典型沿海城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 06:21

本文选题：沿海城市 + 上海　；参考：《华东师范大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖与海平面上升的背景下,随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市人口与财富不断积聚,各种建筑设施更加密集,城市系统自然灾害暴露性与脆弱性程度加大,其面临的自然灾害风险形势更加严峻。地处长江河口三角洲的上海市在我国社会经济发展建设中起着引领与示范作用,同时也与我国其他沿海城市一样近年来饱受暴雨内涝灾害困扰。本论文在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析”(编号：40730526)和华东师范大学博士研究生学术新人奖项目(编号:XRZZ2010024)的资助下,综合考虑城市系统不同类型承灾体特征,构建城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的理论方法与流程范式,并以上海市为例开展实证研究。主要取得了以下研究成果： (1)在系统分析城市系统构成的基础上,对城市洪涝灾害类型、系统构成与特征进行了深入分析；基于对城市洪涝灾害风险概念的理解,系统梳理了城市洪涝灾害风险系统构成与特征,并针对城市具有不同特征的承灾体类型,分别提出了基于情景模拟分析的地上建筑暴雨内涝灾害风险评估方法与流程以及基于情景模拟分析的地下空间暴雨内涝灾害风险评估方法与流程。 (2)宏观上,上海市洪灾发生率较高,发生不均匀,洪灾次数随时间推移呈不断增加趋势。上海市洪灾类型以内涝型为主,并且在新中国成立后表现更为突出；上海市内涝型洪灾和风暴潮型洪灾次数均随着时间变化呈较明显的上升趋势,并且内涝型洪灾次数曲线与洪灾总次数曲线走势最接近。 (3)微观上,251-2000年间,除崇明县外,上海市其余各区洪灾类型均以内涝型为主；1949-2000年间上海市各区县洪灾类型均以内涝型为主。虽然各区县在不同时段表现的特征有所差异,但总体上均表现出洪灾发生不均匀的特征。此外,除闵行区洪灾次数曲线呈倒“U”型分布外,其余各区县洪灾次数均随时间的不断推移呈逐渐上升趋势。 (4)从长时间尺度(251-2000年)上看,青浦区、浦东新区、闵行区、嘉定区、宝山区、松江区和奉贤区应该特别注意漫溢型洪灾的防治工作,金山区漫溢型洪灾风险处于中等水平,市区和崇明县漫溢型洪灾风险相对较小；浦东新区内涝型洪灾风险较高,闵行区、宝山区和青浦区内涝型洪灾风险处于中等水平,内涝型洪灾对嘉定区、市区、松江区、奉贤区、金山区和崇明县的影响相对较小；浦东新区风暴潮型洪灾风险最高,宝山区、闵行区和崇明县风暴潮型洪灾风险处于中等水平,风暴潮型洪灾对嘉定区、青浦区、松江区、市区、奉贤区和金山区影响较小；整体上,浦东新区和闵行区洪灾综合风险较高,宝山区、青浦区、嘉定区和松江区洪灾综合风险处于中等水平,奉贤区、金山区、市区和崇明县洪灾综合风险相对较小。 (5)从短时间尺度(1949-2000年)上看,青浦区漫溢型洪灾风险最大,松江区、金山区、嘉定区、宝山区和崇明县漫溢型洪灾风险处于中等水平,奉贤区、浦东新区、闵行区和市区漫溢型洪灾风险最小；市区内涝型洪灾风险最大,其余各区县内涝型洪灾风险均较小；市区、浦东新区、宝山区风暴潮型洪灾风险处于相对较高的水平,松江区、金山区、奉贤区、闵行区和崇明县处于中等水平,风暴潮型洪灾对青浦区和嘉定区影响最小；整体上,市区、青浦区和宝山区洪灾综合风险相对较高,浦东新区、松江区、金山区处于中等水平,崇明县、嘉定区、奉贤区和闵行区则相对较小。市区应作为上海洪灾风险管理优先处置的对象。 (6)以上海浦东新区为例对典型孕灾环境变化过程——土地利用/覆被变化对城市内涝灾害的影响进行实证研究发现,城市土地利用/覆被变化导致径流深度趋于增大,但在城市化不同时期土地利用/覆被变化对地表径流的影响呈现不同的特征。1994-2000年,地表径流深度大幅度增加；2000-2003年,地表径流深度虽然仍继续增加,但增幅很小；2003-2006年,地表径流深度继续保持增加的趋势,并且增幅比2000-2003年有所回升。随着城市化水平的不断提高,土地利用类型与结构的巨大变化不仅对城市暴雨内涝灾害的孕灾环境产生较大影响,还对致灾因子发生概率与强度以及承灾体的类型与结构产生一定影响。土地利用覆被变化带来的上述影响将导致城市暴雨内涝成灾的可能性大大增加。 (7)根据城市系统独特的下垫面特征,充分考虑地表建筑对降雨径流的影响以及泵站排水为城市唯一的排水途径等特殊情况,构建了集城市地形模型、城市降雨径流模型、地形影响修正模型和GIS空间分析模块为一体的高精度综合模型——简化城市暴雨内涝模型,该模型具有计算简单、模拟耗时短的特点。 (8)对中心城区地铁系统暴雨内涝灾害风险情景分析结果显示,上海市中心城区地铁暴雨内涝风险整体水平不高。存在潜在风险的地铁出口数为40个,仅占总数的11.6%。上海西站1号口和娄山关路3号口内涝风险水平较高,处于中等风险水平的地铁出口有18个,有20个地铁出口属于低风险出口。整体上,2号线和11号线内涝风险最高,需要引起灾害管理部门的重视；4号线、8号线和10号线处于中等内涝风险水平；1号线、7号线和9号线内涝风险最低。 (9)上海中心城区暴雨内涝灾害危险性情景分析结果表明,上海市中心城区由不同概率的降水所导致的区域内涝危险性空间差异显著。不同概率的降水导致的区域内涝危险性不同,降雨强度越大,形成的内涝积水越深,区域内涝危险性也就越大；相同概率的降水引发的内涝危险性在不同区域亦不同,总体上,杨浦区、长宁区和虹口区内涝危险性最高；徐汇区、普陀区和闸北区内涝危险性处于中等水平；静安区、黄浦区和卢湾区内涝危险性最低。 (10)中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害暴露性分析结果表明,在不同情境下,中心城区各区住宅在暴雨内涝中的暴露性大小存在一定的空间差异性。总体看来,区域住宅暴露性程度随着降雨强度的增大而增大；杨浦区、普陀区和徐汇区是暴雨内涝对区域住宅影响最严重的区域；影响中等的区域是长宁区、闸北区和虹口区；暴雨内涝对区域住宅影响较小的区域为黄浦区、静安区和卢湾区。此外,在不同情境下,上海市中心城区最易发生室内进水的住宅类型为旧式住宅与仓库。 (11)中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性分析结果显示：旧式住宅是建筑结构最易受损的住宅类型,其次是新式住宅,别墅式住宅建筑结构最不易受到内涝灾害的影响；整体上,随着降雨强度的增大,区域住宅灾损程度与室内财产受损程度也逐渐增大,受损住宅类型逐渐增多；暴雨内涝对区域住宅建筑结构影响最严重的区域为杨浦区、普陀区和徐汇区,影响中等的区域为长宁区、闸北区和虹口区,影响较小的区域为黄浦区、静安区和卢湾区；暴雨内涝对区域住宅室内财产影响最严重的区域为杨浦区和长宁区,影响中等的区域是普陀区、徐汇区、虹口区和闸北区,影响较小的区域为黄浦区、静安区和卢湾区；住宅室内地板与墙壁是最易受内涝灾害影响的居民财产类型。 (12)中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害风险分析评估结果显示：中心城区住宅风险空间差异显著；随着降水强度的不断增大,暴雨内涝灾害给中心城区住宅造成的经济损失也从无到有,逐渐增大；上海市中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害年均损失约为22254166元,中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害风险大小排序为：杨浦区普陀区长宁区虹口区徐汇区闸北区静安区卢湾区黄浦区；由于全球气候变化与人类活动的影响,上海市降水强度与频率均可能发生变化,从而导致中心城区住宅暴雨内涝灾害风险(损失)处于一个动态的变化过程之中。 (13)初步建立了上海市中心城区住宅灾损-暴雨年超越概率曲线与数学公式以及不同类型住宅灾损-暴雨年超越概率曲线与数学公式,并基于对各区不同情景下的住宅灾损状况,建立了中心城区9个行政区的住宅灾损-暴雨年超越概率曲线库与数学公式集。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming and rising sea level, with the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization, urban population and wealth are constantly accumulating, all kinds of building facilities are denser, the natural disaster exposure and vulnerability of urban system increase, and the risk of natural disasters is more severe. It is located in Shanghai of the Yangtze River Estuary Delta. The city has played a leading role in the development and construction of our country's social and economic development, and it has been plagued by rainstorm waterlogging in recent years in other coastal cities of China. This paper is a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, "analysis of the emergency scenario of natural disaster risk in coastal cities" (numbered: 40730526) and East China Normal University Under the support of the doctoral graduate student award project (number: XRZZ2010024), the theoretical method and process paradigm of urban rainstorm disaster risk assessment are constructed by considering the characteristics of different types of disaster bearing bodies in the urban system, and the empirical study is carried out in Shanghai as an example. The following results are taken as follows:
(1) on the basis of systematic analysis of the composition of urban system, the types of urban flood and waterlogging disasters, the system composition and characteristics are deeply analyzed. Based on the understanding of the concept of urban flood and waterlogging hazard risk, the Constitution and characteristics of the urban flood disaster risk system are systematically combed, and the types of disaster bearing bodies with different characteristics in the city are put forward respectively. On the basis of scenario simulation analysis, the risk assessment method and process of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the ground building and the method and process of the risk assessment of the rainstorm in the underground space based on the scenario simulation analysis.
