汇率波动与国际资本流动结构

发布时间：2018-01-07 11:13

本文关键词：汇率波动与国际资本流动结构　出处：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文的目的是要通过理论和实证分析来确定汇率波动对国际资本流动结构的影响。本文主要分为六个部分。第一部分是引言,这部分介绍本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究方法和创新性。第二部分,我们回顾了前人对于相关领域的研究成果,评述了前人关于“国际资本流动结构理论”及“汇率-国际资本流动相关性理论”的论述,并初步发掘了可以进行理论拓展的领域。第三部分,我们确定了理论建立的方法,深入分析了信息不对称的影响,并将这种影响纳入到动态随机分析的框架之中,得到了汇率波动性加强会导致FDI在国际资本流动中比例的上升。第四部分,我们利用多国面板数据和PCSE方法估计了模型,我们发现汇率水平对于国际资本流动结构的影响有限,汇率波动对于国际资本流动结构的影响确实存在,而且这种影响会随着信息不透明度的上升而加大。第五部分,利用前面的结论,我们分析未来中国汇率走向浮动、资本项目放开后可能面临的一些问题,并提出了短期和长期的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the structure of international capital flows through theoretical and empirical analysis. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, this part introduces the research background, research significance, research methods and innovation. The second part. We review the previous research achievements in related fields, and comment on the theory of "the structure of international capital flows" and "exchange-international capital flow correlation theory". In the third part, we determine the method of establishing the theory and deeply analyze the influence of information asymmetry. And this impact into the dynamic random analysis framework, the exchange rate volatility will lead to an increase in the proportion of FDI in international capital flows. 4th part. We estimate the model by using multi-country panel data and PCSE method. We find that the effect of exchange rate level on the structure of international capital flows is limited, and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the structure of international capital flows exists. And this impact will increase with the increase of information opacity. Part 5th, using the previous conclusions, we analyze the future of China's exchange rate floating, capital account liberalization may face some problems. And put forward short-term and long-term policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F831.7;F224

【引证文献】