新能源结构下发电企业价值评价的研究

发布时间：2018-09-04 06:30

【摘要】：电力行业是支撑我国经济和社会发展的基础行业和公用事业,与国民经济的发展周期基本保持一致。随着继续深入的电力改革,电力资本市场不断发展,垄断逐渐被打破,投资主体呈现出多元化,电力公司为了谋求更大的发展,收购兼并、资产重组、上市融资等活动轰轰烈烈地发展起来,并日益引起人们的重视,确定电力上市公司价值,为电力上市公司的交易提供依据,成为资本市场的热点和难点。面对煤炭、石油等常规能源存在的污染问题,合理开发与利用新能源十分重要。我国大力支持新能源的发展,国内发电企业积极响应国家政策,改变能源结构,从火电逐渐向新能源转变,即使火电还在很长一段时间内占主导地位,但是新能源的比例逐步提升。在新能源结构下,企业价值也将受到影响。在此背景下本文研究能源结构的变动对发电企业价值评估的影响情况。本文通过对国内外相关文献的回顾,从整体上阐述了企业价值评估的理论方法,确定了企业价值在评估中的含义。针对我国新能源的发展现状,具体研究了五家上市发电企业能源结构,发现新能源比例逐渐提升,同时对比股票价格与能源结构的关系,认为市场对于新能源发展有积极预期,通过分析新能源和火电的净资产收益率以及总资产报酬率,得出新能源发展对企业价值存在一定的影响的结论。通过各类资产金额的比例确定企业资产结构,并通过相关性分析确定能源结构的变动与企业现金利润之间的关系,同时采用因素分析法确定资产结构、企业总资产以及火电的现金利润率与新能源资产现金利润率分别对于企业绩效的影响,本文认为资产结构目前对于企业绩效有一定的抑制作用,但是抑制作用逐渐降低,因此未来发展前景乐观。最后,本文采用收益法分别预测新能源结构下企业现金流量,折现后得出企业价值,根据企业价值的评估结果,确定新能源发展对企业价值的影响并同样采用因素分析法确定每年资产结构对于企业现金流量的影响,通过折现确定资产结构对企业价值的影响,得出结论资产结构对企业价值存在一定的影响,目前资产结构对于企业价值存在抑制作用,但是随着新能源的不断发展,资产结构对企业价值抑制作用减轻,因此发展新能源对企业价值存在积极的作用。本文认为目前新能源的发展对于提升企业价值作用不够明显,但是从长远角度看,市场对于新能源的发展持有积极态度,同时新能源发展可以提升企业内在价值,对于企业具有重要意义。本文旨在通过分析能源结构对企业价值的影响,了解发展新能源意义,并为我国新能源的发展提出建议。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the basic industry and public utility which supports the economic and social development of our country, and basically keeps in line with the development cycle of the national economy. With the further electric power reform, the power capital market continues to develop, the monopoly is gradually broken down, and the investors are diversified. In order to seek greater development, the electric power companies acquire and annex, reorganize their assets. The activities such as listing and financing have developed rapidly and have attracted more and more attention. It has become a hot and difficult point in the capital market to determine the value of the listed power companies and to provide the basis for the trading of the listed companies. It is very important to develop and utilize new energy reasonably in the face of pollution problems of conventional energy such as coal and petroleum. Our country vigorously supports the development of new energy, domestic power generation enterprises actively respond to national policies, change the energy structure, and gradually change from thermal power to new energy, even though thermal power still dominates for a long time. But the proportion of new energy is rising. Under the new energy structure, the enterprise value will also be affected. In this context, this paper studies the impact of energy structure changes on the value assessment of power generation enterprises. Based on the review of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper expounds the theory and method of enterprise value evaluation, and determines the meaning of enterprise value in evaluation. In view of the current situation of new energy development in China, the energy structure of five listed power generation enterprises is studied in detail, and it is found that the proportion of new energy is gradually increasing. At the same time, comparing the relationship between stock price and energy structure, it is considered that the market has positive expectations for the development of new energy. By analyzing the rate of return on net assets and the return on total assets of new energy and thermal power, it is concluded that the development of new energy has a certain influence on the enterprise value. The enterprise asset structure is determined by the proportion of all kinds of assets, the relationship between the change of energy structure and the cash profit of the enterprise is determined by correlation analysis, and the asset structure is determined by factor analysis. The total assets, the cash profit margin of thermal power plant and the cash profit rate of new energy assets affect the enterprise performance respectively. This paper holds that the asset structure has a certain inhibitory effect on the enterprise performance, but the inhibition effect is gradually reduced. Therefore, the future development prospects are optimistic. Finally, the paper uses the income method to predict the cash flow of the enterprise under the new energy structure, and obtains the enterprise value after discounted, according to the evaluation result of the enterprise value. To determine the influence of new energy development on enterprise value and the influence of annual asset structure on enterprise cash flow, and to determine the influence of asset structure on enterprise value by discounting. It is concluded that the asset structure has a certain influence on the enterprise value. At present, the asset structure has a restraining effect on the enterprise value, but with the development of new energy, the inhibition effect of the asset structure on the enterprise value is reduced. Therefore, the development of new energy has a positive effect on enterprise value. This paper argues that the development of new energy is not obvious enough to enhance the value of enterprises, but in the long run, the market has a positive attitude towards the development of new energy, and the development of new energy can enhance the intrinsic value of enterprises. It is of great significance to enterprises. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of energy structure on enterprise value, to understand the significance of developing new energy, and to put forward some suggestions for the development of new energy in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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