受灾后关键道路中断影响的工程项目优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 01:25

本文选题：灾后关键道路中断　切入点：通车时间预测模型　出处：《天津大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国是自然灾害多发国，每年均发生大量自然灾害。根据《中国统计年鉴》,仅仅2006年就发生了10万起地质灾害（指泥石流、山体滑坡等灾害）。无论是非特大型自然灾害，还是特大型的自然灾害均会引起受灾地区关键道路中断的现象。特大型自然灾害会引起该地区全部道路中断，在第一时间抢修了一些道路后，该地区进入恢复重建，其所修建的道路往往也是关键道路。关键道路中断对于受灾地区在建工程项目影响巨大，故合理地研究在建工程项目的优化，使其影响降至最低极为重要。对大量文献阅读的基础上，结合2008年汶川地震和每年均遭受台风地区灾后在建工程项目，根据其受道路中断影响的实际情况进行了以下的3项系统研究。 1.针对灾后道路的通车时间难以预测的情况，建立了基于GM(1,1)的灾后道路通车时间预测模型，并对所建立的模型编写matlab算法语言程序使其计算智能化，摆脱了人工计算繁琐甚至难以计算的缺点。同时利用SVM方法对通车时间预测模型的结果进行了比较分析。 2.针对灾后关键道路中断期工程设备运输受阻的情况，建立分项工程损益效用的方案选优模型。与传统的期望效用理论选优模型不同，该模型更加客观地体现需要使用工程设备的分项工程影响，站在分项工程对整体工程项目影响角度建立方案选优模型。同时对解决期望效用理论不足的主流方法“前景理论”做了不适应分析，并提出了方案进一步选优需注意的事项。 3.针对道路中断期间原材料价格出现波动的实际状况，对工程项目相应受影响工序建立库存采购和施工组织设计优化模型。库存采购的优化模型是基于EOQ模型的调整；施工组织设计优化模型利用了动态规划模型的求解结果，，基于求解结果的分析建立了简化的优化模型。简化后的优化模型不仅克服了动态规划的“维灾”现象，而且能更加贴近实际的应用。
[Abstract]:China is a country prone to natural disasters, and a large number of natural disasters occur every year. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, in 2006 alone, 100,000 geological disasters (such as debris flows, landslides, etc.) occurred. It is also true that major natural disasters will cause the disruption of critical roads in the affected areas. Major natural disasters will cause all roads in the region to be disrupted, and after some roads have been urgently repaired, the area will enter the process of rehabilitation and reconstruction. The road it built is often also a key road. The interruption of the critical road has a great impact on the projects under construction in the affected areas, so it is reasonable to study the optimization of the projects under construction. It is extremely important to minimize its impact. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature, combined with the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 and the ongoing construction projects in the typhoon area after the 2008 earthquake, According to the actual situation affected by road interruption, the following three systematic studies are carried out. 1. In view of the difficult to predict the opening time of the post-disaster road, a prediction model of the opening time of the post-disaster road is established based on GM-1), and the matlab algorithm language program is written to make the calculation intelligent. The method of SVM is used to compare and analyze the results of the traffic time prediction model. 2. In view of the obstructed transportation of engineering equipment during the critical road interruption period after the disaster, a scheme optimization model of the profit and loss utility of the sub-project is established. The model is different from the traditional optimal model of expected utility theory. The model more objectively reflects the impact of sub-projects requiring the use of engineering equipment. At the same time, the paper makes an unsuitable analysis on the mainstream method "foreground theory", which solves the shortage of expected utility theory, and puts forward the matters needing attention in the further scheme selection. 3. Aiming at the fluctuation of raw material price during road interruption, the optimization model of inventory purchase and construction organization design is established for the affected working procedure of engineering project. The optimization model of inventory purchase is based on the adjustment of EOQ model. The optimization model of construction organization design utilizes the solution result of dynamic programming model, and establishes a simplified optimization model based on the analysis of solution result. The simplified optimization model not only overcomes the phenomenon of "dimension disaster" in dynamic programming. And can be more close to the actual application.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71

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