人民币升值对贸易收支的影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:08

本文关键词：人民币升值对贸易收支的影响研究　出处：《南京大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国政府于2005年7月21日宣布实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,形成了更富弹性的人民币汇率机制,迈上了人民币兑美元主动升值之路,预示着25年持续贬值发生方向上的重大转变。截止2011年12月,人民币兑美元持续升值幅度达到30.8%,人民币实际有效汇率上升28.1%,名义有效汇率上升19.0%。2000年以来中国贸易收支的显著特征是大型持久贸易顺差持续10年之久：2002年以后经常项目盈余/GDP开始持续攀升,2005年以后的7年内年均值达到6.70%,最高值为2007年的10.13%,在国际金融危机中经历了盈余反转,但仍然高居不下,这在大国经济中是鲜见的。本文将人民币大幅升值并未有效纠正贸易失衡的现象称为人民币汇率“调节困境”,并以此为问题导向,系统评估2005年汇改以来人民币升值对中国贸易收支的影响,定性和定量研究人民币升值对贸易收支的调节机制和调节效应。在此基础上,通过国际经验尤其是日本经验的比较,揭示中国经验的一般性和特殊性,并启示政策建议。这不仅有助于深入理解汇率作为价格工具的调节作用,也便于理解中国贸易失衡的性质、结构和症结,将为中央银行评估汇率政策效果和制订未来政策方向提供依据。从理论层面看,汇率对贸易收支的影响分为逻辑链条上的两个问题：一是汇率对进出口价格的影响；二是相对价格变动对总供求的影响(Dornbusch,1996)。马歇尔一勒纳条件的一般形式是将两个环节统一起来回答主旨问题的理论和实证框架。为此,本文主要研究以下三个问题：人民币汇率对进出口价格的传递效应、贸易弹性以及人民币升值对贸易收支的影响。主要论述结构和过程如下：在国际收支调节和汇率调节贸易收支的文献综述基础上,本文首先从总体和分行业两个层面考察了2005年汇改以来人民币升值对进口价格的传递效应。构建分布滞后的时间序列模型,运用OLS方法估计短期和长期的进口价格ERPT系数,并研究进口价格的影响因素。研究表明,中国进口价格的ERPT系数长期接近完全传递,存在时滞效应,行业差异较为显著。进口计价货币以美元为主和进口替代能力较弱决定了进口价格ERPT系数较高的现状。国外资源品和生产成本的大幅上涨是推动进口价格上涨的主要因素,名义汇率的影响程度较弱。第四章从总体、行业和时间段三个层面研究了2005年汇改以来人民币升值对出口价格的传递效应。在总体层面上,构建分布滞后的时间序列模型,运用OLS方法估计出口价格的长期ERPT系数,分为基准模型和备择模型。在分行业层面上,运用面板数据模型,分为短期弹性的面板模型和长期弹性(含滞后项)的面板模型,研究出口价格的影响因素。研究表明,中国出口价格的汇率传递长期接近零传递,存在时滞效应。出口厂商具有一定的PTM定价能力,行业差异较为显著。规模经济、汇率与工资长期低估、贸易方式与市场份额从供给上决定了出口价格的ERPT系数较低。出口厂商的生产成本是出口价格的决定因素,名义汇率的影响程度较弱。实际汇率上升的承受力因出口行业而异,杂项制品类商品的出口厂商成本消化压力最大。以上两章研究了汇率影响贸易收支的第一步——汇率传递效应,第五章着手研究第二步——贸易弹性。根据标准贸易模型,运用OLS方法计量收入弹性和价格弹性,从总体、行业和时间段层面比较研究,揭示中国贸易弹性的特征。研究表明,中国进出口的价格弹性和收入弹性落在发达国家的价格弹性和收入弹性的区间内,但进口的价格弹性不稳定,甚至出现了正值。中国贸易收支的调整主要来自于国内外收入,存在总量偏见：进口收入弹性的行业平均值高于总体,出口价格弹性的行业平均值高于总体。人民币实际有效汇率上升并未有效改善贸易条件。在第三、四、五章的实证结果(进口价格ERPT系数、出口价格PTM系数和进出口价格弹性)基础上,第五章接着拓展马歇尔—勒纳条件的标准形式,逐一打开假定,提出了三个命题逐一证明,从理论上推导其一般形式,并进行实证研究。研究表明,2005年汇改以来人民币升值对贸易收支的影响表现在四个方面：一是汇率调节的有效性。人民币升值对于总体和原材料、机械设备与运输及杂项制品三个行业贸易顺差的调节方向基本正常——逆向调节,表明人民币汇率调节的有效性存在。二是汇率调节的弹性。人民币名义有效汇率上升1%,美元计价的贸易顺差下降0.13%,印证了“弹性悲观论”。但行业差异明显,存在总量偏见,即分行业的“弹性乐观论”和加总的“弹性悲观论”。三是汇率调节的难易顺序。在初始状态为贸易顺差时,人民币升值对机械设备与运输、原材料、总体以及杂项制品的调节能力依次降低。四是汇率不是调节贸易失衡的主渠道。人民币升值对贸易失衡的调节方向与其实际调节并不一致,且远远低于实际变动幅度。这说明人民币升值的调节效应处于初期,收入效应和反向替代效应抵消了货币升值的逆向调节,主导了2005年以来贸易顺差的加速积累。从重要性角度看,进出口价格弹性、初始状态的贸易平衡度和汇率传递率是依次决定人民币汇率调节效应的因素。在此基础上,本文概述了人民币升值对贸易收支的调节机制。围绕如何改善贸易失衡的调节效能,本文从贸易失衡的调节和汇率调节贸易顺差两个方面归纳总结国际经验,以有过大幅升值经历的亚洲国家——日本为例,从宏观和中观层面比较研究货币升值对贸易顺差的调节效应。最终提出政策建议：抓住汇率政策的着力点,推进汇率形成机制改革；建立适应汇率调节机制的贸易部门监测体系,实时跟踪实际汇率的调节效应；重新审视出口导向型政策,着力从供给层面提升贸易品价格弹性；发挥汇率约束机制的能动作用,促进结构改革和“二次创业”。
[Abstract]:In July 21, 2005 the government announced the implementation of China based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system, formed a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism, to the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar initiative Road, 25 years indicates a significant shift in the direction of the continued depreciation of the RMB. By the end of December 2011. The dollar continued appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate reached 30.8%, up 28.1% since the nominal effective exchange rate rise 19.0%.2000 China trade balance is characteristic of large persistent trade surplus continued for 10 years after 2002 /GDP began rising current-account surplus, since 2005 7 years the average reached 6.70%, the highest value in 2007 10.13%, in the international financial crisis experienced a surplus reversal, but still high, this is rare in the country economy. This article will The sharp appreciation of the RMB is not effective to correct the trade imbalance phenomenon is called "the RMB exchange rate adjustment dilemma", and as a problem oriented evaluation system, the exchange rate reform since 2005, the impact of RMB appreciation on the trade balance China, qualitative and quantitative analysis of RMB appreciation