管道湿陷性黄土灾害风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 00:09

本文选题：管道灾害风险 + 湿陷性黄土　；参考：《西南石油大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全国主干油气管网的逐步建成,越来越多的长输油气管道多次穿越我国西北大片的黄土塬地区。由于黄土独特的自然特性,由黄土地质灾害引发的管道安全事故也呈逐年增多的趋势。为了保护位于黄土地区油气管道的安全运行,通过研究黄土自然灾害诱发管道事故的作用机理,建立一套科学的风险评价方法,为该地区油气管道的完整性管理提供决策依据,具有重要的现实意义和工程实用价值。本文在调研管道湿陷性黄土灾害机理分析和管道风险评价技术研究成果的基础上,结合长输管道在黄土灾害作用下的失效模式,构建起管道湿陷性黄土灾害失效故障树,通过对所建故障树的定性分析和对底事件结构重要度的计算,辨识了影响穿越黄土塬地区长输管道安全的主要风险因素,据此建立了湿陷性黄土诱发管道失效可能性的多层次风险因素指标体系,按照管道风险评价的基本原理,并结合API581所建立的风险矩阵,建立起了评价管道湿陷性黄土灾害风险的半定量模型和管道灾害风险等级的划分标准。在管道失效可能性评估中引用改进层次分析法和模糊综合评价技术,较好地解决了评价指标体系权重分配受主观影响大的实际问题；在失效后果评价中参照API581推荐的有关人员伤亡、直接经济损失和无形损失的评价方法,并结合我国相关技术标准的有关规定建立的管道失效后果评价摸型,既遵守了国际惯例,又符合本国国情。最后,依据本研究建立的管道湿陷性黄土灾害风险评价方法,对西气东输管道上的几处典型湿陷性黄土灾害点进行了风险评价应用验证,评价结果符合工程实际。本文针对管道湿陷性黄土灾害建立的风险评价方法,从技术原理上严格遵守了管道风险评价的基本原理,在评价指标体系的评分权重分配上提出了新的处理方法,相对传统的管道风险半定量评价方法降低了主观性影响,所以采用这种风险评价方法得到的评价结果更加符合工程实际。本项研究成果在其它地质灾害引起的管道风险评价中具有一定的推广应用价值。
[Abstract]:With the gradual completion of the main oil and gas pipeline network in China, more and more long oil and gas pipelines pass through a large area of loess tableland in northwest China.Due to the unique natural characteristics of loess, pipeline safety accidents caused by loess geological disasters are also increasing year by year.In order to protect the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines in loess area, a set of scientific risk assessment method is established by studying the mechanism of pipeline accidents induced by natural disasters of loess, which provides a decision basis for the integrity management of oil and gas pipelines in this area.It has important practical significance and practical value.On the basis of investigating the mechanism of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline and the research results of pipeline risk assessment technology, combined with the failure mode of long-distance pipeline under the action of loess disaster, the failure tree of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline is constructed in this paper.Based on the qualitative analysis of the fault tree and the calculation of the importance of the bottom event structure, the main risk factors affecting the safety of long-distance pipeline crossing the Loess Plateau are identified.According to the principle of pipeline risk assessment and the risk matrix established by API581, a multi-level risk factor index system of collapsible loess induced pipeline failure is established.A semi-quantitative model for evaluating pipeline collapsible loess disaster risk and a standard for classification of pipeline hazard risk are established.In the evaluation of pipeline failure possibility, the improved AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technology are used to solve the practical problem that the weight distribution of the evaluation index system is greatly affected by the subjective influence.In the evaluation of failure consequences, referring to the evaluation methods of personnel casualties, direct economic losses and intangible losses recommended by API581, and combining with the relevant regulations of relevant technical standards of our country, the evaluation model of pipeline failure consequences has been established, which not only complies with international practice,Also in line with the national conditions.Finally, according to the risk assessment method of collapsible loess in pipeline, the risk assessment of several typical collapsible loess disaster points in the pipeline from west to east is verified, and the evaluation results are in line with the engineering practice.Aiming at the risk assessment method of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline, this paper strictly obeys the basic principle of pipeline risk assessment in terms of technical principle, and puts forward a new treatment method on the distribution of scoring weight of evaluation index system.Compared with the traditional semi-quantitative evaluation method of pipeline risk, the subjective impact is reduced, so the evaluation results obtained by this method are more in line with the engineering practice.The results of this study have a certain value of popularization and application in pipeline risk assessment caused by other geological disasters.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU444

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