城市洪水灾害易损性的量化模型及动态演化研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 22:03

本文选题：洪水灾害 + 易损性　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：近年来频繁发生的洪水灾害表明，城市洪水灾害不再仅仅是由洪水事件所引发自然现象的产物，而被看作是洪水事件与城市所具有的易损性之间互动机制所造成的社会现象，即城市中越来越多处于洪水灾害危险区域内的承灾体，而城市洪水灾害易损性对洪水事件的“放大”作用，又加剧了洪水灾害对城市所可能造成的不利影响和损失程度。且日益频发的城市特大洪水灾害，致使“城市洪水灾害风险”，即“潜在城市洪水灾害在给定的时间段和地区内发生的概率”变得愈发随机、波动，而无法预测，而“城市洪水灾害易损性”，即“城市面对洪水灾害所可能造成的损失程度”，作为城市所固有的内部属性，，对其进行研究可用来识别城市中哪些“脆弱区”或“弱势群体”需要提前采取应急救援措施，避免洪水灾害所可能造成的灾难性后果，这将成为未来城市防洪体系建设中的“政治预警系统”的核心。然而，现有的城市洪水灾害易损性研究主要围绕构成城市洪水灾害易损性体系中某一特定因素、某一时刻城市洪水灾害易损性程度进行评估、分析，缺乏对城市洪水灾害易损性相关理论和方法的系统研究，导致大多数研究成果难以应用和推广；而且在研究方法上，描述性和宏观性的研究偏多，定量、可操作性的研究偏少。因此，为提高城市适应和抵御日益增多的洪水灾害的能力，有必要对城市洪水灾害易损性体系进行定量、系统的研究，尤其是分析城市洪水灾害易损性随时间和空间变动时的动态演化过程，包括量化土地利用变化和极端暴雨事件等重要影响因素对城市洪水灾害易损性的影响作用，但目前涉及上述研究内容的相关文献甚少。本文将以城市洪水灾害易损性相关概念模型为基础，采用改进的C-NCSA算法、一系列土地利用变化特征和降雨特征演变分析模型、灰色系统动态模型、广义Pareto模型以及定性与定量相结合等多种研究方法，创新性的提出城市洪水灾害易损性量化模型，并基于城市土地利用变化研究城市洪水灾害易损性动态演化过程，以及极端暴雨事件对城市洪水灾害人的易损性影响分析的影响作用等前沿性课题，并最终绘制完成一系列不同时期、不同洪水淹没深度、不同土地利用情景下的城市洪水灾害易损性分布图。首先，构建城市洪水灾害易损性量化模型。通过科学设定城市洪水灾害易损性系统的构成核心要素，包括城市洪水灾害暴露性和敏感性，探讨这两个核心要素之间的耦合关系和互动机制，构建城市洪水灾害易损性量化模型，定量计算城市洪水灾害危险区域各单位区域的易损性数值；并以改进的C-NCSA算法对所计算的易损性数值进行聚类，通过GIS软件实现聚类后易损性数值的空间展布，绘制不同淹没深度下城市洪水灾害危险区域内的易损性分布图，确定整个城市洪水灾害危险区域的易损性程度以及特定“脆弱性”区域。其次，探讨基于土地利用变化的城市洪水灾害易损性动态演化过程。通过提出土地利用变化与城市洪水灾害易损性的响应机制，明确土地利用变化与城市洪水灾害易损性之间的因果关系；构建一系列土地利用变化特征演变分析模型，监测不同时期城市洪水灾害危险区域内各土地利用类型的均质性、优势度和聚集度演变过程；运用构建的城市洪水灾害易损性量化模型，用以模拟并比较分析不同时期、不同淹没深度、不同土地利用情景下的城市洪水灾害易损性数值，并绘制一系列城市洪水灾害危险区域内易损性分布图，以确定土地利用的时空分布变化对城市洪水灾害易损性的影响作用；并以基于灰色系统动态模型所构建的城市洪水灾害易损性整体演化趋势分析模型，对未来城市洪水灾害危险区域的易损性整体演化趋势进行预测、展望。最后，分析极端暴雨事件对城市洪水灾害人的易损性影响分析影响作用。通过提出一系列降雨特征演变分析模型，包括降雨趋势特征模型、降雨突变特征模型，以分析城市历史年度降雨量整体变化趋势和突变年份等城市降雨特征的演变过程；并基于广义Pareto模型，构建极端暴雨事件发生概率的拟合模型，拟合并预测城市不同历史时期、不同量级的极端暴雨事件发生概率；此外，构建极端暴雨事件对城市洪水灾害人的易损性影响分析影响模型，通过分别提出予以阐述极端暴雨事件的物理特性的降雨特征参数，包括响应时间、降雨量特征和降雨持续时间，以及城市洪水灾害人的易损性特征参数，包括年龄、性别，定量分析极端暴雨事件中不同降雨特征参数对不同群体人的易损性的影响作用，以此确定城市洪水灾害人的易损性的“弱势群体”，以及对不同群体人的易损性具有决定性影响作用的极端暴雨事件降雨特征参数。本文将构建的城市洪水灾害易损性量化模型，予以探讨基于土地利用变化的城市洪水灾害易损性动态演化过程，分析极端暴雨事件对城市洪水灾害人的易损性影响分析的影响作用，旨在弥补目前城市洪水灾害易损性定量分析和动态演化研究中的空白，有望对我国未来进行“有风险的洪水管理”防洪体系建设，政府决策者构建基于洪水风险管理的土地空间规划和经济发展提供科学、有效的技术支撑。
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of flood disasters in recent years shows that urban flood disasters are no longer only the product of natural phenomena caused by flood events, but are regarded as the social phenomena caused by the interaction mechanism between flood events and the vulnerability of cities, that is, more and more cities are in the flood disaster dangerous areas. The "magnification" of flood disaster vulnerability to flood events aggravates the adverse effects and losses that flood disasters may cause to the city. And the increasingly frequent urban flood disasters cause "the risk of urban flood disasters", that is, the probability of "potential urban flood disasters in a given period and area." "It becomes more random, fluctuating and unpredictable, and" the vulnerability of urban flood disaster "," the extent of the possible loss of a city in the face of a flood disaster ". As an inherent internal attribute of a city, the study can be used to identify which" vulnerable areas "or" vulnerable groups "in the city need to take emergency rescue in advance. Measures to avoid catastrophic consequences caused by flood disasters will become the core of the "political early warning system" in the future urban flood control system construction.
