冶金工业项目绿色建造技术与成本风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 08:10

本文选题：冶金工业项目 + 绿色建造技术　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：目前，我国的环境污染已经成为亟待解决的问题。治理环境污染问题不仅仅体现在对已经污染的环境进行改造，还体现在采用节能减排技术减少生产过程中的污染物排放。建筑施工行业一直以来都是采用粗放式生产模式，这种生产模式是以高能耗、高污染与牺牲环境作为代价，在建筑施工行业推行绿色建造技术是解决这一问题的有效手段。建筑施工企业为了在激烈的市场竞争中取得优势，不惜以极低的价格竞标，这就导致建筑施工企业的利润微薄。利润是企业的生存之本，技术与经济相结合是成本控制的最有效方法，，只有控制好施工成本，才能实现施工企业的利润。采用绿色建造技术与加强成本风险管理是实现企业利润的最佳组合。它不仅符合企业的利润目标，而且符合国家当前的具体形势与政策。由于钢铁生产企业的萎靡，大规模的新建及扩建钢厂的情况已经很少，冶金建筑行业的竞争比其他建筑领域的竞争更加激烈。由于冶金工业项目的特殊性，使得其不能运用传统的预算模式对工程成本进行计价，进而对成本进行有计划的控制，这就导致冶金工业项目的成本风险远远大于民用与商业建筑等领域的成本风险。本文结合冶金建筑领域冷轧薄板项目的案例，阐述绿色建造技术与成本风险管理在冶金工业项目中的具体应用。其主要研究内容阐述如下。（1）把绿色建造技术与成本风险的关系进行了分析研究，澄清了采用绿色建造技术会增加施工成本的认识误区，指出采用适当的绿色建造技术可以节约工程成本，提出加强成本风险管理，节约施工成本从某种意义上来说即是推行绿色建造技术；（2）在整理与分析冷轧薄板项目传统建造技术的基础上，介绍了冷轧薄板项目的绿色建造工艺；结合冷轧薄板项目工程案例，介绍绿色建造工艺的实际应用；（3）研究了冶金工业项目的管理模式、费用构成及计价模式，指出传统的造价管理模式与预算计价方法不适合冶金工业项目，提出采用偏最小二乘回归分析（PLS1）法对冶金工业项目的历史成本资料进行回归分析，从而形成较为精确的计价结果，结合冷轧薄板项目案例介绍了偏最小二乘回归分析方法的实际应用，然后运用MATLAB/SIMULINK对冶金工业项目的计价结果进行风险仿真模拟，形成基于MATLAB/SIMULINK的成本风险估价模型，建立基于博弈论的成本报价策略模型；（4）由于冶金建设项目工艺的复杂性和特殊性，造成其工程成本在工程建设过程中会有较大的变化，提出应该在冶金工业项目的建设过程中建立成本风险预警系统，介绍了适合冶金工业项目成本风险预警的设计思路、成本风险影响指标体系，建立了冶金工业项目的成本风险预警模型；结合冷轧薄板项目的具体案例对风险预警系统进行了实证分析；（5）由于冶金工业项目成本目标及其约束要素具有在一定范围内的可变性，可以运用F线性规划对施工成本进行优化，并运用F线性规划原理对施工成本对进行了实证研究，最后通过分析影响成本的因素之间的因果关系，建立基于系统动力学的成本控制模型。通过对冶金工业项目中具有代表性的冷轧薄板项目绿色建造技术及成本风险管理进行理论与实证研究，提出适合冶金工业项目的成本风险管理思路与模式，倡导在冶金工业项目推行绿色建造技术，以达到相应国家政策与实现企业利润的目的。
[Abstract]:At present , our country ' s environmental pollution has become a problem to be solved urgently . The problem of environmental pollution is not only the transformation of the environment which has been polluted , but also the emission of pollutants in the production process by adopting the technology of energy saving and emission reduction . The construction industry has always adopted the rough production mode , which is the effective means to solve this problem at the cost of high energy consumption , high pollution and sacrifice environment . The green construction technology in the construction industry is an effective means to solve this problem .

In order to gain the advantage in the fierce market competition , the construction enterprises are not willing to bid at very low price , which leads to the profit of construction enterprises . The profit is the most effective method of cost control .

( 1 ) The relationship between green construction technology and cost risk is analyzed and studied . It is clarified that the green construction technology can increase the construction cost . It is pointed out that using proper green construction technology can save the project cost , raise cost risk management , and save the construction cost , which is to carry out green construction technology in a sense .

( 2 ) On the basis of arranging and analyzing the traditional construction technology of cold - rolled sheet project , the green building technology of cold - rolled sheet project is introduced .
Combined with the case of cold - rolled sheet project , the practical application of green building process is introduced .

( 3 ) The management mode , cost structure and valuation model of metallurgical industry project are studied . It is pointed out that the traditional cost management mode and budget pricing method are not suitable for metallurgical industry project .

( 4 ) Due to the complexity and particularity of the process of metallurgical construction projects , the cost of engineering is greatly changed during the construction process . It is suggested that the cost risk early warning system should be established in the construction process of metallurgical industry projects , and the design thinking , cost risk impact indicator system suitable for the project cost risk early warning of metallurgical industry is introduced , and the cost risk early warning model of metallurgical industry project is established ;
Based on the concrete case of cold - rolled sheet project , an empirical analysis of risk early warning system is carried out .

( 5 ) Since the cost objective of metallurgical industry project and its constraint element have variability within a certain range , the construction cost can be optimized by using the F linear programming , and the construction cost is studied by using the F linear programming principle . Finally , the cost control model based on the system dynamics is established by analyzing the causal relationship between the factors influencing the cost .

Based on the theory and demonstration research on the green construction technology and cost risk management of cold - rolled sheet project in metallurgical industry project , this paper puts forward the idea and model of cost risk management suitable for metallurgical industry project , and advocates the implementation of green construction technology in metallurgical industry project to achieve the aim of corresponding national policy and the realization of enterprise profit .
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU745.7;TU723.3

【参考文献】