工程项目工期风险作用路径及防范研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 12:54

本文选题：工期风险 + 风险管理　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：工程项目建设是一项复杂的系统工程，其建设周期长，涉及多个参与主体，包括业主、承包商、监理方、设计单位、供应方等，且所处内外环境复杂，因此，工程项目实施过程将面临多种风险，传统三大目标的实现受到严重威胁。作为工程项目三大目标之一的工期，也不例外，研究显示，90%的工程项目存在或多或少的工期延误现象，可以说提高工期风险管理水平已经成为各国研究人员及项目管理人员的共识。由于工程项目建设的系统性特征，，各工期风险因素之间并不是孤立存在的，而是相互关联、相互作用的。因此，系统的分析工期风险作用机理及作用路径，寻找关键工期风险作用路径及风险因素，是当前研究人员及项目管理人员迫切需要解决的问题之一。论文首先结合多米诺骨牌理论和能量释放理论，从风险生成、风险共生、风险传递三个层面，探讨了一般风险作用机理，由此入手，在界定工期风险概念的基础上，根据工程项目实际特点，从三个层级划分出工期风险源，并分析了工期风险作用机理。其次，论文综合运用案例研究、文献研究、专家访谈的方法，识别出工期风险因素，并基于工期风险作用机理对识别出的风险因素进行分类，最终确定出风险清单。再次，通过深入研究相关文献以及访谈专家，识别出工期风险作用路径，构建工期风险作用路径结构方程模型，并通过问卷调查的方法收集工期延误的实际案例，对模型适配度进行检验，根据检验结果不断修正，得到与实际情况较匹配的模型。最后，对经过检验的工期风险作用路径模型，深入分析每一条风险作用路径和风险因素，根据分析结果，识别出关键作用路径和风险因素。在此基础上，结合我国目前建筑业的现实情况，分别从风险阻断和防范风险源的角度提出针对性的工期风险防范措施。工期风险产生源头多、作用路径广、涉及面宽，如果只针对单一风险因素采取防范措施，则难以掌控全局。论文深入分析工期风险作用路径，旨在“从点到线”对工期风险进行防范，为工程项目管理人员提供参考，具有较好的理论意义和实践意义。
[Abstract]:The construction of engineering project is a complex system engineering, its construction period is long, involves a number of participants, including the owner, contractor, supervisor, design unit, supplier and so on, and the internal and external environment is complex, so, The implementation process of engineering project will face many kinds of risks, and the realization of the traditional three goals will be seriously threatened. As one of the three major objectives of the project, the construction period is no exception. The research shows that 90% of the projects have more or less delay in the construction period. It can be said that improving the level of project risk management has become the consensus of researchers and project managers. Because of the systematic characteristics of project construction, the risk factors do not exist in isolation, but are interrelated and interact with each other. Therefore, it is one of the urgent problems for researchers and project managers to analyze the mechanism and path of duration risk and find out the key risk path and risk factors. Firstly, combining domino theory and energy release theory, this paper discusses the mechanism of general risk action from three levels: risk generation, risk symbiosis and risk transmission. From this point of view, the concept of duration risk is defined. According to the actual characteristics of the project, the source of the duration risk is divided into three levels, and the mechanism of the duration risk is analyzed. Secondly, the paper synthetically uses the method of case study, literature study and expert interview to identify the risk factors of the time limit, and classify the risk factors based on the mechanism of the risk of the time limit, and finally determine the risk list. Thirdly, through the in-depth study of relevant literature and interviews with experts, identify the duration risk path, construct the duration risk path structure equation model, and collect the actual cases of the delay by questionnaire. The adaptability of the model is tested, and the model matching with the actual situation is obtained according to the result of the test. Finally, every risk action path and risk factor are analyzed in depth for the tested risk path model, and the key action path and risk factor are identified according to the analysis results. On this basis, combined with the current situation of construction industry in our country, this paper puts forward some measures to prevent the construction period risk from the angle of risk blocking and risk source prevention. The duration risk has many sources, wide action path and wide scope, so it is difficult to control the whole situation if we only take preventive measures against a single risk factor. The purpose of this paper is to prevent the construction period risk from point to line, and to provide a reference for the project manager, which has good theoretical and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU722

【参考文献】