中国城市化阶段建材工业的节能与碳排放研究
发布时间：2018-11-07 13:21
【摘要】：目前,中国正处于城市化快速推进的阶段。经过改革开放三十多年来的经济增长,中国已一跃成为全球第一大能源消费国和二氧化碳排放国。由于庞大的人口基数,以及城市居民较高的能源消费水平,中国未来的能源需求仍将持续增长。通过与发达国家的比较,本文发现,中国的能源需求和二氧化碳排放,均受到发展阶段的约束。较为快速的经济增长,意味着较低的能源利用效率,且要求有充足且廉价的能源作为支撑。以煤为主,是中国城市化阶段能源消费结构的主要特征。然而,考虑到能源稀缺、环境污染和气候变化等问题,城市化的快速推进所引致的能源消费的快速增长将是中国经济可持续增长所面临的挑战。工业是中国能源消费和二氧化碳排放的主要贡献者。城市化的发展必然带动基础设施建设,而基础上设施建设的扩张,则意味着对水泥、陶瓷、玻璃等建筑材料需求的不断上升。建筑材料工业是中国六大高耗能工业之一,其行业能源消费约占据全国能源消费的9%,行业电力消费约占据全社会消费量的6%。建材工业还是中国的支柱产业,其行业增加值每年贡献约1%的GDP。建材工业的能源需求和二氧化碳排放体现了阶段性的特征,其节能减排潜力对于中国实现能源需求总量控制和低碳经济转型具有重要意义。在城市化阶段的大背景下,本文采用国际比较的方法,探究了能源需求和二氧化碳排放的阶段性特征,分析了经济增长与能源需求和二氧化碳排放的关系,并预测中国城市化阶段的能源需求和二氧化碳排放的峰值与拐点。更进一步,本文以建材工业为具体的研究对象,主要回答了以下几个问题：在城市化阶段下,推动建材工业能源需求的主要因素是什么?不同经济增长情形下,建材工业的能源需求及节能量如何?在不同情景模拟下,建材工业的电力需求及节电量怎样?与具有最高效率的日本建材工业相比,中国建材工业电力强度下降的潜力如何?影响建材工业二氧化碳排放的主要因素有哪些,行业的减排潜力有多大?主要的研究结论有以下几点：第一,中国的能源需求体现出阶段性的特征。伴随城市化的发展,中国的能源消费高速增长且刚性增长。能源需求与经济发展水平之间呈现倒U型关系。第二,在城市化阶段,二氧化碳排放具有刚性增长的特征。经济增长、城市化、能源强度和对建材产品的需求是影响中国二氧化碳排放的主要因素。节能是降低二氧化碳的主要手段。第三,建材工业的能源需求主要受到经济增长的影响。能源价格的提高,科技进步以及人均生产率的提高均有利于建材工业能源需求的降低。第四,经济发展水平是建材工业电力消费增长的主要驱动力,而行业人均增加值、行业研发强度和电力价格是推动行业耗电量下降的主要因素。第五,技术进步、劳动生产率、电力价格和行业密集度有利于建材工业电力强度的下降。到2020年,中国建材工业的电力强度将显著下降,甚至可以达到当前日本建材工业的水平。更加积极的节能政策,有利于降低行业的电力强度,实现更大的节电潜力。第六,工业活动效应是建材工业二氧化碳排放增加的主导因素,而能源强度效应则是建材工业二氧化碳排放降低的主要贡献力量。燃料间替代有利于降低行业的二氧化碳排放。节能应当是降低行业能源强度和二氧化碳排放的主要策略。
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the stage of rapid urbanization. After more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has become the world's first-largest consumer of energy and carbon dioxide. China's future energy needs will continue to grow due to the large population base and the high level of energy consumption of urban residents. By comparison with the developed countries, this paper has found that China's energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are all subject to the development stage. A more rapid economic growth means lower energy use efficiency and requires sufficient and inexpensive energy as the support. It is the main characteristic of energy consumption structure in the stage of China's urbanization. However, taking into account the problems of energy scarcity, environmental pollution and climate change, the rapid growth of energy consumption caused by the rapid urbanization of urbanization will be a challenge to the sustainable growth of China's economy. Industry is a major contributor to China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The development of urbanization must drive the construction of the infrastructure, and the expansion of the construction of the facilities on the foundation means the rising demand of the building materials such as cement, ceramics and glass. The construction material industry is one of the six high energy-consuming industries in China. The energy consumption in the industry accounts for about 9% of the national energy consumption, and the consumption of electric power accounts for about 6% of the total social consumption. The building material industry is also the pillar industry of China, and the added value of its industry contributes about 1% of GDP per year. The energy demand and carbon dioxide emission of the building material industry are characterized by stages, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the building material industry is of great significance to China's total energy demand control and low-carbon economic transformation. In the background of the urbanization, this paper uses the international comparison method to explore the characteristics of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission, and analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy demand and carbon dioxide emission. The peak and inflection point of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission in China's urbanization stage are predicted. Furthermore, based on the building material industry, this paper mainly answers the following questions: what is the main factor to promote the energy demand of building materials in the stage of urbanization? in that case of different economic growth, what is the energy demand and energy saving of the building material industry? What is the power demand and power saving of the building material industry under different scenarios? What is the potential for a decline in the power strength of China's building materials compared to the Japanese construction industry with the highest efficiency? What are the main factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission of building materials and how big is the emission reduction potential of the industry? The main conclusions are as follows: First, China's energy demand reflects the characteristics of the stage. With the development of urbanization, China's energy consumption has increased at a high speed and its rigid growth. There is a U-type relationship between energy demand and economic development level. Second, in the stage of urbanization, carbon dioxide emissions have the characteristics of rigid growth. Economic growth, urbanization, energy intensity and demand for building materials are the main factors that affect China's carbon dioxide emissions. Energy conservation is the main means to reduce carbon dioxide. Third, the energy demand of building materials industry is mainly affected by economic growth. The improvement of energy prices, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of the per-capita productivity are both conducive to the reduction of energy demand for building materials. Fourth, the level of economic development is the main driving force of the growth of power consumption in the building materials industry, and the per-capita added value of the industry, the development intensity of the industry and the electric power price are the main factors that push the power consumption of the industry to drop. Fifth, technological progress, labor productivity, power price and industry intensity are conducive to the decline of the power strength of the building materials industry. By 2020, the power intensity of China's building materials industry will be significantly reduced, and even the current level of Japanese building materials industry can be achieved. a more active energy-saving policy is beneficial to reducing the power intensity of the industry and achieving greater power-saving potential. Sixth, the effect of industrial activity is the leading factor of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry, and the energy intensity effect is the main contribution to the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry. inter-fuel substitution is beneficial to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. Energy conservation should be the main strategy to reduce the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions in the industry.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;X322
