四川省M天然气分布式能源项目财务可行性研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 23:23

本文选题：天然气分布式能源项目 + 冷热电三联供　；参考：《电子科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年3月15日,中共中央国务院发布关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见(中发[2015]9号文件),明确提出积极发展分布式能源,全面放开用户侧分布式能源市场。天然气分布式能源是建设在用户端或用户负荷中心的天然气综合利用系统,以热电冷联产技术为基础,与配电网和天然气管网组网运行,并向一定区域内的用户或特定用户同时提供电力、蒸汽、热水和空调冷水等能源服务。天然气分布式能源是以资源、环境效益最大化、以供需最佳确定匹配方式和容量的系统,具备现代能源系统高效、安全、低碳、绿色、集约、精细化、智能化的特点。本文通过对四川省M天然气分布式能源项目进行财务可行性研究,为该项目的建设提供了重要依据,具有重要的理论和工程指导意义。本文分为六章。第一章主要研究本文的背景、投资项目概况、内容框架和主要意义;第二章主要研究天然气分布式能源面临的投资环境,采用波特五力分析法分析了四川省天然气分布式能源市场;第三章主要研究M天然气分布式能源项目的技术方案;第四章主要研究该项目的财务评价;第五章主要研究项目的风险评价及防范措施;第六章是本文的结论,并从可持续发展的角度为行业健康、有序发展提出建议。本文依据对M天然气分布式能源项目的用能数据分析,本项目规划建设2套60兆瓦等级燃气-蒸汽联合循环分布式能源机组,工程总装机容量109兆瓦,项目建成并投产后,全年直供电量14520万千瓦时,上网电量为36678.68万千瓦时,售蒸汽量为22.77万吨,售冷量为152.6万吉焦。在天然气价格1.77元/立方米,上网电价613元/兆瓦时,直供电价560元/兆瓦时,售冷价73.45元/吉焦,供蒸汽价格220元/吨的条件下,项目投资内部收益率8.39%,项目投资净现值2595.09万元(基准收益率=8%),项目资本金内部收益率12.5%,项目资本金净现值6440.84万元(基准收益率=10%),满足相关企业的投资标准,论证出本项目具备投资可行性。并对天然气价格、售电价格、供热(冷)价格、总投资等因素进行敏感性分析,分析出项目具备较强的抗风险能力。
[Abstract]:On March 15, 2015, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued some opinions on further deepening the reform of the electric power system (Zhongfa [2015] No. 9), which clearly proposed the active development of distributed energy and the opening up of the user-side distributed energy market in an all-round way. Natural gas distributed energy is a comprehensive utilization system of natural gas built on the user side or user load center. It is based on the cogeneration technology of heat, electricity and cooling, and runs with the distribution network and the natural gas network. It also provides power, steam, hot water, air conditioning and other energy services to users or specific users in a given area. Natural gas distributed energy is a system based on the maximization of resource and environmental benefit and the best matching mode and capacity between supply and demand. It has the characteristics of high efficiency, safety, low carbon, green, intensive, fine and intelligent in modern energy system. In this paper, the financial feasibility of M natural gas distributed energy project in Sichuan Province is studied, which provides an important basis for the construction of the project and has important theoretical and engineering guiding significance. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter mainly studies the background of this paper, the investment project overview, the content framework and the main significance; the second chapter mainly studies the natural gas distributed energy investment environment, This paper analyzes the distributed energy market of natural gas in Sichuan Province by using Porter's five-force analysis method, the third chapter mainly studies the technical scheme of M natural gas distributed energy project, the fourth chapter mainly studies the financial evaluation of the project. The fifth chapter mainly studies the risk evaluation and preventive measures of the project, the sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper, and puts forward some suggestions for the healthy and orderly development of the industry from the perspective of sustainable development. Based on the analysis of energy use data of M natural gas distributed energy project, this project plans to build 2 sets of distributed energy units with a total installed capacity of 109 MW for 60 MW grade gas-steam combined cycle. After the project is completed and put into production, For the whole year, the direct power supply is 145.2 million kilowatt-hours, the Internet power is 366.7868 million kilowatt-hours, the steam volume is 227700 tons, and the cooling capacity is 1.526 million gigajoules. When the price of natural gas is 1.77 yuan / cubic meter, the electricity price is 613 yuan / megawatt, the direct supply price is 560 yuan / megawatt, the cold price is 73.45 yuan / gigai, and the steam price is 220 yuan / ton. The internal rate of return on project investment is 8.39 yuan, the net present value of project investment is 25.9509 million yuan (benchmark rate of return is 8%), the internal rate of return on project capital is 12.5 yuan, and the net present value of project capital is 64.4084 million yuan (benchmark rate of return is 10%), meeting the investment standards of relevant enterprises, It is proved that the project has the feasibility of investment. The sensitivity analysis of natural gas price, electricity price, heating (cold) price, total investment and so on, shows that the project has strong ability to resist risks.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F406.7

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