基于神经网络模型的电力上市公司价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-08-04 08:59

【摘要】：近年来,国际社会对于企业价值评估问题进行了大量研究,积极推进了资产评估的发展。而我国电力行业既具有国有企业的特性,为社会提供准公共产品;又具有行业特殊技术经济特征。随着社会经济的深入改革,电力企业要实现长期发展就必须转变管理观念和发展方式。那么为应对电力体制改革及经济下行的新形势所带来的挑战和机遇,就需要电力企业探索企业价值驱动因素,提升价值创造能力,从而获取更多的剩余价值。因此探索一条既适合企业操作又能客观准确评估企业价值的方法,具有重要的理论和实践意义。通过文献查阅和资料收集,为了解电力行业以及企业价值评估模型的研究现状提供了理论支撑。文章分为五大部分,第一部分是选题背景及研究意义,以及国内外对于企业价值评估和神经网络模型应用的研究现状。在此基础之上,第二部分介绍企业价值及价值评估的理论。价值评估首要的工作即界定企业价值的类型,通过对每一种价值的表现形式进行简述,得出本文所研究的企业价值表现。其次介绍企业价值评估的方法及理论模型,并在此基础上探索本文采用的企业价值评估模型。第三部分是基于SWOT的电力企业价值驱动因素分析并构建指标体系。利用SWOT对电力企业价值驱动因素进行分析,并以此建立适合电力企业的价值评估指标体系。第四部分是电力企业价值评估模型的构建及实证分析,对基于神经网络模型的构建方法进行了详细说明评估出企业价值并进行实证分析。第五部分是研究成果和结论,以及本研究存在的不足之处,望以后有待改进。本文主要从两个方面进行创新研究。第一,文章采用SWOT分析法对企业价值的驱动因素进行分析,并且构建电力企业价值评估的指标体系,考虑现金流量、资本成本等因素;第二,创新地将神经网络和EVA相结合,构建企业价值评估模型,为企业价值评估模型中预测方法提供了新思路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the international community has carried out a lot of research on enterprise value evaluation, and actively promoted the development of asset evaluation. The electric power industry of our country has not only the characteristics of state-owned enterprises, but also the special technical and economic characteristics of the industry. With the deepening reform of social economy, electric power enterprises must change their management concept and development mode if they want to achieve long-term development. In order to meet the challenges and opportunities brought by the reform of electric power system and the downward economic situation, it is necessary for electric power enterprises to explore the driving factors of enterprise value, enhance the ability of value creation, and obtain more surplus value. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore a method which is suitable for enterprise operation and can evaluate the value of enterprise objectively and accurately. Through literature review and data collection, this paper provides theoretical support for understanding the current research situation of power industry and enterprise value assessment model. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the background and significance of the research, as well as the domestic and foreign research on the evaluation of enterprise value and the application of neural network model. On this basis, the second part introduces the theory of enterprise value and valuation. The first task of value evaluation is to define the types of enterprise value, and through the brief description of each form of value, we can get the enterprise value performance studied in this paper. Secondly, it introduces the methods and theoretical models of enterprise value evaluation, and then explores the enterprise value evaluation model adopted in this paper. The third part is the analysis of the driving factors of power enterprise value based on SWOT and the construction of index system. The value driving factors of electric power enterprises are analyzed by SWOT, and the value evaluation index system suitable for electric power enterprises is established. The fourth part is the power enterprise value evaluation model construction and empirical analysis, the neural network model based on the construction of a detailed description of the evaluation of enterprise value and empirical analysis. The fifth part is the research results and conclusions, as well as the shortcomings of this study, hope to be improved in the future. This article mainly carries on the innovation research from two aspects. First, the paper uses SWOT analysis method to analyze the driving factors of enterprise value, and constructs the index system of power enterprise value evaluation, considering the factors such as cash flow, capital cost, etc. Secondly, the paper innovatively combines neural network and EVA. The establishment of enterprise value evaluation model provides a new idea for forecasting method in enterprise value evaluation model.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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