西安明珠家居有限公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 03:01

本文选题：财务危机 + 因子分析　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：财务危机预警是真正从企业财务的角度出发,研究各种财务信息数据和企业运营状况,从中找出各种危机问题,提的预警并加以纠正解决的一项重要工作。财务危机预警相关研究在国内外一直是非常受重视的课题内容。相关研究不但有学术方面的意义,还可以产生巨大的社会价值。在我国经济大环境中,企业的发展情况关系到了投资人、债权人的利益,因此针对其财务情况加以分析意义极为重大。而且近些年互联网的兴起让实体销售企业受到了巨大冲击,网络购物占据了一部分市场份额。四安明珠家居有限公司也受到了影响,为该公司建立财务危机预警模型迫不及待。本文首先介绍了论文的研究背景及意义、财务危机预警的相关理论知识,通过实际调研与访谈对西安明朱家居有限公司进行了解，介绍了该公司财务危机管理现状并分析当中存在的问题。其次,从宏观环境因素、行业环境因素、经营因素、财务因素四个方面分析了西安明珠家居有限公司形成财务危机的影响因素,运用专家打分法确定了西安明珠家居有限公司财务危机的七个主要影响因素并确定了财务危机预警指标体系,该体系包括偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力、成长能力和获取现金流能力五方面的预警指标以及两个非财务指标。再次,本文利用我国 22家批发零售业上市公司已经审计的公开披露的财务数据为基本的资料信息，并利用数理统计的方法对指标变量进行了科学的筛选,使用因子分析法来确定主因子,并将因子得分设置成主因子的系数,运用Logistic回归分析方法,采用SPSS统计软件,为批发零售型上市企业进行模型的搭建,从而实现对西安明珠家具有限公司进行财务危机预警,计算分析得出2015年该公司存在财务风险。最后，提出财务危机的建议以便西安明珠家居有限公司借鉴，，该公司应当建立健全危机管理组织部门和财务危机预警系统,并且还要提高管理和财务人员的管理水平来防范财务危机发生的可能。
[Abstract]:The early warning of financial crisis is an important task to study all kinds of financial information data and enterprise operation from the point of view of enterprise finance, to find out all kinds of crisis problems, to put forward early warning and to correct and solve it. Financial crisis early-warning research has been a very important topic at home and abroad. Relevant research not only has academic significance, but also can produce great social value. In the economic environment of our country, the development of enterprises is related to the interests of investors and creditors, so it is very important to analyze their financial situation. And in recent years, the rise of the Internet has made real sales enterprises suffer a huge impact, online shopping has occupied a part of the market share. Sian Mingzhu Home Co., Ltd. has also been affected, for the company to establish a financial crisis warning model can not wait. This paper first introduces the research background and significance of the paper, financial crisis warning related theoretical knowledge, through practical research and interviews to Xi'an Mingzhu Home Co., Ltd. This paper introduces the current situation of financial crisis management of the company and analyzes the existing problems. Secondly, from four aspects of macro environmental factors, industry environmental factors, management factors and financial factors, this paper analyzes the factors influencing the formation of financial crisis in Xi'an Mingzhu Home Co., Ltd. By using the expert scoring method, the seven main influencing factors of the financial crisis of Xi'an Mingzhu Home Co., Ltd., and the early warning index system of the financial crisis are determined. The system includes solvency, operating capacity and profitability. Growth ability and ability to obtain cash flow five warning indicators and two non-financial indicators. Thirdly, this paper makes use of the audited financial data of 22 listed wholesale and retail companies as the basic information, and uses the mathematical statistical method to select the index variables scientifically. The factor analysis method is used to determine the main factor, and the factor score is set up as the coefficient of the main factor. The logistic regression analysis method and SPSS software are used to build the model for the wholesale and retail listed enterprises. In order to realize the early warning of financial crisis of Xi'an Mingzhu Furniture Co., Ltd. Finally, the proposal of financial crisis is put forward for the reference of Xi'an Mingzhu Home Co., Ltd., which should establish and improve the crisis management organization and financial crisis early warning system. And also to improve the management of management and financial staff to prevent the possibility of financial crisis.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F715.5;F721

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