信贷抑制与农户投资回报——云南、宁夏农户调查案例分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 06:36

本文关键词： 农村金融信贷抑制农户投资区域转换模型　出处：《上海经济研究》2010年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文研究了阻碍我国农户得到正式信贷服务的主要因素,以及这种信贷抑制对于农户的投资效率造成的后果。利用2006年作者对云南、宁夏省700多个农户进行调查得到的数据,我们使用probit模型和内生区域转换模型(regime switching model)进行实证分析。结果表明,财富水平与农户的信贷抑制存在倒U形的关系,缺乏信用记录、缺乏关系的农户容易受到信用社和银行的信贷配给;在生产方面,非正式信贷没有能够弥补正式信贷不足导致的负面效应;受到信贷抑制的农户的投资回报远远高于未受到信贷抑制的农户,表明从整体来看,投资效率存在很大的改进余地。这些结果给农村金融市场改革提供了启示:我们需要特别关注那些受到信贷抑制的农户。要改善对他们的金融服务,必须重视农村金融市场的信息不对称特征,推动更适合农村的金融中介(如小额信贷)的发展;而最贫困的农户不可能仅仅依赖金融改革提高收入,因为他们缺乏投资机会和贷款需求。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the main factors hindering farmers' access to formal credit services and the consequences of this kind of credit restraint on the investment efficiency of farmers. Data from more than 700 farmers in Ningxia province. We use the probit model and the endogenous region transformation model to carry out the empirical analysis. The results show that. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the wealth level and the credit suppression of farmers, and the lack of credit record, the lack of relationship between the farmers and the credit cooperatives and banks are vulnerable to credit rationing; In terms of production, informal credit has not been able to compensate for the negative effects of inadequate formal credit; The return on investment of farmers who are restrained by credit is much higher than that of farmers who are not restrained by credit, which indicates that from the overall view. There is a lot of room for improvement in investment efficiency. These results provide inspiration for rural financial market reform: we need to pay special attention to those farmers who are constrained by credit and improve their financial services. We must pay attention to the asymmetric information characteristics of rural financial markets and promote the development of more suitable financial intermediaries (such as micro-credit); The poorest farmers cannot rely solely on financial reforms to raise incomes because they lack investment opportunities and loan demand.
【作者单位】：上海电力学院经济与管理学院;上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70703023和70673065) 中国博士后基金资助项目(502000_X90802) 上海哲学社会科学规划项目(2007EJB007)的资助
【分类号】：F832.43;F323.9;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言大量农户无法得到及时有效的金融服务，是过去几十年中许多发展中国家所面临的棘手问题之一(Yaron et al.(1997))。当农户的投资和生产受到信贷抑制时，他将不得不牺牲部分甚至全部有利可图的投资机会，，以保证消费不至于出现太大的波动，这对农户和社会都意味着资源

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