资本项目下人民币可兑换风险评估与防范策略

发布时间：2018-01-01 05:24

本文关键词：资本项目下人民币可兑换风险评估与防范策略　出处：《湖南大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人民币完全可兑换无疑是中国未来金融改革的一个重要战略目标，也是长期以来的一个既定目标。早在1993年，党的十四届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》就提出“逐步使人民币成为可兑换货币”；2005年，党的十六届五中全会通过的“十一五规划”再次提出“逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换”；2008年，国务院修订通过的《中华人民共和国外汇管理条例》为未来进一步改革明确了方向——继续稳步推进资本项目开放，实现人民币完全可兑换。在具体政策层面，自2002年特别是2005年7月汇改以来，资本项目开放进程重新提速。根据国家外汇管理局的统计，自2002年至2008年，调整涉及资本项目外汇管理的法规共有57个，其中涉及管制程度加强的17个，放松的40个。经过最近一段时间的改革，较多限制和严格管制的项目越来越少，中国严格的资本管制时代已经结束，较为开放的格局初步形成。与改革的渐进性所呈现的难易程度相一致，剩下的资本项目开放的难度和风险也在不断提高，项目的关联性和影响程度远大于目前已经开放的类别，未来实现资本项目完全可兑换进程是否平稳还存在相当的不确定性。开放资本项目会有多大风险？什么样的开放策略才能将风险降至最低？如何才能有效控制甚至消除这些风险？回答这三个问题对进一步加速推进资本项目自由化的中国而言，重要性是不言而喻的。本文先从资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性入题，明确研究的现实性和战略性，阐释研究的背景和意义；然后通过国别经验和实证研究，对资本项目下货币可兑换的风险展开全面分析，，梳理资本项目开放的各种风险以及它们形成的原因，并对资本项目可兑换与金融危机的关系进行历史回顾性探讨；再次具体从最小的资本项目分类出发探讨最优的开放策略和顺序，以及相应的风险控制措施，以提高理论对实践的指导能力；最后作为风险控制的根本手段，研究资本项目下货币可兑换进程中的风险监测和危机应急机制建设。在实证研究部分，本文首先以一个“可兑换促进经济增长”的计量回归模型从侧面论证资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性；然后利用一个存在“风险转移”、“信贷不确定”的数理模型，论证资本项目下货币可兑换可能通过信贷可得性增加风险的机制；最后在风险预警实证部分，以三个指标分析法模型评估中国金融安全的动态变化，分析资本项目下货币可兑换对金融安全的实际影响效果，同时又以状态转换模型对中国金融安全中期预测的可行性进行分析。本文认为，人民币完全可兑换是随着经济社会发展必然的演进目标，其中伴随着风险甚至可能导致危机的产生，也正因为如此，辨识风险来源，有计划地采取适当可兑换顺序、妥善构架严格的开放风险应对措施，建立全面的风险监测体系和危机应急机制才能有效控制风险，保证可兑换的顺利推进，并最终实现国民经济的福利最大化。
[Abstract]:Full convertibility of the renminbi is undoubtedly an important strategic goal Chinese future financial reform, has long been a goal. In early 1993, the Party adopted in the third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee < CPC Central Committee on some issues concerning the establishment of the socialist market economy "put forward" decided to gradually make the RMB became convertible in 2005 the fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, the party "; through the" 11th Five-Year plan "put forward again" gradually realize the convertibility of RMB capital account "; in 2008, the State Council revised the" People's Republic of China foreign exchange management regulations > clear direction - continue to steadily promote the opening of the capital projects for further reform in the future, full convertibility of RMB. In the specific policy level since 2002, especially since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the process of capital account opening to speed. According to the State Administration of foreign exchange The Bureau of statistics, from 2002 to 2008, the adjustment of the management of foreign exchange capital account regulations involving a total of 57, which involves the control degree of strengthening of the 17, 40 to relax. After the reform in recent days, many restrictions and strict control of the project is less and less, Chinese strict capital control era has ended, the more open the pattern shape.
Consistent with the progressive degree of difficulty of the reform, the rest of the capital account opening difficulty and risk is also rising, relevance and influence of the project is far greater than the currently open category, the future to achieve full convertibility of the capital account process is stable and there are still considerable uncertainty. The opening of the capital projects will be how much risk? What kind of strategy can open to minimize the risks? How to effectively control and even eliminate these risks? To answer these three questions to further accelerate the liberalization of capital projects to promote China, the importance is self-evident.
In this paper, the necessity of currency convertibility under the capital account, practical and strategic of the research background and significance, explains the research; and then through the international experience and empirical research, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the risk of currency convertibility under the capital account, all kinds of risk capital project open and sort out the reasons for their formation and on the relationship between capital account convertibility and financial crisis of historical retrospective study; again specifically from the minimal capital project classification of the optimal open strategy and order, and the corresponding risk control measures, in order to improve the ability to guide the theory on practice; finally, as the basic means of risk control, construction risk monitoring and emergency mechanism of Monetary Crisis Study on capital account convertibility process in.
In the part of empirical research, this paper takes an "convertible economic growth" econometric model from the necessity of currency convertibility under the capital side argument; then the existence of a "risk transfer", "mathematical model of credit uncertainty, currency convertibility under the capital account may be demonstrated through the credit mechanism of increased risk; in the last part of the dynamic changes of risk early warning, assessment China financial security based on three index analysis model, analysis of currency convertibility under the capital account the actual impact on financial security, feasibility analysis and state transition models to forecast the financial security Chinese mid-term.
This paper argues that the full convertibility of the renminbi is the inevitable evolution with the economic and social development goal, which is accompanied by the risk may even lead to a crisis, but also because of this, the identification of risk sources, there are plans to take appropriate account order, open risk response measures to properly frame strictly, to establish risk monitoring system and comprehensive crisis emergency mechanism the effective risk control, to ensure the smooth progress of convertibility, and ultimately maximize the welfare of the national economy.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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