杭州市老年人口空间分布及演化规律研究

发布时间：2018-09-06 17:54

【摘要】：中国在1999年已进入了国际公认的老龄化社会,是目前老年人口最多的国家。根据国家统计局“五普”和“六普”资料,2000-2010年我国人口老龄化程度加速发展,同时老年人口分布具有明显的空间分异特征。人口老龄化带来的城乡社会结构变化及其对城乡发展的影响是当前我国新型城镇发展过程中急需研究、回应的重要问题。如何根据各地老年人口的增长趋势、空间分布特征以及发展演变规律等实际情况,针对性的规划布局养老服务设施也是当前我国城乡规划领域的热点问题。近年来杭州市的老年人口规模快速提高,老年人口分布呈现出明显的空间差异。因此,本文以杭州市为实证,研究2000-2010年期间杭州市区老年人口规模的增长趋势及老年人口空间分布的演化规律,在此基础上提出针对杭州市实际的养老设施规划布局的对策建议。首先,以“五普”和“六普”数据为基础,通过社会统计学软件SPSS和地理信息系统软件GIS的应用,实现老年人口分布的空间化、图形化,直观地反映杭州市老年人口的分布特征。其次,通过老年人口密度的空间分布的分析,揭示老年人口分布的空间演化规律。借助人口密度研究的经典理论模型,对老年人口密度分布进行模型拟合,得出符合杭州市老年人口变化规律的具体模型。根据模型的参数变化,进一步分析杭州市老年人口空间分布的整体特征与演变规律。再次,在分析得出杭州市老年人口呈现圈层式分布规律的基础上,选择典型的片区,开展老年人口结构、年龄中位数、家庭抚养比等的深入分析,以揭示不同圈层的具体养老需求特征。最后,根据上述研究结论,提出适应杭州市人口老龄化发展实际的养老设施规划布局策略的基本建议。
[Abstract]:China has entered an internationally recognized aging society in 1999 and now has the largest population of the elderly. According to the data of the "Fifth and Sixth Populations" of the National Bureau of Statistics, the degree of population aging in China accelerated from 2000 to 2010, and the distribution of the elderly population has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. Structural changes and their impact on urban and rural development are important issues that need to be studied and answered urgently in the process of the development of new cities and towns in our country. Hot issues in the domain.
In recent years, the scale of the elderly population in Hangzhou has increased rapidly, and the distribution of the elderly population shows obvious spatial differences. Therefore, this paper takes Hangzhou as an example to study the growth trend of the elderly population size and the evolution law of the spatial distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou during 2000-2010. On this basis, it puts forward the actual pension in Hangzhou. Suggestions for the layout of facilities.
Firstly, based on the data of the Fifth and Sixth Census, the spatial and graphic distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou is realized through the application of social statistics software SPSS and geographic information system software GIS.
Secondly, through the analysis of the spatial distribution of the population density of the elderly, the spatial evolution law of the population distribution of the elderly is revealed. With the help of the classical theoretical model of the population density study, the distribution of the population density of the elderly is modeled and fitted, and a concrete model which accords with the change law of the elderly population in Hangzhou is obtained. The overall characteristics and evolution of the spatial distribution of elderly population in Hangzhou.
Thirdly, on the basis of the analysis of the circular distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou, the typical districts are selected to carry out in-depth analysis of the elderly population structure, median age, family support ratio and so on, in order to reveal the specific characteristics of different circles of the elderly demand.
Finally, according to the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some basic suggestions on the planning and layout strategy of old-age facilities to adapt to the actual development of population aging in Hangzhou.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D669.6;TU984

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