However, the existing research on the vulnerability of urban flood disaster is mainly focused on a specific factor in the system of urban flood disaster vulnerability and the degree of vulnerability of urban flood disasters at a certain time, and the systematic study of the theories and methods related to the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is lacking, which leads to the difficulty of most of the research results. It is necessary to make a quantitative and systematic study on the system of urban flood disaster vulnerability, especially to analyze the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, in order to improve the ability of city to adapt and resist increasing flood disaster. The dynamic evolution process with time and space changes, including quantitative land use change and extreme rainstorm events and other important factors affecting the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, but there are few related literature related to the above research content.
Based on the conceptual model of urban flood disaster vulnerability, the improved C-NCSA algorithm, a series of analysis models of land use change characteristics and rainfall characteristics, the dynamic model of grey system, the generalized Pareto model and the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis are used in this paper, and the vulnerability of urban flood disaster is innovatively proposed. On the basis of urban land use change, the dynamic evolution process of urban flood disaster vulnerability and the impact of Extreme Rainstorm on the vulnerability analysis of urban flood disasters are studied, and a series of different periods, flood inundation depth and different land use scenarios are completed. Distribution map of vulnerability of urban flood disaster.
First, the quantitative model of urban flood disaster vulnerability is constructed. Through the scientific setting of the core elements of the urban flood disaster vulnerability system, including the exposure and sensitivity of urban flood disaster, the coupling relationship and interaction mechanism between the two core elements are discussed, and the quantitative model of flood disaster vulnerability is constructed and the city is quantified to calculate the city flood disaster. The vulnerability value of each unit area in the flood hazard area of the city, and the improved C-NCSA algorithm is used to cluster the calculated vulnerability values, and the spatial distribution of the vulnerability value after clustering is realized through the GIS software, the vulnerability distribution map in the dangerous area of the urban flood disaster under different submerged depths is drawn and the whole city flood is determined. Vulnerability degree of water hazard area and specific "vulnerability" area.
Secondly, the dynamic evolution process of urban flood disaster vulnerability based on land use change is discussed. By putting forward the response mechanism of land use change and urban flood disaster vulnerability, the causal relationship between land use change and urban flood disaster vulnerability is clarifying, and a series of land use change characteristics evolution analysis model is constructed. Monitoring the evolution process of the homogeneity, dominance and aggregation of various types of land use types in the dangerous area of urban flood disasters in different periods, using the quantitative model of urban flood disaster vulnerability to simulate and compare the vulnerability of urban flood disasters under different periods, different submerged depths and different land use scenarios. In order to determine the impact of the spatial and temporal distribution of land use on the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, the overall evolution trend analysis model of urban flood disaster vulnerability based on the dynamic model of grey system is used to determine the risk of flood disaster in the future. The overall evolution trend of vulnerability in the region is forecasted and prospected.
Finally, the influence of extreme rainstorm events on the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is analyzed. A series of rainfall feature evolution models, including rainfall trend feature model and rainfall catastrophe feature model, are put forward to analyze the evolution trend of annual rainfall and the evolution of urban rainfall characteristics. On the basis of the generalized Pareto model, the fitting model of the probability of extreme rainstorm events is constructed, and the probability of extreme rainstorm events in different historical periods of the city is combined to predict the occurrence probability of the extreme rainstorm events. In addition, the model of the influence of extreme rainstorm events to the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is set up. The characteristic parameters of the physical characteristics of extreme rainstorm events, including response time, rainfall characteristics and rainfall duration, and the vulnerability characteristic parameters of urban flood disasters, including age, sex, and quantitative analysis of the effects of different rainfall characteristics on the vulnerability of different populations in extreme rainstorm events, are determined. The vulnerability of urban flood disasters is the "vulnerable group", and the rainfall characteristic parameters of extreme rainstorm events which have a decisive influence on the vulnerability of different populations.
This paper will discuss the dynamic evolution process of the vulnerability of urban flood disaster based on the change of land use, and analyze the influence of the Extreme Rainstorm on the vulnerability analysis of the urban flood disaster, in order to make up the quantitative analysis and dynamics of the vulnerability of the current urban flood disaster. The gap in the evolutionary study is expected to build the flood control system of "risky flood management" in the future of China, and the government decision-makers provide scientific and effective technical support for the construction of land space planning and economic development based on flood risk management.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P426.616;TU998.4

【参考文献】