基于四值分析EPC分层检测模型的构建

发布时间：2018-05-17 12:53

本文选题：项目管理 + 挣值分析　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：挣值分析(又称赢得值分析)方法已广泛应用于国内外的项目管理实践。这一概念起源于19世纪,最初是用于美国海军在1960年代北极星项目中使用。1967年,美国国防部制定费用/进度控制标准(C/sCSC),将挣值分析作为一种有效的工具来管理成本和进度,主要应用于工业和政府项目的进度和费用控制。随后,许多国家分别制定了各自的政府和行业标准,形成了一个相对完整的理论体系,并有很强的可行性和可操作性。挣值评价技术目前被视为一个主流的评价项目成本和进度控制的方法,并被不断丰富完善以促进整个项目的综合评价。本文结合化工工程行业EPC总承包项目的特点和目前公司项目管理的现状,针对其高技术,高投入,高风险的特点,介绍如何调整传统的三值分析法,采用“四值分析法”来实时评价及预测总承包商的利润；如何构建一个实用的E\P\C分层检测模型来分化总承包项目的复杂性。并将“四值分析”和分层检测结合起来,构建一套适合公司项目利润及风险控制的监控模型,并将该模型在信息化平台上定制,用一个公司的实际项目进行试运行分析。比较该方法使用前后的控制指标变化和风险预测效果,作为项目管理体系的一个环节,使之既能针对公司现状解决问题又可以对同行业公司提供参考。
[Abstract]:Earned value analysis (also called earned value analysis) has been widely used in project management practice at home and abroad. This concept, which originated in the 19th century, was originally used by the U.S. Navy in the Polaris Project in the 1960s. In 1967, the Department of Defense established the cost / schedule control standard C / S CSCC, using earned value analysis as an effective tool to manage costs and schedules. Mainly used in industrial and government projects progress and cost control. Subsequently, many countries have formulated their own government and industry standards, formed a relatively complete theoretical system, and have strong feasibility and operability. The earned value evaluation technology is regarded as a mainstream method to evaluate the project cost and schedule control, and has been enriched and perfected to promote the comprehensive evaluation of the whole project. According to the characteristics of EPC general contracting project in chemical engineering industry and the present situation of project management in the company, this paper introduces how to adjust the traditional ternary analysis method according to the characteristics of high technology, high investment and high risk. The method of "quaternion analysis" is used to evaluate and predict the profit of general contractor in real time, and how to construct a practical E\ P\ C hierarchical detection model to differentiate the complexity of general contracting project. Combining "four value analysis" with hierarchical detection, a set of monitoring model suitable for company project profit and risk control is constructed, and the model is customized on the information platform, and the actual project of a company is used for trial operation analysis. Comparing the change of control index and the effect of risk prediction before and after the use of this method, as a link of the project management system, it can not only solve the problem according to the current situation of the company, but also provide reference for the same industry company.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;TU71

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