明斯基融资类型、金融不稳定和经济增长——基于中国省际数据的实证分析
发布时间：2018-12-27 07:36
【摘要】：本文以明斯基的内生金融不稳定假说作为理论内核,将工业企业资产负债率作为企业融资类型指标,并利用我国31个省份2006年1月至2014年12月的月度数据,用指标构建法得到了我国的金融稳定状况指数,进而将其与企业融资类型、各省生产总值建立面板向量自回归模型进行分析。实证结果表明,金融不稳定的加剧对各省生产总值长期存在负向影响;各省生产总值的发展对金融不稳定有减轻作用;资产负债率的增加即企业投机融资和庞氏融资的增加会加剧金融不稳定;同时资产负债率的增加对各省生产总值影响为负。因此,中国省份面板数据实证分析证明了明斯基金融不稳定假说的正确性。为保持我国金融稳定性和经济可持续增长,应适当出台政策抑制企业融资向庞氏融资的转变。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Minsky's endogenous financial instability hypothesis as the theoretical core, takes the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises as the index of enterprise financing type, and makes use of the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2014 in 31 provinces of China. The index of China's financial stability is obtained by using the index construction method, and then it is analyzed with the financing type of enterprises and the panel vector autoregressive model of the GDP of each province. The empirical results show that the exacerbation of financial instability has a negative impact on the GDP of each province for a long time, and the development of the GDP of each province can alleviate the financial instability. The increase of asset-liability ratio, that is, the increase of enterprise speculative financing and Ponzi financing, will aggravate financial instability, and the increase of asset-liability ratio will have a negative impact on the GDP of each province. Therefore, the empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data proves the validity of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis. In order to maintain the financial stability and sustainable economic growth of our country, we should introduce appropriate policies to restrain the transformation of enterprise financing to Ponzi financing.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院经济系;南开大学中国特色社会主义建设协同创新中心;
【基金】：中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心一般项目“产业结构升级、经济波动平稳化和经济风险问题研究”和“流动性问题研究——基于马克思货币、信用与虚拟资本理论”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F406.7;F424
本文编号：2392720
[Abstract]:This paper takes Minsky's endogenous financial instability hypothesis as the theoretical core, takes the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises as the index of enterprise financing type, and makes use of the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2014 in 31 provinces of China. The index of China's financial stability is obtained by using the index construction method, and then it is analyzed with the financing type of enterprises and the panel vector autoregressive model of the GDP of each province. The empirical results show that the exacerbation of financial instability has a negative impact on the GDP of each province for a long time, and the development of the GDP of each province can alleviate the financial instability. The increase of asset-liability ratio, that is, the increase of enterprise speculative financing and Ponzi financing, will aggravate financial instability, and the increase of asset-liability ratio will have a negative impact on the GDP of each province. Therefore, the empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data proves the validity of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis. In order to maintain the financial stability and sustainable economic growth of our country, we should introduce appropriate policies to restrain the transformation of enterprise financing to Ponzi financing.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院经济系;南开大学中国特色社会主义建设协同创新中心;
【基金】：中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心一般项目“产业结构升级、经济波动平稳化和经济风险问题研究”和“流动性问题研究——基于马克思货币、信用与虚拟资本理论”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F406.7;F424
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