湖北FDI、国际贸易与经济增长的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 19:38

本文关键词：湖北FDI、国际贸易与经济增长的相关性研究　出处：《中南民族大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：纵观全国，改革开放三十年来，中国经济快速增长，而贸易对于中国经济的增长起到重要作用。与此同时，外国直接投资一直稳居世界第二，大量的外国直接投资有效缓解了中国在经济发展初期资本和技术的匮乏。自上个世纪八十年代以来，特别是2000年以后，湖北省的经济得到了较快的发展，国际贸易和外国直接投资水平也有了长足的进步。1981-2010年湖北生产总值年均增幅高达23.82%，2011年达到19594.19亿元，与2010年的15967.61亿元相比增幅13.8%。在三大产业中增长最快的是第二产业，增幅17.9%，产值达9818.76亿元。进出口总额335.19亿元，增幅29.1%，其中出口195.35亿元，进口139.84亿元，增幅分别为35.3%和21.5%。实际外商直接投资46.5亿元，增幅14.9%。不可否认，贸易和外国直接投资对中国经济，尤其是东部沿海地区经济的高速增长起到重要作用。但是，湖北省国际贸易、外国直接投资的高速增长与经济增长之间是否存在必然的联系，国际贸易和外国直接投资对经济增长有怎样的影响？本文将就这些问题展开探讨，并利用湖北省近三十年的相关数据分析湖北省近些年来国际贸易、外商直接投资和经济增长的发展趋势，然后基于VAR模型的动态实证分析方法分析湖北FDI、进出口贸易对经济增长影响的相关性。文章首先总结了国内外学者关于国际贸易和外国直接投资与经济增长之间的关系和国际贸易、外国直接投资与经济增长相关性的研究成果，并对关于国际贸易、外国直接投资和经济增长的理论进行了总结分析，在此基础上分析了近年来湖北省国际贸易、外国直接投资和经济增长的发展情况和趋势，并运用VAR模型的动态实证分析方法，通过进行格兰杰因果关系检验、建立广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解模型，得出了国际贸易是湖北经济增长的原因，而外国直接投资对经济增长的贡献并不十分显著的结论。
[Abstract]:Throughout the country, during the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, while trade has played an important role in China's economic growth. At the same time, foreign direct investment (FDI) has consistently ranked second in the world. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has effectively alleviated China's lack of capital and technology in the early stages of its economic development. Since -20s, especially after 2000, the economy of Hubei Province has been developing rapidly. The level of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has also made great progress. The average annual growth rate of Hubei's GDP reached 23.82 yuan in 1981-2010, reaching one tillion nine hundred and fifty-nine billion four hundred and eighteen million nine hundred and ninety-nine thousand and nine hundred and ninety-nine yuan in 2011. In 2010, compared with one tillion five hundred and ninety-six billion seven hundred and sixty-one million yuan, the growth rate was 13.8%. Among the three major industries, the second industry had the fastest growth, with an increase of 17.9%. The output value reached nine hundred and eighty-one billion eight hundred and seventy-six million yuan. The total import and export value was thirty-three billion five hundred and nineteen million yuan, an increase of 29.1 yuan, of which nineteen billion five hundred and thirty-five million yuan was exported and thirteen billion nine hundred and eighty-four million yuan was imported. The real foreign direct investment was 4.65 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9 yuan. There is no denying that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) play an important role in the rapid growth of China's economy, especially in the eastern coastal areas. However, international trade in Hubei Province. Is there an inevitable link between the rapid growth of foreign direct investment and economic growth, and how does international trade and foreign direct investment affect economic growth? This paper will discuss these problems and analyze the development trend of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth of Hubei Province in recent years by using the relevant data of Hubei Province in the past 30 years. Then the dynamic empirical analysis method based on VAR model is used to analyze the correlation between import and export trade and economic growth. This paper first summarizes the research results of the relationship between international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth and the correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the theories of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth, this paper analyzes the development and trend of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Hubei Province in recent years. Using the dynamic empirical analysis method of VAR model, through Granger causality test, the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition model are established, and international trade is the reason of Hubei economic growth. The contribution of FDI to economic growth is not very significant.
【学位授予单位】：中南民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F127;F224

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