大事件植入对人口高输出地区小城镇规划不确定性影响研究

发布时间：2019-05-12 17:55

【摘要】：当前中国镇级单元数量和总人口规模巨大,在新型城镇化中具有不可替代的战略意义,经济增长放缓背景下,超大和特大城市面临着巨大的规模扩张和人口转移压力,小城镇则成为新常态下经济社会发展的新亮点和载体。在人口高输出地区,大事件的植入打破了传统小城镇的经济和社会组织体系,城乡规划不确定性将更为突出,对小城镇规划不确定性的研究迫在眉睫。以鲁西北人口高输出地区的小城镇为实证性研究对象,提出大事件的植入对该小城镇发展和规划产生很大的不确定性,在研究现状和大事件植入基础上,运用规划中的不确定性理论,引入"产镇融合"、层级化"弹性管理单元"和底线控制思维方法,探索在城乡规划层面应对小城镇未来发展不确定性的规划策略。
[Abstract]:At present, the number of town-level units and the total population in China are huge, which is of irreplaceable strategic significance in the new urbanization. Under the background of slowing economic growth, mega-and mega-cities are facing huge pressure of scale expansion and population transfer. Small towns have become a new bright spot and carrier of economic and social development under the new normal. In the areas with high population output, the implantation of large events has broken the economic and social organization system of traditional small towns, and the uncertainty of urban and rural planning will be more prominent. Therefore, the research on the uncertainty of planning of small towns is urgent. Taking the small towns in the high output area of northwest Shandong as the empirical research object, this paper puts forward that the implantation of large events has great uncertainty on the development and planning of the small towns, on the basis of the present situation of the research and the implantation of major events. Based on the uncertainty theory in planning, this paper introduces "production and town integration", hierarchical "elastic management unit" and bottom line control thinking method, and explores the planning strategy to deal with the uncertainty of the future development of small towns at the level of urban and rural planning.
【作者单位】：清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;北京清华同衡规划设计研究院有限公司城乡住房与社区研究中心;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题“县、镇(乡)及村域规划编制关键技术研究与示范”(2014BAL04B01)
【分类号】：TU984.1

【参考文献】