基于FCFE模型的我国上市商业银行估值研究
发布时间：2018-10-26 16:12
【摘要】：随着近些年市场的不断发展完善,全球化进程的不断加剧,商业银行间的重组、并购、参股等资本运作活动也日益增多,使得商业银行的价值评估越来越重要。囿于商业银行经营特殊性、资产结构的特殊性、风险的特殊性以及监管的特殊性,对其股权价值评估非比对一般企业的价值评估,目前没有哪一种评估方法能够准确的评估出商业银行的股权价值,当下对商业银行股权价值评估比较常用的是股权现金流法。但是对该方法对商业银行评估的适用性,却鲜有人对其格物致知。本文首先从理论分析入手,从商业银行相较于其它企业的特殊性剖析得出商业银行对其股权价值评估时应当选择股权现金流法对其评估。然后从实证分析论证,通过构建股权现金流模型,用该模型对典型案例即华夏银行的股权价值进行评估得出评估价值,同理用该方法对我国16家样本(上市商业银行)的股权价值进行评估并得评估价值,与16家样本的流通价值做配对T检验和相关检验。进而说明股权现金流模型对我国商业银行价值评估的适用性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the market in recent years, the process of globalization continues to intensify, the reorganization of commercial banks, mergers and acquisitions, equity participation and other capital operations are also increasing, making the value evaluation of commercial banks more and more important. Due to the particularity of commercial bank management, the particularity of asset structure, the particularity of risk and the particularity of supervision, the valuation of equity value of commercial bank is not equal to that of ordinary enterprise. At present, there is no evaluation method that can accurately evaluate the equity value of commercial banks. At present, stock cash flow method is commonly used to evaluate the equity value of commercial banks. However, few people know the applicability of this method to commercial bank evaluation. This paper begins with the theoretical analysis and analyzes the particularity of commercial banks compared with other enterprises. It is concluded that commercial banks should choose equity cash flow method to evaluate their equity value. Then from the empirical analysis and demonstration, through the construction of equity cash flow model, using this model to evaluate the typical case, namely, Huaxia Bank equity value to obtain the evaluation value. In the same way, the equity value of 16 samples (listed commercial banks) in China is evaluated by this method, and the matched T test and correlation test are made with the circulation value of 16 samples. The applicability of equity cash flow model to the value evaluation of commercial banks in China is illustrated.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.33;F830.42
，
本文编号：2296283
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the market in recent years, the process of globalization continues to intensify, the reorganization of commercial banks, mergers and acquisitions, equity participation and other capital operations are also increasing, making the value evaluation of commercial banks more and more important. Due to the particularity of commercial bank management, the particularity of asset structure, the particularity of risk and the particularity of supervision, the valuation of equity value of commercial bank is not equal to that of ordinary enterprise. At present, there is no evaluation method that can accurately evaluate the equity value of commercial banks. At present, stock cash flow method is commonly used to evaluate the equity value of commercial banks. However, few people know the applicability of this method to commercial bank evaluation. This paper begins with the theoretical analysis and analyzes the particularity of commercial banks compared with other enterprises. It is concluded that commercial banks should choose equity cash flow method to evaluate their equity value. Then from the empirical analysis and demonstration, through the construction of equity cash flow model, using this model to evaluate the typical case, namely, Huaxia Bank equity value to obtain the evaluation value. In the same way, the equity value of 16 samples (listed commercial banks) in China is evaluated by this method, and the matched T test and correlation test are made with the circulation value of 16 samples. The applicability of equity cash flow model to the value evaluation of commercial banks in China is illustrated.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.33;F830.42
，
本文编号：2296283
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