国际黄金价格长期变迁中的美元因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-10 00:17

本文关键词：国际黄金价格长期变迁中的美元因素分析　出处：《中国流通经济》2010年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在国际金价长期走势研究中,美元要素是非常值得重视的。本文主要以美元货币供应量(M2)、联邦利率、美国消费者物价指数和美元名义有效汇率四个指标作为美元因素的反映,分别对它们进行经济逻辑和数据关联性分析,剔除利率后采用协整模型和岭回归模型得出了金价的长期决定方程。研究结果表明,美元因素与金价确实存在很大的相关性,其中美元实际汇率是影响金价长期变迁最主要的因素。因此,建议黄金长期投资者关注美元货币供应量和汇率的变化,建议我国国际储备管理层关注美元国际货币地位的变化并以黄金作为对冲外汇风险的重要工具。
[Abstract]:In the international gold price long-term trend research, the dollar factor is very worthy of attention. This paper mainly based on the US dollar money supply M2, federal interest rate. The four indexes of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the nominal effective Exchange rate (NER) of the United States dollar are used as the reflection of the dollar factor, and the economic logic and the data relevance are analyzed respectively. The long-term determinant equation of gold price is obtained by using cointegration model and ridge regression model after the interest rate is excluded. The results show that there is a great correlation between the dollar factor and gold price. Among them, the real exchange rate of US dollar is the most important factor that affects the long-term change of gold price. Therefore, it is suggested that long-term gold investors should pay attention to the change of dollar money supply and exchange rate. It is suggested that China's international reserve management pay attention to the changes in the international currency status of the US dollar and use gold as an important tool to hedge foreign exchange risks.
【作者单位】：北方工业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：北京市学科与研究生教育数量经济重点学科建设专项基金(项目编号:PXM2010_014212_093659)资助
【分类号】：F831.54;F713.35
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出及文献回顾黄金随着布雷顿森林体系的瓦解而逐步失去了国际货币的地位,但其保值功能并未因此而消亡。不仅如此,黄金作为与现代信用货币对立的货币形态,其美元价格涨落无不体现了美元国际地位的强弱转换。特别是21世纪以来,美国经济经历了两次较大的衰退,美元不

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