设备制造业税收收入预测及分析

发布时间：2018-11-06 12:35

【摘要】：国务院于2015年发布的《中国制造2025》拉开了我国制造强国战略十年纲领计划的序幕,在随后的2016年,《装备制造业标准化和质量提升规划》的推广更是为制造业的发展铺好了前进的阶石,制造强国的思路已成为我国当前最重要的指导思想之一。而作为装备制造业领头军的设备制造业,它的发展水平已经成为衡量国家硬实力的重要标准,同时,设备制造业也是我国经济发展的重要支柱产业,更是产业升级的重要保障。设备制造业可分为专用设备制造业和通用设备制造业。专用设备制造业是为我国第一产业、第二产业、第三产业和防务设施以及基础设施供应行业专用固定资产的行业。它的发展受到很多因素的影响,比如国家政策、税收政策、产业转型趋势、投资力度大小、上下游产业发展状态等,总体来说,在现阶段专用设备制造业呈现出快速发展的轨迹。通用设备制造业是为工业提供动力、传动、基础加工、等基础零部件,行业产品应用领域广泛,主要涵盖航空航天、交通运输、石油化工等市场,是设备制造业中的基础性产业。近年来,专用设备制造业和通用设备制造业的税收收入呈不断上升趋势,这不仅与我国经济的快速增长有关,更与设备制造业在我国基础设施中所扮演的角色越来越重要有着密切的关系。税收收入不仅构成了国家财政收入的大部分,更是我国行使各种职能的物质基础,有效进行某一行业的税收收入预测能够帮助税务工作人员预见未来的税收情况,也可以很好的对行业的发展情形作出规划,更可以对税收政策的制定提供参考价值。设备制造业税收收入预测是在是对设备制造业历史税收数据收集、税收影响因素分析等共同作用下进行的,对设备制造业税收管理计划的制定有参考意义。现今虽然有很多税收收入预测模型,但大部分是针对其他行业、同一税种或全国税收收入来进行预测的,对设备制造业税收收入来说难以做到预测的精和准。本文在绪论章节后首先对专用设备制造业和通用设备制造业的内涵、发展现状及行业发展特点进行梳理;其次从宏观和微观两个角度对专用设备制造业和通用设备制造业的税收收入进行模型的构建、预测及分析,其中宏观角度涉及到时间序列法、回归分析法和趋势外推法,微观分析则利用经济意义和逐步回归两种办法对数据进行分析;最后,通过相对误差的对比及预测结果的分析将模型进行优劣评价,对于分析设备制造业税收收入情况、促进专用设备制造业和通用设备制造业税收征收管理具有重要作用?
[Abstract]:The "made in China 2025", released by the State Council in 2015, kicked off the 10-year strategic program of China's manufacturing power, followed by 2016. The promotion of "Standardization and quality improvement Program for equipment Manufacturing Industry" has laid a good stone for the development of manufacturing industry, and the thinking of manufacturing power has become one of the most important guiding ideology at present in our country. As the leader of equipment manufacturing industry, the development level of equipment manufacturing industry has become an important standard to measure national hard strength. At the same time, equipment manufacturing industry is also an important pillar industry of our country's economic development and an important guarantee of industrial upgrading. Equipment manufacturing industry can be divided into specialized equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry. The special equipment manufacturing industry is a special fixed assets industry for China's primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, defense facilities and infrastructure supply industry. Its development is affected by many factors, such as national policies, tax policies, industrial transformation trends, investment dynamics, upstream and downstream industrial development status, etc. Generally speaking, At the present stage, the special equipment manufacturing industry presents a rapid development track. The general equipment manufacturing industry provides power, transmission, basic processing, and other basic components for industry. The products in the industry are widely used in a wide range of fields, mainly covering markets such as aerospace, transportation, petrochemical, etc. Is the basic industry in the equipment manufacturing industry. In recent years, the tax revenue of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry has been on the rise, which is not only related to the rapid economic growth of our country. More and more, the equipment manufacturing industry plays an increasingly important role in China's infrastructure. Tax revenue not only constitutes the majority of the national financial revenue, but also the material basis for our country to exercise all kinds of functions. Effective tax revenue forecasting in a certain industry can help tax officials to foresee the future tax situation. It can also make a good plan for the development of the industry and provide reference value for the tax policy formulation. The tax revenue forecast of the equipment manufacturing industry is carried out under the joint action of collecting the historical tax data of the equipment manufacturing industry and analyzing the influencing factors of the tax revenue. It has reference significance for the establishment of the tax management plan of the equipment manufacturing industry. Although there are many tax revenue forecasting models nowadays, most of them are for other industries, the same tax category or national tax revenue to forecast, and it is difficult to predict the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry. After the introduction, this paper firstly combs the connotation, current situation and characteristics of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry. Secondly, the tax revenue model of special equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry is constructed, predicted and analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives, including time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method, in which the macroscopic angle is related to time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Microanalysis uses economic meaning and stepwise regression to analyze the data. Finally, through the comparison of relative errors and the analysis of forecast results, the model is evaluated, which plays an important role in analyzing the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry and promoting the tax collection and management of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F406.7

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