货币中性与非中性：理论及基于中国的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 01:55

本文关键词： 货币中性货币非中性 VAR 模型 VEC　出处：《广东商学院》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1997年亚洲金融危机以来，伴随着美国金融服务现代化法案的出台，国际金融市场迎来了空前的大发展，金融工具的创新时国际资金的趋利特征更为明显，然而世界经济一体化不仅为中国等新兴国家带来了机遇，与此同时也极大冲击了本国的金融体系。自从加入了世界贸易组织，我国正面临着的日趋复杂的国际金融市场与经济形势变革的双重考验。回顾近来年我国货币政策操作的历史，中国人民银行始终将货币政策目标固定为高增长、低通胀，，但却收效甚微。在2007年世界金融危机仍旧蔓延的国际背景下，央行货币政策的制定也变得越来越艰难。归根结底，货币是否中性是实施货币政策的前提和关键所在。更进一步说，我国货币的中性问题直接涉及到货币政策有效性以及如何制定货币政策的问题，因此，有必要对我国的货币中性问题进行深入的研究。本文正是在这样的背景下，以我国的货币供应量为研究对象，采用理论与实证相结合的方法，研究我国的货币中性问题。首先对货币中性问题进行理论回顾，将经典的货币中性与非中性理论进行阐述；其次，将已有的关于货币中性问题的理论进行归纳和比较；然后，根据我国货币政策的实际情况进行理论和实证研究，并根据实证分析的结果提出相应的政策建议。具体而言，本文分为五章。第一章，导论部分，主要阐明写作本文的背景、相关文献以及写作思路、创新之处。第二章介绍了货币中性与非中性理论，主要包括货币中性论、货币非中性论以及货币中性与非中性共生论。第三章分析了中国的货币中性问题，提出了本文对于中国货币性质的见解并进行了详尽的解释，得出我国货币在短期是非中性的，而在长期是中性的。第四章，主要是对运用相关的数据,运用单位根检验、VAR模型、协整检验、VEC模型格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解和等计量经济学方法对于我国货币是否中性进行实证研究。第五章,据实证研究的结果来进行分析，并提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, with the introduction of the American Financial Services Modernization Act, the international financial market has ushered in an unprecedented development, the innovation of financial instruments when the characteristics of international funds more obvious. However, the integration of the world economy has not only brought opportunities to China and other emerging countries, but also greatly impacted the financial system of China since its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our country is facing the double test of the increasingly complex international financial market and the change of the economic situation. Looking back on the history of monetary policy operation in China in recent years, the people's Bank of China has always fixed the monetary policy target as high growth. Inflation is low, but little has been achieved. In 2007, as the world financial crisis continued to spread, central bank monetary policy formulation became increasingly difficult. In the final analysis, whether the currency is neutral is the premise and key to implement monetary policy. Furthermore, the neutral problem of monetary in our country is directly related to the effectiveness of monetary policy and how to formulate monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a deep study on the monetary neutrality in China. This paper takes the money supply of our country as the research object under this background, and adopts the method of combining theory and practice. This paper studies the monetary neutrality in China. Firstly, it reviews the theory of monetary neutrality, and expounds the classical monetary neutral and non-neutral theories. Secondly, the existing theories on monetary neutrality are summarized and compared. Then, according to the actual situation of China's monetary policy, the theoretical and empirical studies are carried out, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward according to the results of the empirical analysis. Specifically, this paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter, introduction, mainly explains the background, relevant literature, writing ideas and innovations. The second chapter introduces the theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, including monetary neutrality, monetary non-neutrality and monetary neutrality and non-neutral symbiosis. The third chapter analyzes the monetary neutrality in China, puts forward the views of the nature of Chinese currency in this paper and gives a detailed explanation. It is concluded that Chinese currency is neutral in the short term and neutral in the long run. In Chapter 4th, we mainly use the relevant data, using the unit root test / VAR model, cointegration test / Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis. Variance decomposition and equivalent econometrics are used to study whether the currency is neutral in China. Chapter 5th, according to the results of empirical research to analyze, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822;F224

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