钉住通货膨胀的货币政策在我国的实用性研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 17:28

本文关键词：钉住通货膨胀的货币政策在我国的实用性研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀钉住是一种抛弃以往如货币供应量等货币政策中介目标,采用单一的通货膨胀率作为衡量货币政策实施效果的标准的货币政策框架,即放弃中介目标,单纯以降低通货膨胀率为直接目标的货币政策。眼下中国正在进行朝向更具有弹性的汇率机制改革,但是国际经验表明,浮动的汇率制度容易使得货币政策操作缺乏“纪律”,带来严重的通货膨胀问题。近些年的国际实践表明,钉住通胀体系是解决这个问题的一个比较好的选择。而在实现钉住通胀制度过程中,为避免时间不一致问题,货币政策规则是必须的。从这个角度讲,对于一个没有永久固定其汇率的经济体而言,浮动汇率、盯住通货膨胀和货币政策规则的三者综合是一个合理健全的制度安排。本文首先介绍了钉住通胀在国际上的实施情况,然后给出学术界的理论化解释以及具体实施细则。本文着重分析了如果国内实施钉住通胀制度会有一些什么样的不同特点。本文将国内可能影响钉住通胀体系的经济环境主要概括为3点：(1)央行的公信力较低(2)金融体系市场化不发达(3)会遭受的外部冲击较多,因而经常导致产出、汇率以及利率的大幅度波动。基于此,本文通过一个以银行损失函数为基础的模型,通过模拟,展示了钉住通货膨胀货币政策体系的优越性,并具体分析了在我国的实际应用价值。钉住通货膨胀货币政策体系不仅仅体现一国央行对于通胀与产出之间的选择偏好,更是央行和公众交流的重要渠道。通过定期的召开货币政策委员会,公布会议细节以及央行的钉住通胀执行报告来达到另一种层面上的交流。本文在论述时着重指出,为了应付种种突发的事件,可以主要通过适合的目标通胀设计机制、增加政策透明度以及使用调整的通胀目标这三种方法来处理。在政策方面可以选择弹性目标通胀区间、坚持推进金融市场化进程等一系列措施。最后,本文认为,钉住通货膨胀制度具有其特有的优越性和解决经济问题的能力,可以在我国进行实际操作,用来解决通货膨胀的问题,但须要事先在国内进行一系列的政策调整,为该政策打好基础。并提出若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:Inflation pegging is a kind of monetary policy framework that abandons the monetary policy intermediary target such as money supply and adopts a single inflation rate as the standard to measure the effect of monetary policy implementation. Monetary policy with the sole aim of reducing inflation. China is now moving towards a more flexible exchange rate regime, but international experience shows that floating exchange rates tend to make monetary policy operations less disciplined. The international practice in recent years shows that pegging inflation system is a better choice to solve this problem, and in the process of realizing pegged inflation system. Monetary policy rules are necessary to avoid time inconsistency. In this sense, for an economy that does not have a permanent fixed exchange rate, the floating exchange rate. The integration of inflation and monetary policy rules is a reasonable and sound institutional arrangement. This paper first introduces the international implementation of pegging inflation. Then it gives the theoretical explanation and the detailed implementation rules of the academic circles. This paper focuses on the analysis of the different characteristics of the pegged inflation system if the domestic implementation of the pegged inflation system. The economic environment is mainly summarized as three points:. (. 1) the credibility of the central bank is relatively low (2) the financial system is underdeveloped) and will suffer more external shocks. This often leads to large fluctuations in output, exchange rates and interest rates. Based on this, this paper demonstrates the superiority of the monetary policy system of pegging inflation through a model based on bank loss function and simulation. The paper also analyzes the practical application value of pegged inflation monetary policy system in China, which not only reflects the choice preference between inflation and output of a country's central bank. It is also an important channel of communication between the central bank and the public. Release the details of the meeting and the central bank's pegged inflation performance report to achieve another level of communication. It can be dealt with mainly through suitable target inflation design mechanism, increasing policy transparency and using adjusted inflation target. Adhere to the promotion of financial marketization process and a series of measures. Finally, this paper believes that the pegged inflation system has its unique advantages and the ability to solve economic problems, can be used to solve the problem of inflation in China. However, it is necessary to carry out a series of policy adjustments in China in advance in order to lay a good foundation for the policy and put forward some policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0

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