基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例

发布时间：2018-04-02 10:40

本文选题：旱灾风险评估　切入点：区间估计　出处：《灾害学》2015年01期

【摘要】：旱灾风险管理是抗旱减灾的科学手段、干旱及旱灾研究的重要方向,定量评估旱灾风险是旱灾风险管理的核心内容。为降低各种不确定性因素影响下旱灾风险评估结果的误差,提高结果的可靠性,提出运用信息扩散法估计旱灾损失的超越概率,结合自助法的区间估计算法,建立基于信息扩散与自助法的灾害风险评估模型,用不同置信水平下旱灾损失对应超越概率的置信区间来反映旱灾风险。将该模型运用于安徽省农业易旱地区干旱灾害风险评估,计算并确定在置信水平为0.75时安徽省易旱地区的旱灾风险区间评估结果合理、可靠,可为抗旱规划提供科学的决策依据。
[Abstract]:Drought risk management is the scientific means of drought and disaster reduction, and drought and drought research is an important direction. Quantitative assessment of drought risk is the core content of drought risk management. In order to improve the reliability of the results, a disaster risk assessment model based on information diffusion and self-help method is established by using the information diffusion method to estimate the exceeding probability of drought loss and the interval estimation algorithm of the self-help method. The drought risk is reflected by the confidence interval of the corresponding exceeding probability of drought loss under different confidence levels, and the model is applied to the assessment of drought disaster risk in agricultural drought-prone areas of Anhui Province. When the confidence level is 0.75, the evaluation results of drought risk interval in drought-prone areas of Anhui Province are reasonable and reliable, which can provide scientific decision basis for drought-resistant planning.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院;合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所;水利部水利水电规划设计总院;衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71273081;41171075;51109052) 水利部重大基建前期项目“全国干旱区划及旱灾风险评估研究” 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001043) 中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题(LPM2011002)
【分类号】：P426.616

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