城市供水安全防范平台技术研发与实践

发布时间：2018-05-30 18:52

本文选题：水质安全评价 + 风险评价　；参考：《青岛理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：水是城市生存和发展的生命线，是保障城市正常发展和社会稳定的基本要素。城市系统与水环境之间存在着相互补充和相互制约的辩证关系。一方面，城市系统不断从水环境中汲取水资源用于城市中人类的生产与生活活动；另一方面，又向水环境中释放着人类生产活动的副产物——污染物，而城市系统就是在这种相互作用的关系中不断向前发展。近年来，受到工农业生产规模的扩大、城市人口激增和环境恶化等因素的影响，我国绝大多数城市的水环境呈现出不断恶化的发展趋势。同时，重大突发性水环境污染事件频发，给原本就脆弱的水环境体系带来了新的威胁，并对经济、社会和生态系统造成了巨大的损失。当前，我国许多城市已经开展了城市供水安全防范的研究，分析风险因素，制定应对方案和应急预案，以求将水环境污染风险降低到最低。但是，由于不同地区的地理位置不同，气候条件和水文状况不同，城市水厂净水工艺和原水状况不同，甚至由于不同地区经济发展特点不同导致的水体特征污染物的不同，应对水体污染风险的措施自然也不一样，很难形成一套适应于某一类区域成熟有效的安全防范体系。因此，需要针对研究目标的城市，建立符合目标城市供水系统特点的安全防范体系。本文以华北地区某城市水源水和城市供水管网系统为研究对象，针对其水环境的实际情况，结合国内外的研究成果，重点展开水环境风险评价和水环境安全水平变化趋势分析与预警的研究，尝试建立基于城市供水系统水质安全评价模型的供水系统风险预警体系，并将体系应用于目标案例的实践之中，以判断体系的适用性。主要研究内容如下：建立水库原水水质风险评价模型。针对案例水库水质富营养化状况，采用基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)的模糊综合评价方法对水质富营养化水平进行综合评价，分析其潜在风险和不利因素，并最终构建目标水库富营养化风险评价系统界面。研究结果表明案例水源水近年来水质状况良好，每年夏季会出现水质低潮，原因是由于温度的升高以及氮含量的升高，诱发了水体藻类大量繁殖，因此针对案例水源水含氮量高的风险隐患，提出预警响应。城市供水系统水质安全评价体系的构建。通过对案例城市供水系统特点的分析，建立针对该城市供水系统的安全评价指标体系，并根据改进的网络分析法(Analytic Network Process，ANP)确定指标体系权重，并利用模糊综合评价法对案例城市供水系统进行整体性综合评价和单管评价。评价结果表明虽然案例城市管网和管段总体安全性能差强人意，但是存在较大的风险隐患，主要由于管道铺设年代久远，腐蚀严重，造成水压、水质安全水平下降。以此评价结果为依据，结合管网最优化技术研究，对目标城市管网进行模拟改造，并将改造结果进行对比评价分析，评估改造后的效果，为城市供水系统管网改造提供理论依据和技术支持，同时构建以ANP法为基础的城市供水系统安全评价界面。通过对水库原水水质风险评价体系和城市供水系统安全评价体系的研究，构建出适用于我国北方地区区域水环境安全评价体系模型，并以此为基础建立起成熟的水环境安全评价系统。以水环境安全评价系统为核心，以水质变化趋势预测研究为有效补充，以水环境安全应急预案为措施，，构建水环境风险预警系统，并将预警系统实施于目标案例的实践之中。
[Abstract]:Water is the lifeline of urban survival and development, and it is the basic element to ensure the normal development and social stability of the city. There is a dialectical relationship between the urban system and the water environment. On the one hand, the urban system draws water resources from the water environment to the production and living activities of the human beings in the city; on the other hand, In the water environment, the by-products of human production activities are released, and the urban system is developing continuously in this kind of interaction. In recent years, the water environment in most cities of our country has been worsened by the expansion of the scale of industrial and agricultural production, the increase of urban population and the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, major sudden water environmental pollution incidents have brought new threats to the fragile water environment system, and caused great losses to the economy, society and the ecosystem.
At present, many cities in our country have carried out the research on the safety and prevention of urban water supply, analyze the risk factors, formulate the countermeasures and emergency plans, in order to reduce the risk of water pollution to the lowest. However, because of the different geographical location of different regions, the different climate conditions and hydrology condition, the water purification process and the original water situation are different in the urban water plant. Even because of the different characteristics of the water body caused by different economic development characteristics in different regions, the measures to deal with the risk of water pollution are naturally different. It is difficult to form a set of effective security system to adapt to a certain type of region. Therefore, it is necessary to set up a special City in accordance with the target city and establish a special city water supply system. Taking the water source water and the urban water supply network system of a city in North China as the research object, aiming at the actual situation of its water environment and combining the research results both at home and abroad, this paper focuses on the risk assessment of water environment and the research on the trend analysis and early warning of water environment safety level, and tries to establish the urban water supply system based on the research. The water quality safety assessment model is used to predict the risk early warning system of water supply system, and the system is applied to the practice of the target case to judge the applicability of the system. The main contents are as follows:
The water quality risk assessment model of the reservoir is set up. According to the eutrophication status of the water quality of the case, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to evaluate the water eutrophication level synthetically, analyze the potential risk and the non profit factor, and finally construct the Eutrophic wind of the target reservoir. The results show that the water quality of the water source water is good in recent years, and the water quality is low in summer. The reason is the rise of temperature and the increase of nitrogen content, which induces a large number of algae propagation in the water body. Therefore, the early warning response is put forward to the risk of high nitrogen content in the case water source.
The construction of water quality safety evaluation system for urban water supply system. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the case city water supply system, the safety evaluation index system for the urban water supply system is established, and the weight of the index system is determined according to the improved network analysis method (Analytic Network Process, ANP), and the case city is provided by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The overall comprehensive evaluation and single pipe evaluation of the water system are carried out. The results show that although the overall safety performance of the pipe network and pipe section of the case city is poor, there is a big risk hidden danger, which is mainly due to the long time of pipeline laying, serious corrosion, water pressure and the decrease of water quality safety level. The optimization technology research, the target city pipe network simulation transformation, and the result of the transformation evaluation analysis, evaluation of the effect after the transformation, provide theoretical basis and technical support for the urban water supply system network transformation, and build the safety evaluation interface of urban water supply system based on ANP method.
Through the study of the water quality risk assessment system of the reservoir and the safety evaluation system of the urban water supply system, a model of regional water environment safety evaluation system suitable for the northern region of China is built, and a mature water environment safety evaluation system is established on the basis of this model.
Taking the water environment safety evaluation system as the core, taking the water quality change trend prediction research as an effective supplement, taking the emergency plan of water environment safety as the measure, the water environment risk early warning system is constructed, and the early warning system is implemented in the practice of the target case.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU991

【参考文献】