农业供给侧结构性改革视角下—吉林省玉米成本收益分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 10:40

本文选题：玉米成本 + 玉米收益　；参考：《吉林农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为国家粮食主产区,玉米一直以来都是吉林省的主要粮食作物,无论是种植面积还是产量在全国范围内均据前列地位。近年来,由于宏观经济增长趋缓,国内玉米库存积压与国外玉米大量进口并存导致国内玉米库存量居高不下,在多重因素影响下,玉米价格大幅下降,农民种粮收入急剧下滑,新一轮粮食“卖难”重现。在去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板的背景下,研究玉米的生产成本收益对于促进供给侧结构性改革、促进玉米种植结构改革也具有重要的意义。本文根据统计年鉴的相关数据,在对吉林省的玉米生产现状和比较优势进行分析的基础上,对玉米的成本收益进行了详细的分析,同时运用多元线性回归对吉林省玉米成本收益的几个主要影响因素进行了深入研究和分析,最后根据研究结果,对提高玉米种植收益,土地利用率,降低玉米成本提出建议和措施。具体研究内容如下:第一章是绪论,对本文的研究背景及意义以及文献综述进行阐述,说明本文运用比较优势法和线性回归分析等方法对吉林省玉米成本收益进行分析。第二章是玉米生产现状及比较优势分析部分,主要是利用近10年统计年鉴中的数据,对吉林省玉米生产现状进行分析。结果表明吉林省玉米自然生产条件优越,耕地集中,生产技术水平较高;玉米生产在吉林省粮食生产以及全国玉米生产具有绝对比较优势。第三章对吉林省玉米的生产成本收益进行了详细的分析,一方面,通过对我国各玉米主产省的玉米生产成本和收益分析。结果发现,吉林省玉米生产每亩平均主产品产量、产品产值均高于全国平均水平,现金收益、每50公斤主产品出售价格略低于全国平均水平,但净利润、成本利润率则低于全国平均水平50%左右,可见吉林省生产玉米虽然产值产量上占有优势,但亩均收益具有明显的劣势。第四章是建立多元线性回归方程,运用SPSS17.0统计软件,运用多元线性回归对影响吉林省玉米成本收益的因素进行分析。结果表明:在其他条件不变的情况下,玉米的人工成本、土地成本、单产、售价对净利润影响最为显著。第五章是结论与建议,主要在总结本文结论的同时,提出合理调整玉米生产结构,实现玉米专业化、规模化生产;完善玉米种植支持体系,实现玉米高单产种植;积极探索各种有效措施,抑制玉米生产成本速度等建议。
[Abstract]:As the main grain producing area of the country, corn has always been the main grain crop in Jilin province. Both the planting area and the yield are all in the forefront of the country. In recent years, the coexistence of domestic corn stock backlog and a large number of foreign corn imports lead to high domestic corn inventory due to the slow growth of macro economic growth. Under the influence of heavy factors, the price of corn has fallen sharply, the farmers' grain income has fallen sharply, and the new round of grain "difficult to sell" reappears. In the background of going to capacity, going to stock, deleveraging, reducing cost and complying the short board, it is of great significance to study the production cost and income of Maize to promote the structural reform of supply side and promote the reform of corn planting structure. Based on the related data of statistical yearbook, based on the analysis of the current situation and comparative advantage of maize production in Jilin Province, this paper analyzes the cost and benefit of Maize in detail. At the same time, it makes a thorough study and Analysis on several main influence factors of the cost income of Maize in Jilin Province by multiple linear regression, and finally according to the research. As a result, some suggestions and measures are put forward to improve the yield of corn planting, land use rate and reduce the cost of corn. The first chapter is introduction, the background and significance of this paper and the literature review are expounded. It shows that this paper uses comparative advantage method and linear regression analysis to improve the cost income of Maize in Jilin province. The second chapter is the present situation of maize production and comparative advantage analysis, mainly using the data in the statistical yearbook of the last 10 years to analyze the current situation of maize production in Jilin province. The results show that the natural production conditions of Maize in Jilin province are superior, the cultivated land is concentrated, and the technical level of the production is high; the corn production in Jilin province grain production and the whole country The corn production has an absolute comparative advantage. The third chapter analyses the production cost and income of Maize in Jilin Province in detail. On the one hand, through the analysis of the corn production cost and income of the main maize production provinces in China, it is found that the average output of the main products per mu in Jilin corn production is higher than the national average, and the cash is higher than the national average. The yield per 50 kg of the main product is slightly lower than the national average, but the net profit and the cost profit rate are lower than the national average of about 50%. It can be seen that the output of corn production in Jilin occupies an advantage, but the yield per mu has obvious disadvantages. The fourth chapter is to build a multiple linear regression equation and use SPSS17.0 statistical software. The factors that affect the cost and income of Maize in Jilin province are analyzed by multiple linear regression. The results show that, under the condition of other conditions, the artificial cost of corn, the land cost, the single yield and the price have the most significant influence on the net profit. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, and the main reason is to make a reasonable adjustment of Maize at the same time. The production structure can realize maize specialization and large-scale production, perfect the corn planting support system, realize maize high yield planting, actively explore various effective measures and restrain the cost speed of maize production.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11;F302.6

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