，
本文编号：2316495
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the stage of rapid urbanization. After more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has become the world's first-largest consumer of energy and carbon dioxide. China's future energy needs will continue to grow due to the large population base and the high level of energy consumption of urban residents. By comparison with the developed countries, this paper has found that China's energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are all subject to the development stage. A more rapid economic growth means lower energy use efficiency and requires sufficient and inexpensive energy as the support. It is the main characteristic of energy consumption structure in the stage of China's urbanization. However, taking into account the problems of energy scarcity, environmental pollution and climate change, the rapid growth of energy consumption caused by the rapid urbanization of urbanization will be a challenge to the sustainable growth of China's economy. Industry is a major contributor to China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The development of urbanization must drive the construction of the infrastructure, and the expansion of the construction of the facilities on the foundation means the rising demand of the building materials such as cement, ceramics and glass. The construction material industry is one of the six high energy-consuming industries in China. The energy consumption in the industry accounts for about 9% of the national energy consumption, and the consumption of electric power accounts for about 6% of the total social consumption. The building material industry is also the pillar industry of China, and the added value of its industry contributes about 1% of GDP per year. The energy demand and carbon dioxide emission of the building material industry are characterized by stages, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the building material industry is of great significance to China's total energy demand control and low-carbon economic transformation. In the background of the urbanization, this paper uses the international comparison method to explore the characteristics of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission, and analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy demand and carbon dioxide emission. The peak and inflection point of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission in China's urbanization stage are predicted. Furthermore, based on the building material industry, this paper mainly answers the following questions: what is the main factor to promote the energy demand of building materials in the stage of urbanization? in that case of different economic growth, what is the energy demand and energy saving of the building material industry? What is the power demand and power saving of the building material industry under different scenarios? What is the potential for a decline in the power strength of China's building materials compared to the Japanese construction industry with the highest efficiency? What are the main factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission of building materials and how big is the emission reduction potential of the industry? The main conclusions are as follows: First, China's energy demand reflects the characteristics of the stage. With the development of urbanization, China's energy consumption has increased at a high speed and its rigid growth. There is a U-type relationship between energy demand and economic development level. Second, in the stage of urbanization, carbon dioxide emissions have the characteristics of rigid growth. Economic growth, urbanization, energy intensity and demand for building materials are the main factors that affect China's carbon dioxide emissions. Energy conservation is the main means to reduce carbon dioxide. Third, the energy demand of building materials industry is mainly affected by economic growth. The improvement of energy prices, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of the per-capita productivity are both conducive to the reduction of energy demand for building materials. Fourth, the level of economic development is the main driving force of the growth of power consumption in the building materials industry, and the per-capita added value of the industry, the development intensity of the industry and the electric power price are the main factors that push the power consumption of the industry to drop. Fifth, technological progress, labor productivity, power price and industry intensity are conducive to the decline of the power strength of the building materials industry. By 2020, the power intensity of China's building materials industry will be significantly reduced, and even the current level of Japanese building materials industry can be achieved. a more active energy-saving policy is beneficial to reducing the power intensity of the industry and achieving greater power-saving potential. Sixth, the effect of industrial activity is the leading factor of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry, and the energy intensity effect is the main contribution to the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry. inter-fuel substitution is beneficial to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. Energy conservation should be the main strategy to reduce the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions in the industry.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;X322
，
本文编号：2316495
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