基于FAHP的国际工程项目风险识别与评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 11:28

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的日益风靡,国内企业纷纷采用“走出去”战略,对外贸易和国际工程事业经过近几十年的蓬勃发展,我国在国际工程项目中取得了辉煌的成就,项目合同额和营业额都在稳步增长,逐渐形成了以亚洲市场为主、深入拉丁美洲和非洲市场、开拓欧美市场,恢复中东市场的多元化格局。但是,在看到国际工程项目高收益的同时,也要看到国际工程项目中存在的高风险,如何有效合理地对国际工程项目进行风险评价,进而采取相应措施控制或者降低风险的产生,建立完善健全的风险管理体系,对于促进国际工程项目的顺利实施具有重要意义。针对国际工程项目面临的市场环境,和当前我国外经型企业在应对风险和风险控制中所表现出来的不足,有必要对我国国际工程项目的风险管理理论深入研究,以便提高我国外经型企业风险管理的能力和竞争力。基于此,本文在相关理论研究的基础上,结合全面风险管理思想,针对外经型国际工程项目的特点、风险管理现状和困难,通过德尔菲法、头脑风暴法、流程图法、问卷或核查表法等方法识别出主要风险,总结出外经型企业的国际工程项目的风险类型,认为可以从宏观风险因素、主体风险因素、技术风险因素三方面着手考察影响因素,在此基础上设计出国际工程项目风险预警指标体系,然后构建出基于模糊综合评价法(FAHP)的国际工程项目风险评价模型,从而科学有效地对企业风险进行综合评价,并采取针对性措施进行风险控制。本文通过对国际工程项目的风险管理研究,希望能够找到适合我国外经型企业承包商的一套较完整的风险管理体系,从而提高工程项目的管理效率,并结合国际工程项目的特点识别出在项目过程中可能遇到的各种风险及其来源,进而设计科学的项目风险评价指标体系,然后选取科学有效的方法构建国际工程项目风险的评价模型,对项目风险进行科学合理的评价,制定出项目风险应对和控制策略。这样才能为我国外经型企业的风险管理提供一定的参考价值,为这些企业在参与竞争激烈的国际工程承包市场中提供切实的保护伞。
[Abstract]:With the increasing popularity of economic globalization, domestic enterprises have adopted the strategy of "going out". After the vigorous development of foreign trade and international engineering in recent decades, China has made brilliant achievements in international engineering projects. The amount of project contracts and turnover are steadily increasing, gradually forming a market-oriented Asia, in-depth pull-out. In the Americas and African markets, we will open up the European and American markets and restore the diversified pattern of the Middle East market.
However, while seeing the high profit of international engineering projects, we should also see the high risk existing in international engineering projects. How to effectively and reasonably evaluate the risk of international engineering projects, and then take corresponding measures to control or reduce the risk, and establish a sound risk management system to promote international engineering projects. It is of great significance to carry out smoothly. In view of the market environment faced by international engineering projects and the shortcomings of foreign economic enterprises in dealing with risks and risk control, it is necessary to make a thorough study on the risk management theory of international engineering projects in order to improve the risk management ability and competition of foreign economic enterprises in China. Power.
Based on this, this paper, on the basis of the relevant theoretical research, combined with the idea of comprehensive risk management, aiming at the characteristics of international economic projects, the status of risk management and difficulties, identifies the main risks through Delphi method, brainstorming method, flow chart method, questionnaire or checklist method, and summarizes the international engineering projects of foreign economic enterprises. Risk types can be investigated from three aspects: macro-risk factors, main risk factors and technical risk factors. On this basis, the risk early warning index system of international engineering projects is designed, and then the risk evaluation model of international engineering projects based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FAHP) is constructed, so as to be scientific and effective. The risk of enterprises is comprehensively evaluated and targeted measures are taken for risk control.
Through the research on the risk management of international engineering projects, this paper hopes to find a relatively complete risk management system suitable for the contractors of foreign economic enterprises in China, so as to improve the management efficiency of Engineering projects, and identifies the various risks and their sources in the process of the project combined with the characteristics of international engineering projects, and then Design a scientific project risk evaluation index system, then select a scientific and effective method to construct the international project risk evaluation model, make a scientific and reasonable evaluation of the project risk, and formulate the project risk response and control strategy. Enterprises will provide a practical umbrella in the fierce competition of international project contracting market.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71

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