物流成本对产出和价格水平的影响——基于FAVAR模型
发布时间：2018-11-12 12:13
【摘要】：我国物流成本较发达国家一直偏高,2010年以来油价高企推动物流成本上升,物流成本对价格水平的影响受到广泛关注,但鲜有关于物流成本对价格水平的定量研究.本文通过构建因子增广向量自回归(FAVAR)模型深入研究了我国物流成本对工业产品产量和价格水平的影响与传导机制,结果表明:1)物流成本对主要工业产品产量和社会物流总额存在长期负向影响.2)物流成本对价格水平存在正向影响,并且CPI对物流成本冲击的反应比PPI更加灵敏,反应幅度也更大.3)物流成本对CPI和PPI的冲击主要通过食品价格传导.总之,物流成本是通货膨胀的重要"推动力"之一,降低物流成本对于扩大产出和稳定物价水平具有重要意义.
[Abstract]:The logistics cost of our country is higher than that of the developed countries all the time. Since 2010, the high oil price has promoted the logistics cost to rise, and the influence of the logistics cost on the price level has received extensive attention, but there is little quantitative research on the logistics cost to the price level. In this paper, the influence and conduction mechanism of logistics cost on the output and price level of industrial products in China are studied by constructing factor augmentation vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. The results show that: 1) Logistics cost has a long-term negative effect on the output of major industrial products and the total amount of social logistics, 2) logistics cost has a positive effect on the price level, and CPI is more sensitive to the impact of logistics cost than PPI. The impact of logistics costs on CPI and PPI is mainly transmitted through food prices. In a word, logistics cost is one of the important driving forces of inflation, and it is of great significance to reduce logistics cost for expanding output and stabilizing price level.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71001096,70933003,71071170) 中国科学院重大支撑项目(KACX1-YW-0906)
【分类号】：F224;F259.2;F253.7
[Abstract]:The logistics cost of our country is higher than that of the developed countries all the time. Since 2010, the high oil price has promoted the logistics cost to rise, and the influence of the logistics cost on the price level has received extensive attention, but there is little quantitative research on the logistics cost to the price level. In this paper, the influence and conduction mechanism of logistics cost on the output and price level of industrial products in China are studied by constructing factor augmentation vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. The results show that: 1) Logistics cost has a long-term negative effect on the output of major industrial products and the total amount of social logistics, 2) logistics cost has a positive effect on the price level, and CPI is more sensitive to the impact of logistics cost than PPI. The impact of logistics costs on CPI and PPI is mainly transmitted through food prices. In a word, logistics cost is one of the important driving forces of inflation, and it is of great significance to reduce logistics cost for expanding output and stabilizing price level.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71001096,70933003,71071170) 中国科学院重大支撑项目(KACX1-YW-0906)
【分类号】：F224;F259.2;F253.7
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前8条
1 沈悦;周奎省;李善q，
本文编号：2327078
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