丽江旅游股票投资价值分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 23:32

本文关键词：丽江旅游股票投资价值分析　出处：《西南交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：与欧美等国家和地区百年市场相比,我国1990年才正式建立中国证券市场,其资本市场还显得较为年轻,但随着我国近期A股市场的不断改革,特别是全流通后股指期货及融资融券业务的推出,做空机制和A股市场制度、功能的不断完善,以往那种靠跟庄、纯靠小道消息、纯K线技术投资的思路和方法,正与我们渐行渐远。与之对应,一些成熟的价值投资理念和基于实证的投资价值分析,正被越来越多的企业和有识之士广泛采用,人们理论上的不断归纳、概括和成功的产业实践,既给投资者以正确引领,也不断为规范中国证券和资本市场积累着丰富的经验。我国市场前景广阔的旅游行业,已显现出较大的发展空间,在未来经济转型过程中既有可能进一步得到国家政策的大力扶持,又可能继续受民众深度喜爱而前景广阔。据此,本文选取“丽江旅游”为研究标的,以实证研究和自上而下的方法,从宏观面分析入手,对旅游行业发展空间作初步评估,将“丽江旅游”所处的宏观面、行业发展趋势和公司自身的经营管理能力及发展规划等因素结合起来,并以此为基础对公司未来几年的业绩作出预测；运用各种估值理论体系对公司的价值进行测算、汇总；同时,将“丽江旅游”的估值结果与目前股票市场的系统风险系数相结合,进而进行重新投资的可行性评估,最终得出了“丽江旅游”公司目前的股价起码被低估20%以上和公司具备投资价值的结论。仔细探究,笔者发现：“丽江旅游”公司属于经营毛利率能够保持持续稳定且稳居于旅游行业领先地位的公司之一；多元化发展较为成功的旅游公司之一；股价属于波动性最小,经过市场的大起大落后公司仍然能保持着稳定向上的趋势；公司目前股本不大,属中小盘个股,按照股票市场的发展特征,公司股价具备快速成长的能力。综上所述可以看出“丽江旅游”在证券市场上具备了典型的“成长型”公司特征,存在着较大的发展潜力。乘势而为,“丽江旅游”公司在未来受到国家政策的大力扶持以及稳步占领市场的可能性大增。本文运用相对估值法、绝对估值法下公司的投资价值理论和估值、风险评析,解剖“麻雀”,对“丽江旅游”公司所作的投资价值分析,无疑给业内同仁提供着“理论联系实际之实证研究与运用”思考。尽管尚属一孔之见,但笔者仍然期望能给相关投资者和关心企业健康成长的各方仁人志士提供一些投资、研究的方法论参考。
[Abstract]:Compared with the market century Europe and other countries and regions, China in 1990 formally established Chinese securities market, the capital market is relatively young, but with the continuous reform of China's recent A stock market, especially the introduction of full circulation after the stock index futures and margin trading business, do empty mechanism and A stock market system. Continuously improve the function of the past that rely on, and rely on pure ideas and methods of pure hearsay, K-line technology investment, has gone. Correspondingly, some mature value investment theory and empirical investment value analysis, is widely adopted by more and more enterprises and a person with breadth of vision theoretical development, people. Summary and successful practices, not only provide investors with right guidance, continue to regulate Chinese securities and capital markets accumulated rich experience.
China's tourism industry, which has broad market prospects, has shown great room for development. In the process of economic transformation, it is possible to further support the national policies, and continue to be deeply loved by the masses.
Accordingly, this paper selects "Lijiang tourism" as the research object, using empirical research methods and top-down, starting from the analysis of the macro side, make a preliminary assessment of the tourism industry development space, the macro side will "Lijiang tourism" in the management and development planning and other factors the development trend of the industry and the company's own combination on this basis, and to predict the next few years the company's performance; using various valuation theory to calculate the value of the company, on the summary; at the same time, "Lijiang tourism" the results of the valuation and risk coefficient of current stock market combination, and then evaluate the feasibility of re investment, the conclusion is that the "Lijiang tourism" the company's current stock price is undervalued at least more than 20% and the company has investment value conclusion.
Careful inquiry, the author found that: "Lijiang tourism" belongs to the company operating margin to maintain steady and stable one of the tourism industry leading companies; one of the diversified development of successful tourism companies; stock price volatility is the smallest, after the market ups and downs, still maintained a steady upward trend of the company; at present, little is equity, small cap stocks, according to the characteristics of the development of the stock market, the company's share price has the capability of rapid growth. In conclusion we can see that the "Lijiang tourism" in the stock market has the typical characteristics of "growth" company, there is great potential for development. The momentum is, "Lijiang tourism" supported by national policy and the possibility of steadily occupy the market in the future increase.
This paper uses the relative valuation method, absolute valuation method under the company's investment value theory and valuation, risk assessment, analysis of the "sparrow", analysis of "Lijiang tourism" the investment value of the company, no doubt to the industry colleagues to provide "an empirical study with the use of" theory and Practice of thinking. Although it is a peephole view but the author. Still looking to the relevant investors and care for the healthy growth of enterprises of all parties to provide some reference on investment in men and women with high ideals, and research methods.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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