(2) on the macro level, the flood disaster rate in Shanghai is high and uneven, and the number of flood disasters is increasing with time. The flood type in Shanghai is the main type, and it is more prominent in the new China after the founding of new China. The flood disaster and storm tide type flood times in Shanghai all show a obvious rising trend with the time change. Moreover, the waterlogging frequency curve is the closest to the total flood curve.
(3) on the microcosmic, in 251-2000 years, in addition to Chongming County, the flood types of the other areas in the rest of the city of Shanghai were mainly waterlogging, and the flood types in all districts and counties of Shanghai in 1949-2000 years were the main types of flood. Although the characteristics of each district and County were different in different periods of time, the characteristics of the unevenness of flood disasters were all shown. In addition, Minhang was in addition to Minhang. The flood disaster frequency curve shows an inverted "U" distribution, and the flood frequency of other counties increases gradually with time.
(4) from a long time scale (251-2000 years), Qingpu, Pudong New Area, Minhang District, Jiading District, Baoshan District, Songjiang District and Fengxian District should pay special attention to the prevention and control of Flood flood, the risk of Flood flood in Jinshan District is in the middle level, the flood risk of overflow type in urban and Chongming county is relatively small; the flood type flood wind in Pudong New Area is relatively small. The risk of flood type flood in Minhang District, Baoshan District and Qingpu is middle level, and the impact of waterlogging flood is relatively small on Jiading District, urban, Songjiang District, Fengxian District, Jinshan District and Chongming County, Pudong New Area storm tide flood risk is the highest, Baoshan District, Minhang District and Chongming County storm tide type flood risk is at the middle level. The impact of storm tide floods on Jiading District, Qingpu, Songjiang District, downtown, Fengxian District and Jinshan District is smaller. On the whole, the comprehensive risk of the floods in Pudong New Area and Minhang District is high, and the comprehensive risk of the floods in Baoshan District, Qingpu, Jiading District and Songjiang District is in the middle level, and the comprehensive risk of flood in Fengxian District, Jinshan District, downtown and county is relatively small.
(5) from a short time scale (1949-2000 years), the flood risk of flood in Qingpu district is the largest, the flood risk of flood in Songjiang District, Jinshan District, Jiading District, Baoshan District and Chongming county is at the middle level, Fengxian District, Pudong New Area, Minhang District and urban overflow flood risk is the smallest, the flood risk of urban waterlogging type is the largest, and the other districts and counties are waterlogging The risk of flood is relatively small; urban, Pudong New Area, Baoshan District storm flood risk is relatively high, Songjiang District, Jinshan District, Fengxian District, Minhang District and Chongming are at the middle level, and the storm tide floods have minimal impact on Qingpu and Jiading District; on the whole, the overall risk of flood disaster in urban, Qingpu and Baoshan District is relatively higher. High, Pudong New Area, Songjiang District, Jinshan District are in the middle level, Chongming County, Jiading District, Fengxian District and Minhang District are relatively small. The urban area should be the priority for the management of the risk management of the flood disaster in Shanghai.
(6) taking Pudong New Area, Shanghai as an example, the empirical study on the influence of land use / Cover Change on the urban waterlogging disaster of typical environmental changes of pregnancy found that the urban land use / cover change leads to the increase of the runoff depth, but the effect of land use / Cover Change on the surface runoff in different periods of urbanization is different. In the year of.1994-2000, the surface runoff depth increased greatly; in the 2000-2003 year, the surface runoff depth continued to increase, but the increase was very small. In the 2003-2006 year, the surface runoff depth continued to increase, and the increase was higher than that of the 2000-2003 years. With the continuous improvement of the urbanization level, the type and structure of land use and structure were huge. The large change not only has a great influence on the environment of the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster, but also has a certain influence on the probability and intensity of the occurrence of disaster factors and the type and structure of the disaster bearing body. The above effects brought by the change of land use cover will greatly increase the availability of the urban rainstorm flood disaster.
