消费储蓄结构与中美贸易失衡相关性研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 18:09

本文关键词： 消费储蓄结构经常项目余额协整检验　出处：《上海外国语大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国对美国持续贸易顺差，这种国际收支的不平衡状态已经引发了一连串的宏观经济问题。引起这种持续顺差的原因是什么？国内外的学者从汇率角度、直接投资角度等不同的角度进行了研究。本文以中美两国不同的消费储蓄结构为切入点，通过理论分析和定量分析，来解释中美消费储蓄结构对中美贸易失衡的影响力度和影响途径，以期对中美两国间的巨额贸易收支差额进行解释。本文的主体内容分为绪论、中美贸易及消费储蓄结构现状、中美贸易不平衡的理论分析、消费储蓄结构对中美经常项目余额影响的实证分析、研究结论与对策建议五个部分。本文的主要研究方法为理论研究与实证分析相结合。理论研究方面主要运用了开放经济中储蓄—投资—贸易理论以及开放经济下国际资本流动理论。在实证分析中，首先针对中美两国1993-2010年的相关经济数据进行分析，针对美国高消费低储蓄和中国低消费高储蓄的状况，，对美国的消费水平和贸易余额之间的相关性进行检验，对中国的储蓄投资水平和贸易余额之间的相关性进行检验，并对数据的平稳性，协整性及因果关系进行检验，最终证明了消费储蓄结构与经常项目的余额有长期稳定的关系。对中国来说，要改变当前不断扩大的贸易顺差，必须调整内部的经济结构，扩大内需，减小储蓄，这意味着中国的经济增长模式需从投资拉动和出口拉动模式转向需求拉动模式。为了在国际贸易中争取到更多的利益和发展空间，我们不仅需要改变贸易模式和升级产业结构等，也需要深入调整消费储蓄结构。
[Abstract]:China's persistent trade surplus with the United States, a balance-of-payments imbalance, has caused a series of macroeconomic problems. What is the cause of this persistent surplus? Scholars at home and abroad from the exchange rate perspective, direct investment perspective and other different angles of study. This paper takes the different consumption and savings structure of China and the United States as the starting point, through theoretical analysis and quantitative analysis. To explain the impact of consumption savings structure on Sino-US trade imbalance and ways to explain the huge trade balance between China and the United States. The main content of this paper is divided into the introduction, the current situation of Sino-US trade and consumption savings structure, the theoretical analysis of Sino-US trade imbalance, and the empirical analysis of the impact of consumption savings structure on the current account balance between China and the United States. The conclusions and suggestions of the study are five parts. The main research methods of this paper are the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis. The theory of saving-investment-trade in open economy and the theory of international capital flow in open economy are mainly used in the theoretical research. Analysis. Firstly, the economic data of China and the United States from 1993 to 2010 are analyzed, and the situation of high consumption and low saving in the United States and low consumption and high savings in China are analyzed. The correlation between the consumption level and the trade balance of the United States is tested, and the correlation between the level of savings and investment in China and the balance of trade is tested, and the stability of the data is analyzed. The cointegration and causality tests prove that the consumption savings structure has a long-term stable relationship with the current account balance. For China, to change the current expanding trade surplus, we must adjust the internal economic structure, expand domestic demand, and reduce savings. This means that China's economic growth model needs to shift from investment-driven and export-led to demand-driven, in order to gain more benefits and development space in international trade. We not only need to change the trade model and upgrade the industrial structure, but also need to adjust the consumption savings structure.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.22;F224

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