人民币汇率变动对中国经济增长的影响

发布时间：2017-12-27 17:43

本文关键词：人民币汇率变动对中国经济增长的影响　出处：《南京财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,中国经济取得了快速的发展,2010年中国超越日本成为世界第二大经济体,2013年中国超过美国,成为世界第一大货物贸易国。中国与世界的经济联系更加密切,而汇率在连接中国经济和世界经济中起着纽带的作用。自2005年人民币汇率改革以来,人民币对美元一直保持着持续小幅升值的状态,至2014年6月30日,人民币对美元汇率累计升值达到34.52%,并且人民币对美元单日波动幅度有扩大的趋势。随着人民币升值,研究汇率的经济效应更为迫切。人民币汇率变动会对中国经济造成怎样的影响?以及人民币汇率变动会对中国的进出口贸易和外商直接投资有何影响?本文首先对经济增长和汇率的概念进行了界定,接着从理论方面研究了人民币实际汇率对进中国出口贸易和外商直接投资的传导机制,并且分别分析了中国宏观经济现状：包括国内生产总值、进出口贸易和外商直接投资,并从图形上直观分析了人民币实际有效汇率波动率对中国国内生产总值、进出口贸易和外商直接投资的影响。然后,本文运用1994年第1季度到2014年第2季度数据分别实证研究了汇率与国内生产总值、进出口贸易总额、外商直接投资的关系。在研究人民币实际有效汇率变动与国内生产总值关系时,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法,研究发现：人民币实际有效汇率升值1%,中国经济增长率就会下降0.059%,人民币实际有效汇率是中国国内生产总值的格兰杰原因。再分别研究汇率影响经济增长的影响机制：进出口贸易和外商直接投资。建立了出口贸易总值、人民币实际有效汇率和中国主要贸易伙伴国内生产总值三个变量之间的长期协整关系,结果表明：人民币实际有效升值1%,出口总额就会减少1.3587%。建立的进口贸易总额、人民币实际有效汇率和中国国内生产总值三个变量之间的长期协整关系,结果表明：人民币实际有效升值1%,进口总额就会减少1.5264%。人民币实际有效汇率升值对中国进出口贸易均产生反方向的影响,通过脉冲响应分析可以看出,汇率的波动会对进口和出口产生长期不利的影响。通过汇率对外商直接投资的研究表明：人民币实际有效汇率和外商直接投资长期不存在稳定均衡的关系,短期来看,人民币实际有效汇率对外商直接投资产生一定的影响。最后提出了一些如避免短期内人民币汇率的剧烈波动的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made rapid progress. In 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. In 2013, China surpassed the US and became the world's largest cargo trading country. China's economic ties with the world are closer, and the exchange rate plays a link in connecting China's economy and the world economy. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate in 2005, the RMB has maintained a slight appreciation against the US dollar. By June 30, 2014, the total appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has reached 34.52%, and the fluctuation of RMB to us dollar has expanded trend. With the appreciation of the RMB, it is more urgent to study the economic effect of the exchange rate. The change of RMB exchange rate will influence on China economy? And the RMB exchange rate changes on Chinese import and export trade and foreign direct investment impact? Firstly, the definition of economic growth and the exchange rate is defined, then from the theoretical research on the conduction mechanism of RMB real exchange rate on export trade and foreign direct Chinese the investment, and analyzes the current situation of China macro economy: including GDP, import and export trade and foreign direct investment, and from the graph directly analyzed the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility impact on Chinese GDP, import and export trade and foreign direct investment. Then, based on the data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2014, this paper empirically studies the relationship between exchange rate and gross domestic product, total volume of import and export, and foreign direct investment. In the study of relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and GDP, using cointegration test and Grainger causality test and other methods, the study found that: the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of 1%, Chinese economic growth rate will drop 0.059%, the RMB real effective exchange rate is the reason Grainger Chinese gdp. The influence mechanism of exchange rate on economic growth is studied separately: import and export trade and foreign direct investment. The long-term cointegration relationship between the total value of export trade, the effective exchange rate of RMB and the three variables of China's main trading partners GDP is established. The results show that the effective appreciation of RMB is 1%, and the total export volume will be reduced by 1.3587%. The long term cointegration relationship between the total import volume, the effective exchange rate of RMB and the three variables of China's gross domestic product has been established. The results show that the effective appreciation of RMB is 1% and the total import volume will be reduced by 1.5264%. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has an opposite direction to China's import and export trade. By impulse response analysis, we can see that the fluctuation of exchange rate will have a long-term adverse effect on import and export. The study of foreign direct investment through exchange rate shows that there is no stable equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the long run. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a certain impact on foreign direct investment. Finally, some policy suggestions, such as avoiding the violent fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in the short term, are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

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