on the trade balance adjustment mechanism and regulation effect. On this basis, especially through the international experience is the Japanese experience, general and special China reveal the experience, and implications of policy recommendations. This not only helps to deeply understand the exchange rate as the price adjustment tool, easy to understand the nature of China trade imbalances, the structure and the crux of the problem, the central bank will assess the effect of the exchange rate policy and provide basis for making future policy direction from the theoretical perspective, the impact of exchange rate on trade balance is divided into two logical chain: one is the exchange rate on the import and export price. Ring; two is the relative price changes on the total supply and demand (Dornbusch, 1996). The general form of the Marshall Lerner condition is two aspects of unified answer theme question theoretical and empirical framework. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the following three questions: the RMB exchange rate pass through effect on import and export prices, trade elasticity and the impact of RMB appreciation on the trade balance. Mainly discusses the structure and process are as follows: the basis of regulating the trade balance in the international balance of payments and exchange rate review, this paper is divided into two levels and industry effects of the exchange rate reform since 2005 RMB appreciation effect on import prices. To construct the time series model with distributed lag. OLS method to estimate the short-term and long-term import price coefficient of ERPT, and to study the factors affecting the price of imports. The research results show that the ERPT coefficient of price Chinese imported long To complete delivery, time lag, industry difference is significant. The dollar denominated imports and import substitution ability determines the status of the import price of ERPT coefficient is higher. The foreign resources products and production costs rose sharply is the main factors to promote the import prices, the nominal exchange rate is weak influence. In the fourth chapter overall, three levels of industry and time of the exchange rate reform since 2005, RMB appreciation on the export price transfer effect. In the overall level, the construction model of time series distribution lag, OLS method is used to estimate the long-term ERPT coefficient of the export price, divided into the benchmark model and the alternative model. At the industry level, the use of the panel data model, divided into short-term and long-term elastic panel model (including the elastic lag back) panel model to study the factors that influence the export price. The study shows that in China's export The price of the exchange rate pass through long-term zero transfer, there was a time lag. The export manufacturers have a PTM pricing ability, industry difference is significant. The economies of scale, long-term wage and exchange rate undervalued, trade and market share from the supply of ERPT is determined by the coefficient of the export price is low. The export production cost is the decisive factor in the export price the nominal exchange rate is weak influence. The real exchange rate rising affordability as the export sector varies, miscellaneous products goods export cost digestion biggest pressure. The two chapter studies the influence of the exchange rate over the first step -- a trade exchange rate pass through effect, the fifth chapter of the second step, trade elasticity. According to the standard trade model using OLS method, measuring income elasticity and price elasticity, in general, a comparative study of industry and time level, reveal the characteristics of