人民币汇率变动对我国茶叶出口贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 03:22

本文关键词：人民币汇率变动对我国茶叶出口贸易的影响研究　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国是茶叶生产以及出口大国，茶产业历年来一直是中国的传统产业也是我国出口创汇的重要农产品之一。但是，随着科技进步和其他茶叶生产国的崛起，中国茶叶在国际市场上的竞争压力日趋增大，内忧外患使得中国茶叶出口面临着巨大的挑战，“绿色壁垒”、茶叶的质量安全等成为阻碍我国茶叶出口的主要问题之一。同时在金融危机余波的影响下，各国为加速经济的蓬发，将矛头纷纷指向了中国，从各方面对人民币汇率升值施加压力，导致我国茶叶出口价格被动大幅提高。这就需要研究改善中国目前茶叶出口贸易的现状、寻求问题产生的根源，最终提出改善中国茶叶出口相应的对策，为中国茶叶出口的长远发展寻求突破口，以实现更大的收益。本文旨在在了解人民币汇率变动以及我国茶叶出口贸易发展现状的基础上，探寻两者之间的影响程度，并以1994-2011年度数据为基础，对我国茶叶出口贸易额与人民币汇率变动的相关性做描述性分析和回归分析，并对于两者的影响程度进行量化同时证实是否在茶叶出口贸易中确实存在滞后效应。最后针对现存问题提出相应的对策建议。本文首先对研究文献进行了简要的回顾，阐述了人民币汇率大幅升值以及我国茶叶出口贸易的特点、现状以及存在的问题，继而阐述了“马歇尔-勒纳条件”以及“J-曲线效应”相关贸易理论，并在收集了1994年至2011年茶叶出口贸易相关数据的基础上利用现代计量经济学方法进行检测，验证在我国茶叶对外贸易中是否确实存在“马歇尔-勒纳条件”“J-曲线效应”的现象。最后针对我国茶叶出口贸易中存在的问题结合实证分析的结果，提出了相应的政策建议，首先应在加强我国茶叶质量、制定更为有效的茶叶质量检验标准的同时增强我国茶叶的产业化发展；其次应加大科技方面的投入，寻求创新点，优化茶产品的贸易结构；再者应充分认识茶叶贸易中J-曲线变化趋势，开发茶叶出口潜力；最后利用我国的悠久历史文化优势，，创造具有国际知名度的自有茶品牌。最终促使我国的茶叶出口贸易由现在的价格竞争优势向技术品牌竞争优势的转变。通过实证与理论分析我们可以得出我国茶产业属于一般加工贸易产业，其主要竞争优势不同于其他国家以技术、品牌竞争优势为主的加工贸易产业，而是大部分仅仅依靠价格竞争优势，因此我国茶叶出口贸易会受到人民币汇率变动的影响且呈正相关关系。并且在假设成立的基础上，考虑到了汇率变动的影响要经过一段反应时间即时滞的效应，证实了J-曲线效应的存在性即汇率的变动对茶叶出口贸易的影响会有一年的滞后期。并经实证分析得出我国茶叶的生产总量对出口贸易的影响程度不大。
[Abstract]:China is a large country in tea production and export. Tea industry has been one of the traditional industries and one of the important agricultural products in China. However, with the development of science and technology and the rise of other tea producing countries. The competition pressure of Chinese tea in the international market is increasing day by day, the internal and external troubles make the Chinese tea export face the huge challenge, "green barrier". The quality and safety of tea has become one of the main problems hindering China's tea export. At the same time, under the influence of the aftermath of the financial crisis, in order to speed up the economic development, many countries have pointed the spearhead at China. Exerting pressure on RMB exchange rate appreciation from various aspects leads to the passive and substantial increase of Chinese tea export price, which needs to study and improve the current situation of China's tea export trade and seek the root cause of the problem. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to improve China's tea export, so as to seek a breakthrough for the long-term development of China's tea export. In order to achieve greater income. This paper aims to understand the RMB exchange rate changes and the current situation of China's tea export trade on the basis of exploring the impact between the two. Based on the data of 1994-2011, this paper makes a descriptive analysis and regression analysis on the correlation between China's tea export trade and the change of RMB exchange rate. The influence degree of both is quantified and the lag effect is proved to exist in tea export trade. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in view of the existing problems. This paper reviews the research literature briefly, expounds the characteristics, current situation and existing problems of the RMB exchange rate appreciation and China's tea export trade. Then it expounds the "Marshall-Lerner condition" and the "J- curve effect" related trade theory. And on the basis of collecting the data of tea export trade from 1994 to 2011, the modern econometric method is used to detect the data. To verify the existence of "Marshall-Lerner condition" and "J-curve effect" in China's tea foreign trade. Finally, the problems in China's tea export trade are analyzed in combination with the results of empirical analysis. The corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. Firstly, we should strengthen the quality of tea in our country and establish more effective inspection standards of tea quality, at the same time, we should strengthen the development of tea industrialization in our country. Secondly, we should increase investment in science and technology, seek innovation points and optimize the trade structure of tea products; Furthermore, we should fully understand the changing trend of J- curve in tea trade and develop the potential of tea export. Finally, we make use of our country's long history and culture advantage to create our own tea brand which has international fame. Finally, it makes our tea export trade change from the current price competitive advantage to the technological brand competitive advantage. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we can conclude that our tea industry belongs to the general processing trade industry, and its main competitive advantage is different from other countries' processing trade industry, which is dominated by technology and brand competition advantage. But most of them only depend on the price competitive advantage, so the tea export trade of our country will be affected by the RMB exchange rate change and have a positive correlation, and on the basis of the hypothesis. Considering the effect of exchange rate change, the effect of time lag is passed through a period of time. It is proved that the existence of J-curve effect is that the change of exchange rate will affect the tea export trade for one year, and the empirical analysis shows that the total production of tea in China has little influence on the export trade.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6;F326.12;F224

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