城镇需水量预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 12:43

【摘要】：水资源是人类不可或缺的生活资料，也是促进经济发展、社会进步和实现可持续发展目标的最重要的物质保证。但是包括我国在内的世界上许多国家和地区都一直面临着越来越突出的水资源短缺、水质污染严重等问题，让世界各国越来越重视水资源的合理规划和利用。经过几十年的发展，需水量预测已经在供水系统规划、设计、节水工作等相关领域中得到了广泛应用并发挥了重要作用。与欧美发达国家相比，我国经济不发达、人口众多的国情决定了我国城镇需水量预测的情况更为复杂，目前仍无法找到统一的需水量预测方法能够适用于我国各个城镇的用水情况。本文立足于解决我国需水量预测在使用中存在的问题，提出适用于我国不同用水情况的城镇需水量预测通用公式并用此公式预测深圳市规划年份的需水量。主要内容如下：一、简要介绍国内外水资源现状和需水量预测的研究动态，，明确城镇需水量预测方法研究对一个城镇、一个流域或是全国范围内实现供水安全，保证我国可持续发展等方面的重要意义。二、对城镇需水量预测的常用方法进行简要评价，找出它们在城镇需水量预测中出现的问题，明确城镇需水量预测要考虑的要点、基本原则和基本步骤。三、对城镇用水量的主要影响因素依次进行分析并明确需水量预测中最重要的影响因子，确定城镇各部分用水量的预测方法，最后提出基于人口和GDP的城镇需水量预测公式。四、将城镇需水量预测公式的应用于深圳市规划年的需水量预测。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the indispensable means of living for human beings, and also the most important material guarantee for promoting economic development, social progress and achieving the goal of sustainable development. However, many countries and regions in the world, including China, have been faced with more and more outstanding water resources shortage, serious water pollution and other problems, which make the countries in the world pay more and more attention to the rational planning and utilization of water resources. After decades of development, water demand prediction has been widely used and played an important role in water supply system planning, design, water saving and other related fields. Compared with the developed countries in Europe and the United States, the situation of our country's underdeveloped economy and large population determines that the forecasting of urban water demand in China is more complicated. At present, it is still impossible to find a unified forecasting method of water demand that can be applied to the situation of water use in every town of our country. Based on solving the problems existing in water demand prediction in China, this paper puts forward a general formula for urban water demand prediction suitable for different water use conditions in China, and uses this formula to predict the water demand of Shenzhen in the planning year. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the current situation of water resources at home and abroad and the research trends of water demand prediction are briefly introduced, and the research on urban water demand forecasting method is defined to realize water supply safety in a town, a river basin or a whole country. It is important to ensure the sustainable development of our country. Second, the common methods of urban water demand prediction are briefly evaluated, the problems they appear in urban water demand forecasting are found out, and the key points, basic principles and basic steps to be considered in urban water demand forecasting are clarified. Thirdly, the main influencing factors of urban water consumption are analyzed in turn, and the most important influencing factors in water demand prediction are defined, and the forecasting methods of water consumption in different parts of cities and towns are determined. Finally, the formula of urban water demand prediction based on population and GDP is put forward. Fourthly, the formula of urban water demand prediction is applied to the forecast of Shenzhen city water demand in planning year.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU991.31

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