Chinese trade elasticity. Show that the interval China import and export price and income elasticity in developed countries the price elasticity and income elasticity within, but the price elasticity of imports is not stable, even when Chinese. Trade balance adjustment mainly comes from the domestic and foreign income, total income elasticity of import bias: the industry average is higher than the whole. The price elasticity of export value is higher than the industry average. The overall appreciation of the real effective exchange rate did not improve the terms of trade. In third, fourth, the results of the five chapter (the import price of ERPT coefficient, PTM coefficient and the export price of import and export price elasticity) based on the standard form of the fifth chapter and then expand the Marshall Lerner condition, one by one to open the assumption. Put forward three propositions one by one that derives its general form, and conduct empirical research. The results show that the exchange rate reform since 2005, RMB appreciation on the trade Easy payments affect performance in four aspects: one is the effectiveness of exchange rate adjustment. RMB appreciation for the overall and raw materials, adjust the direction of mechanical equipment and transportation and miscellaneous products three industry trade surplus normal -- reverse regulation, indicate the existence of Effective RMB exchange rate adjustment is two. The RMB exchange rate adjustment flexibility. The nominal effective exchange rate rose 1% dollar denominated trade surplus fell 0.13%, confirms the "elastic pessimism". But the industry differences, total bias, namely industry "elastic optimistic theory" and "total elastic pessimism". The three is the exchange rate adjustment difficult. In order for the initial state trade surplus, RMB appreciation on machinery and transportation, raw materials, and the overall adjustment ability of miscellaneous products decreased. Four is the main channel of exchange rate is not to adjust the trade imbalance of RMB appreciation on. Adjust the direction of the trade imbalance is not consistent with the actual regulation, and far lower than the actual magnitude of changes. The regulating effect of RMB appreciation in the early stage, the income effect and substitution effect of reverse offset reverse regulation of currency appreciation, leading the trade surplus since 2005 accelerated accumulation. From the point of view, import and export price elasticity, initial state the trade balance and exchange rate pass rate is in turn determines factors of RMB exchange rate adjustment effect. On this basis, this paper summarizes the regulation mechanism of RMB appreciation on the trade balance. On how to improve the regulation efficiency of trade imbalance, the imbalance of trade adjustment and exchange rate adjustment in two aspects of trade surplus summarizes international experience, to have the Asian countries experienced a sharp appreciation of Japan as an example, from the macro and meso level comparison of currency appreciation on trade surplus The regulating effect. Finally put forward some policy recommendations: seize the focus of exchange rate policy, promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism; to establish trade department monitoring system of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, adjust the effect of real-time tracking of the real exchange rate; re-examine the export-oriented policy, efforts to enhance the level of trade goods from the supply price elasticity functions; exchange rate mechanism the promotion of structural reform and two entrepreneurs.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.6;F832.6

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