我国建筑施工企业财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-07-21 16:48

【摘要】：建筑业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,而作为建筑业细分行业中产值规模占比最大的建筑施工企业,随着建筑业的不断发展以及国际化进程的加快,其面临的竞争与面对的各种风险也随之增加,尤其是财务风险对企业的威胁最大。如何在风险发生前科学的预测风险,并因此做好风险防范工作对企业的发展至关重要。财务风险预警作为预测财务风险的一种重要方法,能有效帮助企业及时地进行财务风险的预测,是企业防范财务风险的基础,对企业的发展起着保驾护航的作用。财务风险预警作为企业经济运行的观测指南,不仅具有较高的理论研究意义,而且具有较强的实际应用价值。目前在传统的企业财务风险预警研究中,大多选取的指标是建立在权责发生制基础上的传统指标体系,该种指标体系最大的缺陷就是存在被经营者人为操纵的可能。因此,也有一些研究全部选取了现金流量指标进行财务风险预警,但是已有研究也表明,有些传统指标是不能被现金流量指标完全取代的,比如:杠杆率指标。正是基于以上原因,论文尝试将传统财务指标和现金流量指标混合使用建立财务风险预警指标体系,并加大了现金流量指标的选取比重,以求能更好的达到预警效果。本文之所以加大现金流量指标的比重,一方面是基于建筑施工企业生产周期长、资金耗用量大的特点,其财务风险的产生往往与现金流出现的严重问题密不可分;另一方面是因为使用现金流指标能够为财务风险预警提供更直观、更有价值的信息。因此,本文基于选取传统财务指标和现金流量指标双视角构建适用于建筑施工企业的财务风险预警。在对建筑施工企业面临的财务风险及风险影响因素分析的基础上,结合其特点分别从盈利、营运、偿债、成长和资产管理五个维度选取传统财务指标和现金流量指标,运用功效系数法构建建筑施工企业的财务风险预警,并进行结果检验和结果分析,最后提出建筑施工企业在实施财务风险预警时的相关对策建议。目的在于通过合理运用财务风险预警,帮助建筑施工企业更好的进行财务风险的预测,在预测的基础上科学防范财务风险,以促进建筑施工企业健康、持续的发展。
[Abstract]:The construction industry is the pillar industry of the national economy of our country, and as the construction enterprise with the largest output value in the construction industry subdivision industry, with the continuous development of the construction industry and the acceleration of the internationalization process, The competition and all kinds of risks are also increasing, especially the financial risk is the biggest threat to the enterprise. How to predict risk scientifically before the occurrence of risk, and therefore do a good job of risk prevention is very important for the development of enterprises. As an important method to predict financial risk, financial risk early warning can effectively help enterprises to forecast financial risk in time, is the basis of preventing financial risk, and plays an important role in protecting the development of enterprises. As an observation guide for enterprises' economic operation, financial risk early warning not only has a high theoretical significance, but also has a strong practical application value. At present, in the traditional enterprise financial risk early warning research, most of the selected indicators are based on the accrual basis of the traditional index system, the biggest defect of this index system is the possibility of being manipulated by the operator. Therefore, some studies have all selected cash flow indicators for financial risk early warning, but it has also been shown that some traditional indicators can not be completely replaced by cash flow indicators, such as: leverage index. Based on the above reasons, this paper tries to establish the financial risk early warning index system by using the traditional financial index and cash flow index, and increase the proportion of the cash flow index, in order to achieve better early warning effect. The reason why this paper increases the proportion of cash flow index, on the one hand, is based on the characteristics of long production cycle and large capital consumption of construction enterprises, and its financial risks are often closely related to the serious problems of cash flow. On the other hand, the use of cash flow indicators can provide more intuitive and valuable information for financial risk warning. Therefore, based on the traditional financial indicators and cash flow indicators, this paper constructs the financial risk early warning which is suitable for construction enterprises. Based on the analysis of the financial risks and risk factors faced by construction enterprises, the traditional financial indicators and cash flow indicators are selected from the five dimensions of profitability, operation, debt service, growth and asset management. This paper applies the efficiency coefficient method to construct the financial risk early warning of construction enterprises, and carries on the result inspection and the result analysis, finally puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions when the construction enterprises carry out the financial risk early warning. The purpose of this paper is to help the construction enterprises to forecast the financial risks by using the financial risk early warning reasonably, and to prevent the financial risks scientifically on the basis of the forecast, so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the construction enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.92

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