(7) according to the unique characteristics of the underlying surface of the urban system, the effect of the surface buildings on the rainfall runoff and the only drainage way of the pumping station for the city are taken into full consideration, and a high precision comprehensive model of the urban terrain model, the urban rainfall runoff model, the Terrain Influence correction model and the GIS spatial analysis module is constructed. Simplified urban rainstorm waterlogging model, which has the characteristics of simple calculation and short simulation time.
(8) the analysis of the risk scenario of rainstorm waterlogging in subway system in central urban area shows that the overall risk of rainstorm waterlogging risk is not high in downtown Shanghai. The number of subway exports with potential risks is 40, which accounts for the high risk level of waterlogging in No. 1 and Lou Shan Guan Road, 11.6%. of Shanghai West Railway Station, which is at the middle risk level. There are 18 subway exports, and 20 subway exports are low risk exports. On the whole, the highest risk of waterlogging in line 2 and line 11 needs to be paid attention to by the disaster management department; line 4, line 8 and line 10 are at the risk level of moderate waterlogging; the risk of waterlogging in the 1 line, the 7 line and the 9 line is the lowest.
(9) the analysis of the dangerous situation of rainstorm waterlogging hazard in the central city of Shanghai shows that the regional waterlogging hazard caused by different probability of precipitation in the central city of Shanghai is significant. The rainfall caused by different probability of precipitation is different, the greater the rainfall intensity is, the deeper the water logging water is, the danger of waterlogging in the region is also. The greater the risk of waterlogging caused by the same probability of precipitation in different regions, in general, Yangpu District, Changning District and Hongkou District have the highest risk of waterlogging; Xuhui District, Putuo District and Zhabei District are at a moderate risk of waterlogging; Jingan District, Huangpu District and Luwan District have the lowest waterlogging risk.
(10) the exposure analysis of the rainstorm waterlogging in the urban residential area shows that there is a certain spatial difference in the exposure size of the residential housing in the rainstorm waterlogging in different areas in different situations. In general, the exposure degree of the residential area increases with the increase of rainfall intensity; Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District are rainstorms. Water logging has the most serious impact on regional housing; the middle areas are Changning District, Zhabei District and Hongkou District, and the areas with small impact on regional housing are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District. In addition, in different situations, the most accessible residential type of indoor water in the downtown of Shanghai is the old type of residential and warehouse.
(11) the result of the vulnerability analysis of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the urban residential area shows that the old housing is the most vulnerable residential type of the building structure, the next is the new type house, the villa type residential building structure is the most difficult to be affected by the waterlogging disaster; on the whole, with the increase of rainfall intensity, the degree of regional housing disaster and the damage process of the indoor property The type of damaged housing is increasing gradually, and the most serious areas affecting the residential building structure in the region are Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District, and the middle areas are Changning District, Zhabei District and Hongkou District, the smaller areas are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District, and the rainstorm waterlogging to the residential indoor room. The most seriously affected areas are Yangpu District and Changning District, and the middle areas are Putuo District, Xuhui District, Hongkou District and Zhabei District, and the smaller areas are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District; residential indoor floors and walls are the most vulnerable to residents' property types.
(12) the risk analysis and evaluation of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the central urban area shows that the residential risk space of the central urban area has a significant difference. With the increase of the rainfall intensity, the economic loss caused by the rainstorm waterlogging to the residential buildings in the central urban area is gradually increasing, and the annual average loss of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the downtown of Shanghai city is average. The loss is 22254166 yuan, and the risk of rainstorm waterlogging in the central urban area is ranked as: Putuo District, Changning District, Hongkou District, Xuhui District, Zhabei District Jingan District and Luwan District Huangpu District. Due to the global climate change and human activities, the precipitation intensity and frequency of Shanghai can be changed, resulting in the urban residential storm in the central city. The risk (loss) of rain waterlogging is in a dynamic process.
(13) a preliminary establishment of a flood storm year transcendental probability curve and mathematical formula as well as a mathematical formula for the annual surpassing probability of different types of residential damage in Shanghai city centre urban area, and based on the situation of the residential disaster under different scenarios in various districts, the residential disaster of the 9 administrative areas in the central urban area - the surpassing probability curve of the rainstorm year is set up. The line library and the set of mathematical formulas.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：P426.616

【引证文献】