基于群决策与证据理论的重庆地区生态城指标体系及决策模型研究

发布时间：2018-08-12 19:57

【摘要】：正在飞速发展的中国城市化进程正面临着巨大挑战，构建生态城市成为实现可持续发展的唯一出路。生态城市指标体系是描述生态城市建设内容、范围，并体现生态城市发展的方向和重点的可度量参数的集合。科学的制定指标体系、确定权重分配是合理地进行生态城市评价、正确引导生态城市发展的基础与前提。生态城指标体系的作用并不仅限于评价，其更有意义的作用应当是对生态城市建设发展的积极引导。根据指标体系建立生态城市发展决策模型，从而对生态城市发展作出最优决策，使其发展最符合指标体系的要求，应当是有意义且符合生态城市发展需求的。本文首先对国内外多个生态城市指标体系进行对比研究，根据重庆市发展现状与自身特色，采用专家咨询法建立重庆市生态城市评价指标体系框架。然后通过问卷方式获取专家个体权重分配意见，利用层次分析法构造140个判断矩阵并进行处理，得到一级指标、六类二级指标各20个相对权重关系分配函数。引入群决策中一致性分析的思想，计算各类权重分配函数两两之间的相似系数共1995个，并以此构造7个20阶相似矩阵，计算得每个专家在每类指标权重分配时的可信度，作为群体专家意见集结阶段的专家权重，以此对20位专家的分配函数进行融合，从而确定生态城市评价指标体系的权重体系。最后根据所建立的生态城市评价指标体系，用证据理论建立生态城市发展方案决策模型，利用证据理论对不确定信息表达的能力，使模型能在不完全信息下作出科学合理的决策，并结合算例对模型进行验证。本文所建立的重庆市生态城市评价指标体系分为三级结构，，由土地资源利用及空间、建筑、资源与环境、交通、工业、城市运营管理六个指标大类组成，二级指标23个，指标项共59个。由本文权重模型结合20位专家所给出的意见，计算得重庆市生态城市评价指标体系中各类指标相对权重关系，指标大类中“建筑”和“资源与环境”分别占体系权重的27.7%、26.9%，为体系中的绝对重点；土地资源利用及空间也赋予了较大权重，体现了“山城”重庆对于土地资源的重视；对于二级指标，建筑节能、场地开发、产业绿色化、绿色社区建设、公共交通、可再生能源利用、区域自然环境等都被赋予了相对较大的权重。本文所建立的DS/AHP决策模型可很好地应用于生态城市发展方案决策，在不完全信息下个体决策者可表达决策的不确定性的同时，对来自不同决策个体的证据进行合成后可显著降低决策的不确定性，使基于信任度和似然度形成的决策更一致，从而使最终决策更明确。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of China's urbanization process is facing a huge challenge, the construction of an ecological city is the only way to achieve sustainable development. The eco-city index system is a set of measurable parameters that describe the content and scope of eco-city construction and reflect the direction and emphasis of eco-city development. Scientific index system and weight distribution are the basis and prerequisite for the rational evaluation of ecological city and the correct guidance for the development of ecological city. The function of eco-city index system is not limited to evaluation, its more meaningful role should be to guide the construction and development of eco-city. The decision model of eco-city development is established according to the index system, so as to make the optimal decision on the development of ecological city and make its development accord with the requirements of the index system, which should be meaningful and meet the needs of ecological city development. In this paper, several eco-city index systems at home and abroad are compared and studied. According to the present situation of Chongqing's development and its own characteristics, the expert consultation method is used to establish the evaluation index system framework of Chongqing's eco-city. Then the expert weight allocation opinions are obtained by questionnaire, 140 judgment matrices are constructed and processed by AHP, and the first class index and 20 relative weight relation distribution functions of six secondary indexes are obtained. By introducing the idea of consistency analysis in group decision making, the similarity coefficients between two pairs of weight distribution functions are calculated in 1995, and seven similar matrices of order 20 are constructed, and the reliability of each expert in the weight distribution of each index is calculated. As the expert weight in the gathering stage of group expert opinion, the distribution function of 20 experts is fused to determine the weight system of eco-city evaluation index system. Finally, according to the established ecological city evaluation index system, the decision model of ecological city development scheme is established by evidence theory, and the ability of evidence theory to express uncertain information is used. The model can make scientific and reasonable decision under incomplete information, and the model is verified by an example. The evaluation index system of ecological city in Chongqing is divided into three levels. It is composed of land resource utilization and space, construction, resources and environment, traffic, industry, urban operation and management. The total number of indicators is 59. Based on the weight model of this paper and the opinions given by 20 experts, the relative weight relations of various indexes in the evaluation index system of Chongqing eco-city are calculated. "Building" and "resources and environment" account for 27.726.9 of the total weight of the system respectively, which is the absolute focus of the system, and the use of land resources and space are also given greater weight, which reflects the importance attached to land resources by "mountain cities" in Chongqing. For secondary indicators, building energy conservation, site development, green industry, green community construction, public transport, renewable energy use, regional natural environment and so on have been given a relatively large weight. The DS/AHP decision model established in this paper can be well applied to the decision making of eco-city development scheme, while the uncertainty of decision can be expressed by individual decision makers under incomplete information. After combining evidence from different decision making individuals, the uncertainty of decision can be significantly reduced, and the decision based on trust and likelihood can be more consistent, thus making the final decision more definite.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU984.115

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