公司因素对证券分析师盈利预测准确性的影响

发布时间：2018-01-23 00:33

本文关键词： 证券分析师盈利预测准确性公司因素　出处：《华中科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券分析师(Securities Analyst)是指服务于机构以及个人投资者，向其提供投资分析意见，并指导其投资行为的专业人士。由于证券市场的投资者受专业知识以及分析水平的限制，，无法对上市公司的信息进行有针对性地搜集，并进行全面地分析，证券分析师的出现填补了这一空白。证券分析师盈利预测在一定程度上为投资者进行有效投资提供了指导作用。因此研究证券分析师盈利预测的准确性及其影响因素对于提高证券市场效率有着非常重要的现实意义。本文在总结国内外学者研究的基础上，以2010-2011年被证券分析师关注的创业板上市公司为研究样本，利用多元线性回归模型，从公司基本特征、公司财务特征、公司治理结构、公司信息披露状况这几个公司因素出发，研究公司因素对于分析师盈利预测准确性的影响。研究发现：（1）将证券分析师盈利预测误差分成“具有较高的可靠性”、“一定的准确性”、“发生了重大的预测误差”这三种状态进行研究发现，前两种状态的样本量所占比重接近60%，表明证券分析师对于创业板上市公司盈利预测的准确性相对较高。将证券分析师盈利预测误差分成大于零和小于零的两组进行研究，结果表明盈利预测误差大于零的样本所占比重较高，说明证券分析师盈利预测呈乐观的正向偏差。（2）本文将公司因素分为公司基本特征、公司财务特征、公司治理结构以及信息披露质量四个方面进行实证研究，研究结果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、无形资产占比与盈利预测准确性负相关；上市公司营利的可预测性、发展能力、信息披露质量与盈利预测准确性正相关。（3）本文将盈利预测误差分为乐观的正向偏差与悲观的负向偏差两组进行实证研究，研究结果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、无形资产占比、营利的可预测性、发展能力、信息披露质量这几个因素影响证券分析师预测的正向偏差；无形资产占比、盈余波动性、净利润增长率、机构持股比例影响证券分析师预测的负向偏差。
[Abstract]:Securities analyst refers to serving both institutional and individual investors and providing them with investment analysis advice. Because the investors in the securities market are restricted by their professional knowledge and analysis level, they can not collect the information of listed companies in a targeted way and make a comprehensive analysis. The emergence of securities analysts fills this gap. To a certain extent, the earnings forecast of securities analysts provides guidance for investors to invest effectively. Therefore, the accuracy and impact of earnings forecasts of securities analysts are studied. Factors to improve the efficiency of the securities market has a very important practical significance. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' research, this paper takes the listed companies listed on the gem, which has been concerned by the securities analysts in 2010-2011, as the research sample and uses the multiple linear regression model to analyze the basic characteristics of the companies. Based on corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and corporate information disclosure, this paper studies the impact of corporate factors on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. 1) dividing the profit forecast error of securities analyst into three kinds of states: "having high reliability", "certain accuracy" and "significant prediction error". The sample size of the first two states is close to 60%. It shows that the accuracy of earnings forecast of gem listed companies is relatively high. The error of earnings forecast of securities analysts is divided into two groups: greater than zero and less than zero. The results show that the proportion of the sample whose error of earnings forecast is greater than zero is higher, which indicates that the positive deviation of earnings forecast of securities analysts is optimistic. In this paper, the company factors are divided into four aspects: corporate basic characteristics, corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and the quality of information disclosure. The research results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies. The proportion of intangible assets is negatively correlated with the accuracy of earnings forecast; The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure are positively related to the accuracy of profit prediction. This paper divides the profit forecast error into two groups: optimistic positive deviation and pessimistic negative deviation. The results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies, the proportion of intangible assets. The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure affect the positive deviation of the forecast of securities analysts; The share of intangible assets, earnings volatility, net profit growth and institutional shareholdings affect the negative bias of equity analysts' forecasts.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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