我国批发零售业上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 09:29

【摘要】：近几年来,国际批发零售业巨头的在中国不断扩张和吞并,加之互联网经济的迅猛发展,我国批发零售业遭受着前所未有的巨大冲击。批发零售业上市公司作为国内批发零售业的领军者,如何面对迅速变化的市场环境带来的冲击,维持持续的健康运作,是企业经营者需要重点关注的问题。由于财务危机具有先兆性,如果能够提前对公司可能出现的财务危机进行分析和预警,为管理层的决策提供合理的建议,将会及时遏制财务危机的出现,因此建立准确有效的财务危机预警模型具有重要意义。本文针对批发零售业上市公司的特点,选取了 23个财务指标和5个非财务指标,确定了 30个2000年至2016年批发零售业上市公司财务数据为样本,基于Logistic回归分析法构建了对批发零售业上市公司的财务危机预警模型。整体结构如下:第一章,介绍了本研究的研究背景及意义。第二章,介绍了常见的财务危机预警模型。第三章,归纳总结了财务危机预警的相关理论。第四章,介绍了本文中模型样本的来源以及选取方法、指标筛选的基本思路,指出模型应引入的指标应具有多元化、综合性的特点。第五章,通过显著性分析及因子分析对财务指标进行了筛选和处理,建立了相应的回归模型,随后通过样本检验来判断模型的精确度。第六章,对本文内容进行总结和展望。本文的主要结论如下:第一,通过对财务数据的开展建模分析,可以预先获知企业所面临的财务危机信息,包括危机爆发时间、发展程度等。第二,加入非财务指标后,财务危机预警研究预测的正确率与纯财务指标相比有了明显的提高。第三,财务指标的显著性明显要高于非财务指标。第四,本文建立的Logistic回归模型可以真正地运用到公司的管理体系中,以有效降低公司的财务风险,更好地起到警示风险的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the international wholesale and retail giants in China continue to expand and annexation, coupled with the rapid development of the Internet economy, China's wholesale and retail industry has suffered an unprecedented impact. As the leader of the domestic wholesale and retail trade, how to face the impact of the rapidly changing market environment and maintain a healthy and sustainable operation is a problem that business operators should pay attention to. As the financial crisis is a precursor, if we can analyze and warn the possible financial crisis in advance and provide reasonable advice for the decision of the management, it will contain the emergence of the financial crisis in time. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish an accurate and effective early warning model of financial crisis. According to the characteristics of wholesale and retail listed companies, this paper selects 23 financial indicators and 5 non-financial indicators, and determines the financial data of 30 wholesale and retail listed companies from 2000 to 2016 as a sample. Based on Logistic regression analysis, the financial crisis warning model of wholesale and retail listed companies is constructed. The whole structure is as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of this study. The second chapter, introduced the common financial crisis warning model. The third chapter summarizes the theory of financial crisis warning. In the fourth chapter, the author introduces the source of the model sample, the selection method and the basic idea of index selection, and points out that the index should be introduced by the model with the characteristics of diversity and comprehensiveness. In the fifth chapter, the financial indexes are screened and processed by significance analysis and factor analysis, and the corresponding regression model is established, and then the accuracy of the model is judged by sample test. Chapter six summarizes and prospects the content of this paper. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, by modeling and analyzing the financial data, we can know the information of financial crisis in advance, including the time of crisis, the degree of development and so on. Second, after adding non-financial indicators, the correct rate of financial crisis early warning research and prediction is obviously improved compared with pure financial indicators. Third, the significance of financial indicators is significantly higher than that of non-financial indicators. Fourthly, the Logistic regression model established in this paper can be applied to the management system of the company, so as to effectively reduce the financial risk of the company and play a better role as a warning risk.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F715.5;F721

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