中国的货币政策与汇率政策均应及时调整

发布时间：2017-12-31 16:31

  本文关键词：中国的货币政策与汇率政策均应及时调整　出处：《国际经济评论》2010年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 总需求 通胀 利率 房价 汇率

【摘要】：2010年第1季度中国总需求已经出现过热迹象,但全年增长形势仍具不确定性,关键在于房地产投资与净出口增速如何变动。综合食品价格、输入型通胀压力以及基期效应的分析,CPI同比增速在7、8月份可能超过4%,从而提高3季度加息的概率。从流动性、供求缺口与通胀预期来看,2季度房价仍有上涨压力,下半年房价走势不确定。4月份新出台的政府调控措施短期内将导致量价齐跌,但如果低利率与宽信贷的格局不改变,房价中期内仍有上涨空间。人民币汇率存在一定低估,汇率形成机制弹性化成为当务之急。最可能的升值方式仍是小幅渐进升值,但同时应控制热钱流入。2010年第2季度是人民币汇率弹性化的最佳时间窗口。
[Abstract]:China's aggregate demand has shown signs of overheating in in the first quarter of 2010, but growth for the full year remains uncertain, depending on how real estate investment and net export growth fluctuate. Analysis of imported inflationary pressure and base period effect the CPI growth rate may exceed 4% in July and August, thus increasing the probability of raising interest rates in the third quarter. From the perspective of liquidity, supply and demand gap and inflation expectations. House prices in the second quarter still have upward pressure, the second half of the trend of house prices uncertainty in April the new government regulatory measures will cause volume prices to fall in the short term, but if low interest rates and broad credit pattern does not change. There is still room for the rise of house prices in the medium term. The RMB exchange rate is somewhat undervalued, and the flexibility of exchange rate formation mechanism has become a top priority. The most likely way of appreciation is still a small gradual appreciation. But at the same time, hot money inflows should be controlled. In the second quarter of 2010 is the best time window for RMB exchange rate flexibility.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0
【正文快照】： 一、总需求在第1季度出现过热迹象,但全年增长形势仍具不确定性2010年第1季度GDP同比增速达到11.9%,环比折年率约为10.5%,这反映了经济3季增度长起强,劲中,国总G需DP求增热速度已较经高重。新通超过过用了H潜P在滤增波长法率衡,量产的出产缺出口缺由口负来转看正,。从2009第*，

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