, one supplement, one drop" five major tasks to promote the landing of the plan, making deproductivity become a top priority. Therefore, based on the overinvestment phenomenon of overcapacity listed companies, this paper explores the relationship between free cash flow and overinvestment, and introduces equity concentration to explore the relationship between them. This paper attempts to provide suggestions for alleviating the overinvestment of overcapacity listed companies in China. This paper first focuses on the existing research at home and abroad, and analyzes the relevant literature on equity concentration, free cash flow and overinvestment, which lays a theoretical foundation and provides guidance for this study; then, in the free cash flow hypothesis, On the basis of principal-agent theory and information asymmetry theory, this paper makes a detailed theoretical analysis of the relationship among ownership concentration, free cash flow and overinvestment, and puts forward the corresponding assumptions. In the empirical part, this paper selects 824 equilibrium panel data of overcapacity listed companies from 2008 to 2015 as the research sample, and uses Richardson model to measure the overinvestment, that is, taking the residual of the model as the explained variable of overinvestment. Then we select the ownership concentration, free cash flow and control variables to build multiple regression model, with the help of Stata statistical software to carry out a variety of analysis: free cash flow and overinvestment has a significant positive correlation; When the company's free cash flow is positive, it is more likely to overinvest, and equity concentration can effectively restrain the correlation between free cash flow and overinvestment. Finally, according to the research conclusions, this paper puts forward practical suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of overcapacity listed companies in China. It mainly indicates that China's overcapacity listed companies should make rational use of free cash flow and effective concentration of controlling equity in the course of operation, and the country should further deepen the reform, continue to eliminate backward production capacity and digest excess capacity; At the end of this paper, the limitations of this study and the future research direction are also analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F425

【参考文献】