关于中国证券分析师盈余预测“乐观倾向”实证检验及成因分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 17:22

本文关键词：关于中国证券分析师盈余预测“乐观倾向”实证检验及成因分析　出处：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券分析师作为资本市场中的专业分析人员,他们无疑是一个特殊群体。他们搜集和分析上市公司的营业和财务的数据,有优于一般投资者的信息收集途径和专业分析能力；他们向资本市场参与者和部分非参与者,提供反映证券和公司投资价值的信息,降低证券市场内股票的价格偏离程度。他们促进了市场的有效性运行,他们的存在使得中国资本市场更加接近于一个有效的资本市场,并且有利于完善资本市场和督促公司完善公司治理结构,也有利于监管部门加强监管。而证券分析报告作为分析师传递信息最重要的工具和载体,他们的质量对稳定证券市场的作用无可替代。伴随着学术界越来越关注证券分析师的分析报告,很多学者提出来我国分析师的盈余预测存在“乐观倾向”的假说和猜想,如果这种倾向存在的话,那么就必要引起我们的关注。由于分析师的乐观倾向非常容易在市场中形成一种正的反馈推动机制,从而某种程度上推高市场整体价格水平,形成股市的非理性泡沫。例如,Miller(2002)指出,美国股市20世纪末的互联网泡沫部分原因就归咎于分析师的报告倾向的引导和推动。在我国,证券市场刚刚建立尚未成熟,非理性的股民更容易采取跟风行为,也就是所谓“羊群效应”,带有乐观倾向的证券分析师报告将对我国证券市场造成比美国更加严重的影响和后果。但是目前,国内几乎所有关于分析报告“乐观倾向”的研究和分析都局限在描述层面,而且样本数量不足,处在股市的上升通道的假说统计检验,加之不成熟市场的信息披露质量等问题,故而研究结果不足以让人完全信服,因此对目前学者提出的主要假说进行实证性检验非常必要,确定这种国外乐观倾向假说是否真的存在于中国股市,并寻找引起乐观倾向的主要因素,并进行检验。本文通过对2008-2011年四年的分析师预测数据的检验,得出尽管是在股市的非上升通道做的检验,乐观倾向确实存在。进而分析了分析师群体乐观倾向的身份原因,和基于行为金融理论的简单原因探讨。证券分析师是证券行业的“信息塔”和信息中枢,因为证券市场原有的不确定性的存在,证券分析师在工作时会遇到一些难以处理的专业问题问题和难以相处的客户。此时表现的就是证券分析师的专业素质和职业素养问题和自我认识。市场对证券分析师的要求是相对较高的,证券分析师的行为也对市场会造成一定的积极或者消极的影响。分析师客观信息接收的乐观存在,分析师主观判断权重的高存在状态,以及利益驱使的不真实意图判断,是出现乐观倾向的主要原因。也因而给监管机构,投资者,证券分析师评价机构,证券公司等市场参与者和监管者,提供了加强管理和增加投资收益的可能性。一方面可以为投资者提供参考的依据,促使投资者对分析师所提供信息的判断和利用,使投资者在投资决策过程中对证券分析师的预测保持足够的警惕和谨慎,从而在一定程度上缓解可能存在的泡沫和风险；更为重要的是,他可以为我国证券市场的监管机构和分析师队伍的行业规范和行为提供具体的政策意见。比如,对这些影响因素尽早隔离,制定严格行业规范,向美国会计师的独立性一样,保持分析师的主体地位,保护分析师的独立性。盈余预测,作为分析报告的主要内容之一,作为一个容易量化的数量指标,可以成为是我们检验分析报告的重要工具。因此可以说,对近年我国证券分析师盈余预测“乐观倾向”及其影响因素的实证分析无论从学术角度还是应用角度都有比较重要而深远的意义。
[Abstract]:Securities analysts as professional analysts in the capital market, they undoubtedly are a special group. They collect and analyze the listed company's operating and financial data, information collected way better than retail investors and professional analysis; to capital market participants and non participants, reflecting the value of securities and investment information, reduce the stock in the stock market price level of deviation. They promote the effectiveness of operation of the market, they are making China capital market closer to an effective capital market, and improve the capital market and to urge the company to improve the corporate governance structure, but also conducive to the supervision departments to strengthen supervision of securities analysis report. As an analyst to transmit information of the most important tool and carrier, the irreplaceable role of their quality on the stability of the securities market.
Along with the academic community pays more and more attention to the analysis of securities analysts, many scholars have proposed to our analysts' earnings forecasts exist optimistic tendency "hypothesis and conjecture, if this tendency exists, it is necessary to cause our attention. Because analysts optimistic tendency is very easy in the market to form a positive promote the feedback mechanism, which to some extent the market higher overall price level, the irrational bubble in the stock market. For example, Miller (2002) pointed out that the U.S. stock market in twentieth Century the Internet bubble of the late part of the reason is due to the tendency of analysts' reports to guide and promote. In China, the stock market just is not yet mature, non rational investors are more likely to adopt the herd behavior, the so-called" herding ", with optimistic tendencies securities analyst report on China's securities market caused more than America Serious effects and consequences.
But at present, the research and Analysis on almost all domestic research report optimistic tendency "are limited in the descriptive level and insufficient number of samples, the hypothesis of statistical tests in the stock market's rising channel, coupled with immature market information disclosure quality, so the research results should not be completely convincing, so empirical to test the main hypothesis at present scholars is very necessary to determine the foreign optimism hypothesis are really exist in the China stock market, and find out the main factors causing the optimistic tendency, and test.
This paper through the forecast data to test 2008-2011 four years that analysts, despite testing non increase in the stock market channel do, optimistic tendencies do exist. And then analyzes the reasons analysts optimistic about the tendency of group identity, and the simple reason based on behavioral finance theory study. Securities analyst is the securities industry's "information tower" and the information center, because the stock market uncertainty of the original securities analyst will encounter some difficult to deal with professional issues and difficult to get along with customers at work. The performance of securities analyst's professional quality and occupation accomplishment and self-awareness. The market demand for securities analysts is relatively high, securities the behavior of market analysts also cause some positive or negative impact. There are objective optimistic analysts received information, analysts subjective The main reason for the optimistic tendency is to judge the high existence state of the weight and the judgment of the untrue intention of the interest driven.
Thus to regulators, investors, securities analysts, rating agencies, securities companies and other market participants and regulators, provides the possibility to strengthen management and increase the investment income. On the one hand can provide reference for investors, prompting investors to analysts for the judgment and use of information, so that investors in the investment decision-making process to forecast security analysts maintain adequate vigilance and caution, so as to reduce the risk and possible bubble to a certain extent; more importantly, he can for China's securities market regulators and analysts team of industry norms and behavior to provide specific policy advice. For example, the impact of these factors as soon as possible to make strict isolation. The industry standard, as to the independence of the CPA, maintain the dominant position of the analyst, the protection of the independence of analysts. As earnings forecast, analysis One of the main contents of the report, as an easy quantified quantitative indicator, can be an important tool for our analysis of analysis reports.
Therefore, it can be said that the empirical analysis of the "optimism tendency" and its influencing factors of China's securities analysts' earnings forecasts in recent years is of great importance both from an academic point of view and from an applied perspective.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5;F224

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