上海市老龄化高峰期机构养老设施需求预测与分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 06:05

本文选题：老年人口 + 养老机构　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着老龄化进程的加深和家庭养老能力的逐渐弱化,未来城市对机构养老设施的需求将日益增加,面对当前上海市机构养老设施呈现出的总量不足和配置不合理等现象,本文在借鉴国内外相关理论与实践案例研究的基础上,结合实地调研、Leslie矩阵模型等,预测了上海市老龄化高峰期对于养老机构设施的各项需求。主要做了以下几方面工作：首先,对国内外关于老年人群体和养老设施的相关理论,进行了系统归纳和总结,为后文的实证研究提供理论基础。其次,根据上海市的老龄化特征和经济发展水平选用日本和香港的养老机构发展实践进行深入研究,总结其发展经验,为未来上海市养老机构的进一步发展提供参考。第三,通过对上海市老龄化现状特征、家庭养老面临的挑战和养老设施配置、服务对象和从业人员情况的综合分析,深入挖掘目前上海市养老机构存在的问题,以便更有针对性地进行预测分析和提出解决对策。第四,基于Leslie矩阵模型,以“六普”数据中的上海市常住人口为基础数据,综合考虑生育率和死亡率等因素,预测上海市各区县未来各年龄段男性人口和女性人口的发展趋势,从而得出预测期内各区县各年份的老年人口数,为下一步预测养老设施需求打下基础。第五,预测上海市老龄化高峰期的养老设施需求。根据老年人口数量和上海市各区县经济发展水平,结合实地调研,分别从养老床位需求、各级养老机构建筑面积需求和养老服务人员需求三个维度进行预测,得到上海市各区县老龄化高峰期对上述三项养老设施的需求值,以期为未来各区县解决养老难题提供科学参考。最后针对研究过程中发现的问题,对未来上海市机构养老设施的发展提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the aging process and the gradual weakening of the ability of the family to provide for the aged, the demand for institutional pension facilities in the future will increase day by day. In the face of the shortage of the total amount of institutional pension facilities and the unreasonable allocation of the facilities in Shanghai at present,On the basis of reference of relevant theories and practical case studies at home and abroad, this paper forecasts the demand for pension facilities in the peak period of aging in Shanghai based on the Leslie matrix model.The main work is as follows: first of all, the related theories about the elderly group and old-age facilities at home and abroad are systematically summarized and summarized, which provides the theoretical basis for the empirical research later.Secondly, according to the characteristics of aging and the level of economic development in Shanghai, Japan and Hong Kong are selected to carry out in-depth research on the development of pension institutions, summing up their development experience, to provide a reference for the further development of pension institutions in Shanghai in the future.Third, through the comprehensive analysis of the current situation of aging in Shanghai, the challenges faced by families and the allocation of pension facilities, service objects and employees, the problems existing in the current pension institutions in Shanghai are deeply explored.In order to forecast and analyze more pertinently and put forward the solution countermeasure.Fourthly, based on the Leslie matrix model, based on the data of resident population of Shanghai, and taking into account the factors such as fertility rate and mortality rate, this paper predicts the development trend of male and female population of different age groups in all districts and counties of Shanghai.Thus, the number of elderly population in different districts and counties during the forecast period is obtained, which lays the foundation for predicting the demand for old-age facilities in the next step.Fifth, forecast Shanghai aging peak pension facilities demand.According to the number of the elderly population and the level of economic development in the districts and counties of Shanghai, combined with the field investigation, this paper forecasts the demand for the bedspace for the aged, the building area demand of the pension institutions at all levels and the demand for the aged service personnel, respectively.In order to provide a scientific reference for solving the pension problem in the future, the demand for the above three pension facilities in the aging peak period of Shanghai districts and counties is obtained.Finally, in view of the problems found in the course of the research, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of institutional pension facilities in Shanghai.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D669.6;TU984.14

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